‘Too early to rejoice’: Why Russia isn’t celebrating Trump win – yet

When Donald Trump archetypal took the United States presidency aft winning the 2016 election, determination were hopes successful Moscow that the billionaire-turned-politician would beryllium friendlier to Russia’s interests.

It didn’t exactly play retired that way. Despite indictments of aggregate Trump associates implicit allegations that the Kremlin tried to sway elections successful Trump’s favour, helium amped up sanctions against Moscow and boosted Ukraine’s antiaircraft capabilities with Javelin missiles erstwhile successful office.

Now 8 years aboriginal with Trump winning the statesmanlike contention this week by defeating Vice President Kamala Harris, the absorption from the Kremlin has truthful acold been acold much muted.

While a watercourse of satellite leaders – from French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to NATO main Mark Rutte and Chinese President Xi Jinping – has congratulated Trump connected his win, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not. This contrasts with 2016 erstwhile Putin was among the archetypal satellite leaders to congratulate Trump connected his electoral victory.

“Let’s not hide that we are talking astir an unfriendly country, which is some straight and indirectly progressive successful the warfare against our state,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday morning.

Peskov added that Putin has nary plans to congratulate Trump successful the adjacent aboriginal and alternatively volition hold to spot however helium acts erstwhile successful office.

“Once [in the Oval Office], statements tin sometimes instrumentality connected a antithetic tone. That’s wherefore we accidental we are cautiously analysing everything, monitoring everything, and we volition gully conclusions from circumstantial words and factual actions,” Peskov said.

By contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rapidly congratulated Trump connected an “impressive” victory.

According to Alexey Malinin, Moscow-based laminitis of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation and a subordinate of the Digoria Expert Club, Trump’s triumph is impervious that American voters are much funny successful solving home problems than planetary politics.

“But, of course, nary 1 expects Trump to wantonness overseas argumentation issues,” Malinin told Al Jazeera. “He has already announced that determination volition beryllium nary wars during his term, from which 1 could reason that helium plans to extremity the struggle successful Ukraine and the Middle East.”

Malinin, however, cautioned against overstating however overmuch Trump mightiness beryllium capable to alteration Washington’s overseas argumentation direction, adjacent with a Republican bulk successful Congress. Republicans person regained power of the US Senate, but results for the House of Representatives are inactive inconclusive.

“In my opinion, it is decidedly excessively aboriginal to rejoice,” Malinin said.

Malinin argued that it would beryllium “impossible” for Trump to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine connected his own. “It volition not beryllium imaginable to extremity it done immoderate coercion of Russia, and the conditions acceptable to america whitethorn not suit some the Americans and galore of Ukraine’s sponsors successful Europe. They volition say, ‘So overmuch wealth has already been spent. Is it truly each successful vain?’”

He besides questioned whether Trump would beryllium capable to enforce bid connected the Middle East – adjacent if by further strengthening Israel’s hands successful its warfare connected Gaza and Lebanon.

Still, analysts said that portion the Kremlin understands it volition not ever spot oculus to oculus with the adjacent White House tenant, it whitethorn possibly bask a small much flexibility with Trump than it would person nether Harris, who was expected to proceed arming and financing Ukraine.

“Trump has 1 prime that is utile for us: As a businessman to the core, helium mortally dislikes spending wealth connected assorted hangers-on – connected idiotic allies, connected anserine foundation projects and connected gluttonous planetary organisations,” hawkish erstwhile President Dmitry Medvedev wrote connected Telegram. “Toxic Ukraine of Bandera stands successful that aforesaid row. The question is however overmuch volition they unit Trump to springiness for the war. He is stubborn, but the strategy is stronger.”

Medvedev was referring to Stepan Bandera, the Ukrainian ultranationalist who allied with Nazi Germany during World War II and is present a leader successful Ukraine.

Political advisor Ilya Gambashidze echoed Medvedev’s remarks, calling the president-elect an “excellent” businessman “who is much funny successful commercialized than successful war”.

“Many radical accidental that Trump is simply a pro-Russian president oregon adjacent ‘a person of Putin’,” Gambashidze told Al Jazeera. “But we don’t request him successful that relation astatine all. We don’t expect him to beryllium a person to Russia.”

Russia, helium said, “doesn’t request sympathy oregon assistance from Trump”.

“It would beryllium much than capable if helium focused connected helping the US – the American system and societal sphere. This would mean that helium would displacement from confrontation with Russia to constructive and pragmatic relations,” Gambashidze said. “We would similar to accidental to Trump: Make trade, not war, and everything volition beryllium fine.”

Yet, determination are chartless elements to Trump’s overseas argumentation attack – and those who volition execute it – that could airs risks from Russia’s perspective.

“We don’t yet cognize whom Trump volition enactment successful complaint of overseas policy,” warned Ilya Budraitskis, a Russian historian, societal idiosyncratic and present a visiting student astatine the University of California, Berkeley.

“We person [Vice President-elect] JD Vance, who believes it’s imaginable to assistance definite concessions to Moscow [regarding Ukraine], but if it’s idiosyncratic similar [former UN Ambassador during Trump’s archetypal term] Nikki Haley, she’s taken a precise hard stance connected Russia.”

He besides pointed retired however Trump’s relations with Russia’s allies, particularly China and Iran, would impact Moscow.

“We besides request to instrumentality a look astatine the bigger picture. Trump considers China to beryllium his chief strategic competitor, and he’s indicated helium volition beryllium bolder towards Iran.”

Russian citizens are divided excessively implicit what Trump genuinely represents.

“In Russia, those who are smarter deliberation that he’s conscionable arsenic overmuch of a figurehead arsenic the different presidents and the American strategy of powerfulness won’t fto him bash what helium wants,” said Katherine, a clinician successful St Petersburg. “And those who are little educated deliberation that he’s a large guy. And galore are besides amazed – wherefore and for what specifically the elites successful America and our erstwhile absorption hatred him truthful much. Like, what did helium bash to them all?”

And what does Katherine think?

“I don’t truly attraction what happens implicit there, truthful agelong arsenic our warfare is over,” she said.

Others who are much captious of Russia’s warfare connected Ukraine interest astir the consequences of Trump’s win.

“There volition beryllium little enactment for Ukraine, and that sucks,” Moscow-based Anya B said.

“On the 1 hand, of course, the extremity of the warfare would beryllium cool, but if enactment for Ukraine by different countries, chiefly the US, ends, past what volition the extremity of the warfare look like? Destruction of Ukraine? He [Putin] won’t halt arsenic it goes.”