Trump’s pick of Marco Rubio as secretary of state ignites fears of fiercer US-China rivalry

Donald Trump belittled him arsenic “Little Marco” and “choke artist”, lone to nominate him arsenic his US caput of state. The incoming president even described Marco Rubio as “a beardown advocator for our nation, a existent person to our allies and a fearless warrior who volition ne'er backmost down to our adversaries”.

Rubio’s appointment arsenic arguably the astir almighty diplomat successful the satellite volition apt reshape American overseas argumentation towards allies and rivals alike—and dealing with China’s continued economic, diplomatic and subject emergence is acceptable to beryllium 1 of his apical priorities.

That Trump moved swiftly to unit his overseas argumentation and nationalist information squad with China hawks is an denotation that relations betwixt the 2 superpowers volition deteriorate further. Alongside Rubio arsenic caput of state, the team, though it’s inactive taking shape, already includes Congressman Mike Waltz arsenic nationalist information advisor and John Ratcliffe arsenic caput of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Trump is making “no concealed of his intention” to instrumentality a hard enactment connected China, says Swaran Singh, diplomacy and disarmament adept astatine Jawaharlal Nehru University successful Delhi.

This is evident from his menace to enforce 60 per cent tariffs connected Chinese imports and his determination to prime China hawks for his cabinet, Singh adds.

“Rubio’s assignment to 1 of the astir important positions is significant,” helium tells The Independent. “There is palpable anxiousness successful China due to the fact that they volition not lone person to woody with an unpredictable Trump but a myopically China-focused administration.”

All of Trump’s picks frankincense acold are either focused connected information and subject successful their reasoning oregon are China hawks oregon critics to varying degrees, helium argues.

“The absorption of Trump 2.0 would beryllium connected MAGA, to Make America Great Again, and successful that the wide situation is China,” Singh says.

Rubio, 53, volition beryllium the archetypal sitting US caput of state, erstwhile helium is confirmed by the Senate, to person been sanctioned by Beijing.

Rubio was archetypal elected to the Senate successful 2010 and served connected its Foreign Relations Committee, wherever helium presented himself arsenic a overseas argumentation hawk and an outspoken professional of China, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba successful particular.

He was sanctioned by Beijing on with different US senators successful 2020 for introducing measures against elder Chinese officials implicit their alleged quality rights abuses of taste minorities, peculiarly the Uyghurs, a predominantly Muslim radical successful Xinjiang.

He played a cardinal relation successful introducing legislation, similar the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, aimed astatine preventing goods allegedly made with forced labour successful Xinjiang from entering the US and accused Beijing of a “grotesque run of genocide” against the Uyghurs.

He was sanctioned the 2nd clip for advocating US sanctions against Chinese officials for their effect to the pro-democracy protests successful Hong Kong.

Rubio whitethorn person seemed unbothered astir the mostly symbolic Chinese sanctions that forestall him from travelling to the country, but it remains to beryllium seen if they volition hinder his quality to behaviour diplomacy with Beijing.

He openly and aggressively pitched for a much hostile argumentation towards China and galore of his positions went connected to go much mainstream successful some Republican and Democratic parties.

These included a propulsion for an concern argumentation to alteration the US to get the precocious manus successful contention with China’s state-directed economy.

Rubio has described China arsenic "the largest, astir precocious adversary America has ever faced" and warned against complacency.

He "believes successful his bosom that China is an force of the United States", says David Firestein, a erstwhile US diplomat specialising successful US relations with China. "That’s going to colour everything helium does with respect to China."

But Chintamani Mahapatra, seat of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies, argues that Rubio volition request to temper his positions successful his caller role.

“There are each indications that the Trump medication is going to beryllium tougher connected China connected not conscionable economical issues but adjacent connected governmental and information issues aft the archetypal word saw an economical acold warfare betwixt US and China,” helium tells The Independent.

“While Rubio has supported anti-China authorities successful the past, arsenic caput of authorities helium volition apt instrumentality a hawkish attack to China but yet purpose for compromises that payment America. His absorption volition beryllium connected ‘America first’ and American economical interests.”

Carl-Johan Carlstedt, a geopolitical and information expert astatine the quality steadfast Dragonfly, says Rubio volition beryllium a headache for Xi Jinping’s government owed to his advocacy for US allies similar Taiwan, for quality rights successful China, and for imposing stringent economical measures against Beijing.

“As caput of state, helium volition astir apt beryllium much confrontational to Beijing than the Biden administration,” helium tells The Independent.

“The upcoming medication volition astir apt grow its usage of targeted sanctions and export controls connected China.”

In response, China volition astir surely fortify efforts to predominate the proviso chains of captious technologies and instrumentality steps to “demonstrate its reddish lines connected Taiwan to the Trump administration”, Carlstedt says.

“This includes by expanding its authorities subsidies and concern espionage towards the captious exertion sectors and by mounting ample subject exercises astir Taiwan.”

Rubio and Trump haven’t ever been allies. When contesting the Republican statesmanlike superior successful 2016, they exchanged acerbic attacks.

Rubio berated Trump for the size of his hands, calling him a “con artist” and “vulgar”. Trump responded by calling him “choke artist” and “Little Marco”.

Their narration improved during Trump’s clip successful the White House and Rubio aboriginal downplayed the acrimony, saying: “It was a campaign”.

In a connection connected his information by Trump, the Florida legislator said helium volition “work each day” to enforce the adjacent president’s overseas argumentation agenda. “Under the enactment of President Trump we volition present bid done spot and ever enactment the interests of Americans and America supra each else.”

Singh argues that Trump is “more prepared” and “much clearer” this clip astir what helium wants to bash than helium was successful his archetypal word from 2017 to 2020.

The caller Trump administration, however, besides presents an accidental for China to grow its power and for Xi to look arsenic a much credible leader, helium argues.

“Trump’s ‘America First’ overseas argumentation successful the adjacent 4 years is apt to beryllium seen arsenic not truly advocating multilateralism. And during his past word we saw him walking retired of 5 planetary arrangements, including the Iran woody and the UN Human Rights Council,” helium says.

China volition question to exploit this imaginable vacuum and found its planetary enactment by strengthening ties with nations successful Asia, Africa and Latin America arsenic a counterbalance to America’s much isolationist approach, helium argues.

One of the main sources of vexation for Beijing volition beryllium Rubio’s beardown enactment for Taiwan, which China regards arsenic a breakaway province.

Rubio advocates for strengthening US-Taiwan relations, including pushing for a escaped commercialized woody and promoting unrestricted interactions betwixt US and Taiwanese officials.

It is anticipated that Taiwan volition marque caller arms purchases aft Trump takes office. In his archetypal term, Trump approved much than $18bn successful arms income for Taiwan, compared to $7.7bn nether Joe Biden.

Steve Tsang, manager of the China Institute astatine SOAS, believes that Beijing whitethorn effort to sidestep Rubio and question nonstop engagement betwixt Xi and Trump oregon with different elder US officials.

“If that doesn’t work, past I deliberation we’re going to get into a overmuch much regular escalation of a atrocious relationship,” helium says.