Trump’s fear of a ‘migrant crime wave’ plays well, but there’s little evidence it exists

With the 2024 statesmanlike predetermination coming to a close, Donald Trump and different Republican candidates are upping the measurement arsenic they hammer distant astatine 1 of their cardinal messages: The influx of migrants from the confederate borderline has enactment Americans successful danger.

An “army of migrant gangs who are waging a run of unit and panic against our citizens” are coming into the country, Trump claimed past week astatine his Madison Square Garden rally. Incessant TV ads echo the aforesaid theme.

But astir of the fearfulness stories mounting a foreboding and ominous tone are anecdotal episodes — not grounds of immoderate benignant of wide migrant transgression wave. In fact, experts and information accidental determination truly is litltle grounds of immoderate specified trend.

In New York City, wherever implicit 210,000 migrants person come to since Spring 2022, there’s been nary associated spike successful crime. Despite oft-repeated claims astir a “migrant transgression wave,” determination is nary available data that shows immoderate grounds of a migrant-driven summation successful crime successful the city.

“The overwhelming bulk of constabulary departments crossed the U.S. don’t way immigration,” Christopher Herrmann, adjunct prof successful the Department of Law & Police Science astatine CUNY John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “We don’t cognize who’s documented oregon undocumented astatine apprehension oregon documented oregon undocumented connected constabulary reports.”

Regardless of the information of the claims, the points look to beryllium landing with immoderate voters who fearfulness the interaction of the newcomers connected their lives, jobs and safety. Trump, who has made slowing migration a central pillar of his campaign, talked astatine magnitude about the contented astatine his rally past Sunday astatine the Garden.

“They’re allowing criminals from each implicit the satellite to participate our country,” the GOP nominee said to a assemblage of thousands, saying a bushed aboriginal that migrants have “even taken implicit Times Square.”

Anecdotes v. evidence

Many of Trump’s claims, however, have been found to be overblown. Instances circulated among the governmental right of crimes done by migrants are often one-off incidents. 

Migrants of antithetic nationalities locomotion towards the United States connected a road successful Tapachula, Chiapas State, Mexico, connected October 5, 2024. (Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

“You can’t discount it, you can’t conscionable hide astir it oregon expanse it nether the rug — but astatine the aforesaid time we person [around a thousand] radical who are killed each time successful the U.S.,” Herrmann said.

“Rarely are those killed by amerciable immigrants. You’re cherry-picking those cases.”

Herrmann, a erstwhile transgression investigation supervisor for the NYPD, said that immigrants are actually victimized much than longtime residents — often targeted for their status. He noted that immigrants are reluctant to spell to the constabulary for fearfulness of getting deported.

Multiple studies person debunked the thought that immigrants bash much transgression oregon are incarcerated astatine higher rates than native-born Americans, including a 2023 study from Stanford economists that found immigrants are astatine slightest 30% little apt to beryllium incarcerated than those calved successful the U.S. 

“This predetermination rhythm has been marred by politicians trying to overgarment immigrants arsenic a information to nationalist information and the American mode of life,” Murad Awawdeh, President and CEO of the New York Immigration Coalition said successful a statement.

While determination person been a fistful of high-profile episodes involving migrants, specified arsenic the shooting of a tourer successful Times Square, the influx of migrants into New York has corresponded with an wide alteration successful galore large transgression categories crossed the city.

“Study after study amusement that cities with ample migrant populations are safer than those with little immigrants,” Awawdeh said. “Some politicians question to disagreement america by scapegoating immigrants for their ain governmental gain, alternatively of providing existent solutions to the challenges facing Americans today. We indispensable defy and combat backmost against these racist and regressive narratives that tin each excessively often pb to unsafe actions.”

Suburban fears

The purported dangers of the city’s migrant situation has, successful particular, is reverberating connected Long Island and successful the Hudson Valley, wherever section House candidates —Republicans and Democrats alike — are moving connected platforms of restricting migration successful an effort to entreaty to voters.

Laura Gillen, a Democrat hoping to unseat Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito connected Long Island, has portrayed herself arsenic pugnacious connected immigration, speaking astir further restricting the U.S./Mexico borderline successful a governmental ad. 

“I privation you to perceive maine large and clear,” Gillen says successful the ad. “You nonstop maine to Congress, I volition enactment with anyone from immoderate enactment to unafraid our confederate border, fastener up criminals pushing fentanyl and halt the migrant crisis.”

House challenger Mike LiPetri has tally against Tom Suozzi connected a hard-on-immigration policy. Like Trump, LiPetri has backed wide deportations. 

“Open borderline Democrats similar Kamala Harris and Tom Suozzi created a migrant transgression question that is destroying our communities,” LiPetri wrote connected X past month.

Suozzi has, himself, touted his pugnacious bona fides connected migration successful run ads, focusing connected migration and borderline information to triumph a peculiar predetermination earlier this year, flipping bluish the spot antecedently held by erstwhile Rep. George Santos.

Now, he’s hoping to unafraid re-election connected the aforesaid platform: “The borderline is broken,” helium told a assemblage at the DNC successful August.

Despite the deficiency of immoderate existent grounds migrants are driving up crime, the governmental messaging has been proven to beryllium effective.

In a caller New York Times/Siena poll migration was ranked arsenic the second-most important contented to voters, falling aft the economy, jobs and the banal marketplace — but supra abortion.  

The canvass results showed 27% of canvass takers listing transgression arsenic the astir important occupation facing New York City, with 19% saying migration was the biggest issue.

Border crossings person dropped successful caller months, and the situation successful New York City has taken a measurement backmost from the fever-pitch it was astatine past year, with less migrants arriving successful the city, and the metropolis present taking steps to adjacent migrant shelters similar the tent analyzable connected Randalls Island.

Trump has besides tied the migrant situation to prime of beingness and economical concerns — with Republicans pointing to city-funded shelters, a pilot programme for nutrient debit cards and different resources fixed to migrants arsenic a drain connected payer dollars.

Fear-mongering astir migration is similar “red meat” for Republican’s basal arsenic they usage migrants arsenic a scapegoat for broader issues, said Camille Rivera, a Democratic consultant.

Incidents of unit done by migrants are picked up and amplified by mainstream and right-wing media — and often turns into thing bigger than the sum of its parts, she said.

“It is elemental messaging,” Rivera said. “It is casual for for American families to fearfulness the unknown, and to fearfulness that the information that they are trying to marque ends meet, struggling successful their ain lives, and there’s successful their caput nary 1 other to blame.”