Trump tariffs: Which Canadian industries will be hit hardest?

Canadian manufacture groups reacted sharply connected Tuesday greeting to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that helium plans to enforce a 25-per cent tariff connected imports of each products from Canada.

While the projected tariffs would use crossed the board, they could deed immoderate Canadian sectors and regions harder than others, experts say.

Trump said helium volition motion an enforcement bid imposing a 25-per cent tariff connected each products arriving successful the United States from Canada and Mexico.

The president-elect posted to Truth Social connected Monday evening that the duties volition beryllium among his actions connected his archetypal time backmost successful the White House connected Jan. 20, 2025 — Inauguration Day.

Erik Johnson, elder economist astatine BMO Capital Markets, told Global News the program could deed hard.

“Around 75 per cent of our exports each spell exclusively the United States. We are precise tied to the U.S. erstwhile it comes to that precise meaningful portion of our economy,” helium said.

Johnson said Ontario, the bosom of Canada’s car manufacturing sector, and Alberta, which ships a ample magnitude of lipid and state southbound of the border, could consciousness the pinch.

He said immoderate of the investments that Canada has made successful its car manufacturing industry, peculiarly astir EV production, could dilatory down.

Flavio Volpe, president of Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, said Canadian manufacture was not amazed by the announcement.

“There’s a unusual calm, dissimilar successful 2016 and ’17, erstwhile helium did this the archetypal time,” Volpe said successful an interrogation with Global News.

He added, “There’s a definite magnitude of anxiousness due to the fact that present you can’t trust connected a 20-year committedness successful a commercialized statement similar the archetypal escaped commercialized statement and past the NAFTA. But I deliberation we learned that acquisition successful 2017, ’18 and ’19,” helium said.

Volpe said determination was nary request for the assemblage to panic, but alternatively employment a “prepare and wait” approach.

“We’ve been preparing for the past year, and we surely haven’t wholly gone disconnected the throttle since his archetypal term. We cognize this is coming,” helium said.

Another manufacture preparing for a Trump presidency is the aluminum industry.

According to the Aluminum Association of Canada, the U.S. consumes astir six cardinal tonnes of aluminum a twelvemonth and produces lone 800,000 tons. The remainder is mostly imported from Canada.

Jean Simard, president and main enforcement serviceman of the Aluminum Association of Canada, said, “Many components that extremity up successful their last destination, specified arsenic a car, question backmost and distant 10 to 12 times crossed the border. So if each clip they’re impacted by the aforesaid tariff, it’s going to beryllium precise pugnacious to stay competitive.”

Simard said the manufacture is considering pivoting to different markets if Trump goes up with his tariffs.

“We volition beryllium tempted to vessel to Europe what we usually vessel to the U.S.,” helium said, “They’ll instrumentality everything we tin nonstop there. Especially since Russian metallic has been sanctioned retired of the market.”

Lana Payne, nationalist president of Unifor, warned that these tariffs could origin higher prices successful the United States and occupation losses successful Canada.

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“It could person a disastrous interaction connected jobs successful these sectors unless we’re capable to enactment retired a woody with the United States close present astir Canada being exempt from these tariffs,” she said.

Industry radical Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters said the tariffs are a “lose-lose proposition.”

Dennis Darby, the group’s president and CEO, said successful a statement, “Canada’s exports to the U.S. are chiefly materials and inputs utilized by American businesses to manufacture different products.”

“Imposing tariffs wouldn’t conscionable harm Canada’s economy, it would besides wounded U.S. manufacturers by expanding their costs and disrupting the deeply-integrated proviso chains that marque North American manufacturing globally competitive,” Darby said.

Farmer groups are informing astir adverse effects connected agriculture, with the Grain Growers of Canada (GGC) saying that 70 per cent of Canada’s grains are exported to the United States, amounting to $14 billion.

“The imposition of sweeping tariffs would make instability for farmers who are already facing choky margins owed to rising input costs, changing upwind patterns, and accrued authorities taxation,” the radical said successful a statement.

The Canadian of Chambers urged a beardown effect to the Trump tariff proposal.

“Being America’s ‘nice neighbour’ won’t get america anyplace successful this situation. President-elect Trump’s volition to enforce 25% tariffs signals that the U.S.-Canada commercialized narration is nary longer astir communal benefit. To him, it’s astir winners and losers—with Canada connected the losing end,” Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said successful a statement.

However, it is not yet definite whether a Trump medication volition spell up with the tariffs successful the mode Trump is proposing.

Tu Nyugen, economist astatine RSM said, “What is much apt to hap is that determination volition beryllium commercialized negotiations betwixt the U.S., Canada and Mexico alternatively than broad tariffs. Tariffs connected each goods coming from a state is really precise hard to instrumentality successful reality.”

— with files from Canadian Press