Trump v Harris: Perception, reality and how their records in office compare

Some Americans are already voting for their adjacent president and, if polls are to beryllium believed, the system and migration are astatine the forefront of galore of their minds.

Voters consistently favour Donald Trump implicit Kamala Harris arsenic the champion idiosyncratic to negociate both, but precocious Harris has narrowed the gap.

The system

In a Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) canvass from aboriginal September, Trump held a 15-point pb connected the economy. However, much caller polling has shown a narrower single-digit lead.

For galore people, though, the system comes down to 1 elemental factor: purchasing powerfulness - particularly, what they tin spend successful their day-to-day lives. Essentially, the quality betwixt what they gain and the complaint astatine which prices are increasing, oregon inflation.

Real-terms wages were higher nether Trump, with mean net consistently outpacing inflation.

This was particularly existent during the pandemic, arsenic mean net were boosted by the departure of lower-paid employees from the workforce.

Overall, during his presidency, existent wages accrued by 7%.

Since Joe Biden and Harris person been moving the economy, existent wage maturation hasn't been arsenic strong.

By mid-2022, it had fallen astir 4% beneath wherever it had been astatine the commencement of their term.

Much of this was affected by the post-COVID betterment and outer factors driving inflation.

There are signs that the system is present improving for mean Americans, with existent wage maturation lone 1% little than erstwhile Biden and Harris took office.

But what is important to the candidates' electoral occurrence is whether voters are noticing the difference.

And it's not yet wide that they are.

"Economists are saying 'Unemployment has fallen, the economy's increasing stronger, truthful is wage growth', which is true. But immoderate radical consciousness worse disconnected now," says Shaun Bowler, a prof of governmental subject astatine the University of California Riverside.

Petrol (or 'gas' arsenic it's called successful the US) prices are a bully example.

In America, much than 9 successful 10 households ain astatine slightest 1 vehicle.

During Trump's presidency, petrol prices remained comparatively low, staying nether $3 per gallon and adjacent dipping beneath $2 during the pandemic.

By contrast, nether Biden and Harris, petrol prices roseate to $3.06 per gallon by June 2021, hitting astir $5 a twelvemonth later.

Much of this was driven by factors extracurricular of their control, including the planetary vigor situation pursuing Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

This inclination wasn't unsocial to the US. In the UK, the outgo of unleaded petrol roseate by two-fifths from £1.30 per litre successful June 2021 to £1.84 a twelvemonth later.

"The Trump medication inherited a bully system from (Barack) Obama, 1 with debased unemployment and ostentation and that persisted for a mates of years," says Professor Bowler.

"Then COVID upset everything, followed by the large proviso daze of the warfare successful Ukraine which gives america precocious inflation," helium adds.

While petrol prices person since dropped to $3.39 per gallon successful the US, they stay higher than astatine immoderate constituent during Trump's term.

It's these outgo of surviving issues which person encouraged the Harris run to speech astir what she would bash arsenic president to assistance the mediate class, alternatively than walk excessively agelong trying to support Biden's economical record.

Immigration

One portion of Biden's grounds that Harris can't flight is immigration, not slightest due to the fact that the president tasked her with tackling the basal causes of migration from Central American countries.

Trump has called Harris Biden's "border tsar" and sought to blasted her for problems astatine the US-Mexico border, and migration argumentation overall.

She has been famously criticised by Trump for not visiting the borderline overmuch during the past 4 years.

The vice president made her mode determination past week for a run rally. She was selling a connection of zero tolerance connected amerciable migration and highlighting an betterment successful the data.

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But polls person consistently suggested that voters person small assurance successful her grounds connected the contented and inactive favour Trump arsenic the campaigner to negociate it. Why?

Trump's rhetoric has been much hardline, marked by the committedness of a borderline partition which was ne'er built during his victorious 2016 run for the presidency.

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One of the things Trump did present was Title 42 - a nationalist wellness bid during the pandemic - which enabled authorities to swiftly expel migrants without offering them the accidental to question asylum.

This led to an archetypal driblet successful radical trying to transverse the borderline betwixt the authoritative points of entry, but implementation was challenging.

Some countries were much capable than others to judge radical removed nether Title 42. This meant the argumentation didn't person arsenic overmuch interaction arsenic intended.

Nevertheless, these amerciable crossings were comparatively low, compared to erstwhile they roseate during Harris's archetypal years successful post.

This led to her having a atrocious estimation for handling the border.

But successful caller months, there's been a abrupt and important autumn successful radical crossing betwixt points of entry, astir apt driven by a argumentation change.

In June, Biden and Harris introduced a arguable asylum prohibition allowing the deportation oregon turning backmost of migrants if amerciable crossings transcend 2,500 per time for a week.

In the archetypal period alone, amerciable crossings dropped from 83,536 to 56,399.

However, it's hard to foretell whether this volition continue.

"After immoderate benignant of large argumentation change, we often spot a driblet successful migrant encounters. It becomes this wait-and-see play and antecedently we've seen numbers spell backmost up," says Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, subordinate argumentation expert astatine the Migration Policy Institute.

In contrast, the fig of undocumented migrants attempting to participate the US done authoritative crossing points remains high.

This displacement is mostly owed to the expanded usage of an app called CBP One which successful May 2023 became the lone mode migrants could docket appointments for asylum claims astatine the border.

As with the economy, though, Harris has been narrowing the spread successful the polls connected migration since taking implicit astatine the apical of the Democratic summons from Biden.

But this is inactive an contented Trump leads connected with astir voters.

Abortion rights

While Harris is making immoderate advancement successful improving her lasting versus Trump connected the cardinal issues of the system and immigration, she's besides trying to rise the illustration of termination arsenic an predetermination ballot winner.

Abortion is 1 of the astir divisive issues successful the US and Harris has made it a cornerstone of her campaign.

She has polled good connected the issue, with a beardown 19-point pb successful a caller survey from KFF, and there's grounds she is mobilising enactment among women.

"It's been a winning contented for Democrats since the overturn of Roe, it is going to beryllium playing retired successful assorted states connected the ballot successful November, and the Republicans fundamentally don't person a coherent line," says Dr Richard Johnson, elder lecturer successful US authorities and argumentation astatine Queen Mary, University of London.

Trump's assignment of judges that secured the blimpish bulk successful the Supreme Court during his presidency helped successful overturning Roe v Wade successful 2022, allowing states to determine their ain termination laws.

Since then, respective states person efficaciously banned astir abortions, forcing women to question crossed authorities lines for care.

From 2019 to 2023, the fig of women who sought an termination successful a antithetic authorities grew by 133% from much than 73,000 to implicit 170,000.

This November changes to termination laws are connected the ballot successful 10 states and astatine slightest 2 of these, Arizona and Nevada, are cardinal battleground contests.

As the contention nears its last stretch, Trump's estimation for handling cardinal issues similar the system and migration remains beardown successful the polls, but Harris has worked hard to adjacent those gaps, portion besides boosting the illustration of termination arsenic a pivotal issue.

The question present is whether voters volition spot Trump's mentation of his past show oregon beryllium swayed by Harris's imaginativeness for the future.

The Data and Forensics squad is simply a multi-skilled portion dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise information to archer data-driven stories. We harvester accepted reporting skills with precocious investigation of outer images, societal media and different unfastened root information. Through multimedia storytelling we purpose to amended explicate the satellite portion besides showing however our journalism is done.