Top political handicapper reveals prediction for 'volatile' 2026 battle for House majority

The combat for power of the House of Representatives successful the 2026 midterm elections volition beryllium fought connected a constricted battlefield, a starring nonpartisan governmental handicapper predicts.

The Cook Political Report, arsenic it unveiled its archetypal rankings for the adjacent midterm elections connected Thursday, listed 10 Democrat-held seats and 8 Republican-controlled seats arsenic toss-ups. 

The GOP, erstwhile astatine afloat strength, volition clasp a razor-thin 220-215 bulk successful the House, which means the Democrats lone request a three-seat summation successful 2026 to triumph backmost the enclosure for the archetypal clip successful 4 years.

"Another Knife Fight for the Majority" is the header the Cook Report utilized to picture the House showdown ahead.

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And Cook Report steadfast and editor-in-chief Amy Walter spotlighted successful a societal media station that a "Small playing tract + volatile governmental clime = epic conflict for House control."

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The 10 House Democrats whose re-elections are listed arsenic toss-ups are: Reps. Adam Gray of California (CA-13); Derek Tran of California (CA-45); Jared Golden of Maine (ME-02); Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico (NM-02); Laura Gillen of New York (NY-04); Don Davis of North Carolina (NC-01); Marcy Kaptur of Ohio (OH-09); Emilia Sykes of Ohio (OH-13); Vicente Gonzalez of Texas (TX-34); and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington State (WA-03).

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine speaks astatine a quality league astatine the State House successful Augusta, Maine, connected Nov. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

The 8 Republicans spotlighted by the Cook Report arsenic susceptible are: Reps. David Schweikert of Arizona (AZ-01); Juan Ciscomani of Arizona (AZ-06); Gabe Evans of Colorado (CO-08); Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa (IA-01); Tom Barrett of Michigan (MI-07); Don Bacon of Nebraska (NE-02); Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania (PA-07); and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania (PA-10).

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Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa speaks with section farmers connected the acceptable of the "Barn Talk" podcast connected the Whisler household workplace adjacent Washington, Iowa, connected Nov. 1, 2024. (Nick Rohlman/The Gazette via AP)

Republicans are not lone defending a razor-thin bulk but are besides facing humanities headwinds, arsenic the enactment successful powerfulness traditionally faces electoral headwinds successful the midterms.

President Donald Trump recaptured the White House, the Republicans flipped power of the Senate, and the GOP held connected to its fragile House bulk successful November's elections.

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But the Cook Report's Erin Covedy and Matthew Klein noted that "though their bulk is dangerously thin, successful immoderate ways, Republicans are starting retired successful a stronger presumption than they were successful 2018. Trump’s latest triumph was broad; helium clawed backmost crushed successful suburbs that had lurched to the near since 2016 and made monolithic inroads successful municipality areas."

They added that "almost each of the astir competitory House districts moved to the close betwixt 2020 and 2024 (Washington’s 3rd District was the lone exception)."

The U.S. Capitol successful Washington, D.C., is seen connected Dec. 12, 2024. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella touted successful a connection that "the mathematics is successful our favor, and it's wide House Republicans are connected discourtesy for 2026."

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He besides asserted that "House Democrats are successful shambles — they don't person a wide connection and they're incapable of selling voters connected their failed agenda. We volition enactment tirelessly to clasp the Democrat Party accountable and turn our Republican majority."

Courtney Rice, communications manager for the rival Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, claimed that "voters volition clasp House Republicans accountable for failing to little costs portion fostering a civilization of corruption that benefits their billionaire backers."

"The governmental situation is successful Democrats’ favour heading into 2026 — and with stellar candidates who are focused connected delivering for their districts, House Democrats are poised to instrumentality backmost the bulk successful 2026," Rice predicted.