‘The battlefield is about to shift’: West Bank braces for rising violence

When the Gaza ceasefire was announced connected January 15, Palestinians successful the occupied West Bank were overjoyed that Israel’s devastating warfare connected the besieged enclave would yet end.

However, Israeli authorities violence has rapidly escalated crossed the West Bank in what section monitors and analysts picture arsenic an evident effort to formally annex much land.

The abrupt uptick successful settler attacks and Israeli subject operations has frightened Palestinians successful the occupied territory, who judge they could present look the aforesaid benignant of unit meted retired to their countrymen and women successful Gaza. Israel has killed much than 46,900 Palestinians successful Gaza since its warfare started connected the enclave successful October 2023.

“We watched a genocide unfold successful Gaza for 14 months and cipher successful the satellite did thing to halt it and immoderate radical present deliberation we’ll endure a akin fate,” said Shady Abdullah, a writer and quality rights activistic from Tulkarem.

“We each cognize we fearfulness that the concern could get overmuch worse present successful the West Bank,”  helium told Al Jazeera.

A Palestinian younker sifts done the aftermath of an onslaught by suspected Israeli settlers successful the West Bank colony of Jinsafut, Tuesday, January 21, 2025 [Majdi Mohammed/AP Photo]

Shifting battlefield

Hours aft the Gaza ceasefire began connected January 19, Israel began erecting dozens of caller checkpoints successful the West Bank to forestall Palestinians from gathering and celebrating the merchandise of governmental prisoners, who were fto spell successful a swap for Israeli captives held by Hamas arsenic portion of the deal.

The checkpoints besides prohibited farmers from reaching their farmlands and sealed civilians successful full cities, specified arsenic successful Hebron and Bethlehem.

Israeli settlers past began expanding amerciable outposts successful the West Bank and attacking Palestinian villages. Israeli settlements successful the occupied West Bank are illegal nether planetary law, and galore of the haphazardly constructed outposts are adjacent illegal nether Israeli law, though often small is done to region them, and galore aboriginal go formalised.

“The implications of the unit is that it leads to nonstop oregon associated displacement and that falls successful enactment with Israel’s nonsubjective of preventing immoderate Palestinian authorities connected their land,” said Tahani Mustafa, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with International Crisis Group.

In addition, the Israeli service announced plans to transportation retired large operations successful the West Bank, which began connected January 21 with a major incursion into Jenin camp, ostensibly to basal retired equipped groups. Israeli raids connected the West Bank predated the warfare connected Gaza, but scaled up successful unit and strength with the onset of the war.

“The settler unit and incursions we are seeing … is an indicator of wherever we are heading now,”  Mustafa told Al Jazeera.

Trade-off?

The uptick successful unit has led immoderate to judge that caller United States President Donald Trump made a trade-off with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to intermission the warfare connected Gaza successful speech for stepping up aggression successful the West Bank.

“The ceasefire successful Gaza – which looks much similar a humanitarian intermission and “trade of hostages and prisoners” – comes with a price. Israel ne'er ever relinquishes thing without a terms to beryllium paid and I deliberation we are seeing that successful the West Bank, fixed the benignant of [officials] the Trump medication is composed of,” Mustafa said.

Trump has not indicated that determination is immoderate benignant of woody with Netanyahu to let him to summation unit successful the West Bank, but helium has besides refused to perpetrate to a two-state solution, and has nominated respective figures who are opposed to Palestinian statehood to salient positions successful his administration.

The imaginable for an accrued crackdown connected Palestinian fighters successful the West Bank, arsenic good arsenic the maturation of amerciable settlements and adjacent imaginable annexation, appears to person incentivised Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to stay successful Netanyahu’s frail coalition, alternatively than propulsion retired and illness the authorities arsenic a mode to protestation the ceasefire successful Gaza.

Under Smotrich, Israel has quietly confiscated much onshore successful the West Bank implicit the past twelvemonth than it has successful the past 20 years combined, according to Peace Now, an Israeli nonprofit monitoring onshore grabs.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich supports the annexation of the occupied West Bank [File: Amir Cohen/Reuters]

Both Smotrich and the broader settler question person agelong viewed the occupied West Bank arsenic an integral portion of “greater Israel”, and notation to the territory arsenic Judea and Samaria.

Smotrich’s accelerated annexation of the West Bank went mostly unnoticed owed to the overmuch larger situation successful Gaza, where, successful summation to the wide sidesplitting of Palestinians, astir the full pre-war colonisation of 2.3 cardinal radical were uprooted and displaced.

Settler attacks

Palestinians crossed the occupied West Bank present accidental that settlers are stepping up attacks successful coordination with the Israeli service to confiscate and prehend much land.

On January 20, settlers violently attacked 2 villages successful the bluish West Bank, Funduq and Jinasfut, arsenic good arsenic villages further southbound successful Masafer Yatta and astir Ramallah.

The settlers acceptable homes and cars ablaze and bushed up Palestinians nether the afloat extortion and watchful oculus of the Israeli army, according to section rights groups.

However, the caput of the Israeli army’s Central Command, General Avi Bluth, said successful a connection that immoderate “violent riot harms information and the service volition not let it”.

The attacks came during Trump’s inauguration arsenic US president – successful 1 of his archetypal actions arsenic president he reversed sanctions connected groups and individuals who the US had antecedently deemed portion of the “extremist settler movement”.

“The purpose of the settlers is known,” said Abbas Milhem, the enforcement manager of the Palestinian Farmers Union. “They privation to transportation Palestinians extracurricular of the West Bank and annex the onshore to Israel and enforce Israeli law.”

Ghassan Aleeyan, a Palestinian surviving successful Bethlehem, expressed his vexation to Al Jazeera.

“What these radical are doing is illegal, but they don’t attraction astir planetary law, oregon Palestinian instrumentality oregon Israeli law,” helium told Al Jazeera. “They don’t adjacent attraction astir God’s law.”

Raid connected Jenin

In aboriginal December, equipped groups successful Jenin began clashing with the Palestinian Authority (PA), an medication created arsenic a effect of the 1993 Oslo Accords.

The accords jump-started a now-defunct bid process that ostensibly aimed to found a Palestinian authorities crossed the occupied Palestinian territory, with East Jerusalem arsenic its capital.

A cardinal constituent of the Oslo Accords was tasking the PA with rooting retired and disarming equipped groups arsenic portion of its information coordination with Israel.

But arsenic hopes for statehood faded and Israel entrenched its occupation, a fig of neighbourhood equipped groups loosely connected with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas and adjacent Fatah – the faction successful power of the PA – emerged successful Palestinian camps crossed the West Bank.

With the PA incapable to crush the equipped groups successful Jenin camp, Israel launched a large cognition connected January 21, which has already killed astatine slightest 10 people.

Local monitors told Al Jazeera that Israel is justifying its cognition nether the guise of buttressing Israel’s information and ensuring that different October 7-style battle does not occur, adjacent though the equipped groups successful the West Bank are acold little susceptible and organised than Hamas successful Gaza.

“We judge Israel’s program is to onslaught the northbound of the West Bank successful the aforesaid mode it did during the 2nd Intifada erstwhile it invaded Palestinian camps,” said Murad Jadallah, a quality rights show with al-Haq, a Palestinian rights group.

Israel antecedently occupied the Jenin campy for 10 days successful 2002, destroying astir 400 houses and displacing astir a 4th of the residents during the 2nd Intifada successful 2002, according to the UN Palestinian exile bureau (UNRWA).

Mustafa, from the ICG, believes Israel volition behaviour much incursions and large subject operations crossed the West Bank successful the coming days successful an effort to crush each forms of resistance.

“The battlefield is astir to displacement from Gaza to the West Bank,” she said.