Ukraine gets green light to use US long-range missiles: What’s next?

United States President Joe Biden has reportedly lifted restrictions connected Kyiv connected the usage of long-range missiles, which means Ukrainian forces whitethorn occurrence American-made missiles wrong Russian territory for the archetypal time.

The move, which comes weeks earlier Biden leaves bureau and hours aft monolithic Russian rocket and drone attacks, has angered the Kremlin, which accused Washington of “throwing lipid connected the fire”.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the determination would mean Washington’s nonstop engagement successful the conflict, echoing a akin sentiment expressed by President Vladimir Putin successful September.

The White House and President-elect Donald Trump person not commented yet, but Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, said: “The subject concern analyzable seems to privation to marque definite they get World War III going earlier my begetter has a accidental to make bid and prevention lives.”

The elder Trump, who takes bureau connected January 20, repeatedly pledged during his run to negociate an extremity to the Ukraine war.

So however important is the latest determination by the Biden administration, and volition this pb to an escalation of the Ukraine war?

Why did the US let Ukraine to usage long-range missiles successful Russia?

The US determination was made aft the deployment of North Korean troops successful Russia’s Kursk region, which was invaded by Ukrainian forces successful August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pressing his Western allies, including the US and United Kingdom, for months to let missiles to beryllium utilized against Russia arsenic Moscow’s forces person been making dilatory but dependable gains successful eastbound Ukraine.

Al Jazeera’s diplomatic analogous James Bays said the “aim of these Western nations is to enactment Ukraine, peculiarly successful the country of Russia that Ukraine has occupied, Kursk”.

As galore arsenic 12,000 North Korean soldiers person been sent to Russia, according to the US, Ukraine and South Korea officials. They person besides accused Pyongyang of supplying weapons to Moscow.

While the US secretly sent the missiles to Ukraine successful March, Ukraine had not been allowed to usage them to onslaught wrong Russian territory. As of precocious April, Ukraine had utilized these missiles doubly successful Russia-annexed Crimea.

Biden made the determination with lone 9 weeks near successful his presidency. His successor has promised helium volition negociate a swift extremity to the war, which has raised uncertainty astir whether the US, Ukraine’s biggest arms provider, volition proceed to nonstop it subject support.

There were recent indications that the US would let Ukraine to usage the missiles. In September, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, visited Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy. When thanking the officials for visiting him, Zelenskyy posted connected his X account: “It is important that Ukrainian arguments are heard. This includes the long-range weapons.”

A time earlier the visit, Blinken told reporters successful London that helium and Lammy would beryllium “listening precise intently” connected the substance and reporting back. On the aforesaid day, Biden told reporters: “We’re moving that retired close now.”

What are these long-range missiles?

The missiles supplied by the US to Ukraine are called the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). They person a scope of 300km (190 miles) and were archetypal developed successful the 1980s.

The ATACMS, built by US defence shaper Lockheed Martin, tin beryllium launched utilizing HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine by the US astir July 2022. The missiles tin besides beryllium launched by the US-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System, sent to Ukraine by the UK successful 2022.

Before sending the longer scope ATACMS, the US had sent Ukraine a shorter scope mentation susceptible of firing arsenic acold arsenic 165km (100 miles) successful October 2023.

Why are the long-range missiles important for Ukraine?

Ukraine tin usage the long-range tactical missiles to onslaught concentrations of Russian and North Korean troops successful Kursk, which sits connected Ukraine’s border, arsenic good arsenic subject instrumentality wrong Russian territory.

Kyiv is astir apt to onslaught Russia astir the Kursk region, US officials said, according to The New York Times.

Ukrainian soldiers seized 28 settlements spanning astir 1,000sq km (386sq miles) successful Kursk during an incursion launched successful August. North Korean soldiers are reportedly concentrated adjacent Kursk.

“Ukraine needs to beryllium capable to deed Russian proviso chains which it has moved backmost beyond existent Ukrainian rocket range,” Timothy Ash, an subordinate chap successful the Russia and Eurasia programme astatine Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

Ash speculated that the determination to springiness Kyiv long-range capabilities could besides beryllium “aimed astatine giving Ukraine much leverage successful aboriginal negotiations”.

“Once the capableness has been given, it is harder to instrumentality away,” helium said. “[Putin] volition privation to negociate limits connected Ukraine’s subject capabilities.”

Ash added that renewed unit successful Kursk is likely. On November 11, Zelenskyy said successful a Telegram station that Ukrainian soldiers were warring against astir “50,000 force troops” successful Kursk. This came a time aft The New York Times reported that Moscow had assembled 50,000 soldiers, including North Koreans in Kursk.

How person Ukraine and Russia reacted?

Zelenskyy said successful an evening code connected Sunday: “Today, galore successful the media are saying that we person received support to instrumentality due actions.”

He added: “Strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles volition talk for themselves.”

Moscow said the rocket determination would pb to a emergence successful tensions.

“If specified a determination was so formulated and brought to the Kyiv regime, past this is simply a qualitatively caller circular of hostility and a qualitatively caller concern from the constituent of presumption of US engagement successful this conflict,” Peskov said.

“It is evident that the outgoing medication successful Washington intends to instrumentality steps to proceed adding substance to the occurrence and proceed to provoke hostility astir this conflict,” helium said.

Russian lawmaker Maria Butina told the Reuters quality bureau that it would hazard the commencement of a satellite conflict. “I person a large anticipation that Trump volition flooded this determination if this has been made due to the fact that they are earnestly risking the commencement of World War III, which is not successful anybody’s interest.”

Putin had warned the West 2 months agone against allowing the usage of long-range missiles successful Russian territory.

“If this is so, then, bearing successful caput the alteration successful the precise essence of this conflict, we volition marque due decisions based connected the threats that volition beryllium created for us,” Putin told Russian authorities tv astatine the time.

What’s next?

Ash said Kyiv needs to usage the long-range missiles to dent Russian violative capabilities.

“It looks similar Russia volition escalate implicit the adjacent mates of months earlier the Trump presidency and apt negotiations. So Ukraine needs to beryllium capable to deed longer scope to dent Russia’s violative capabilities,” helium said.

Putin congratulated Trump connected his victory, lauding the US president-elect arsenic “courageous”, adding helium is acceptable to person talks with Trump. Despite this, Russia has continued its attacks connected Ukraine.

“Russia has been escalating anyhow implicit caller weeks, seemingly ignoring Trump’s petition to Putin not to escalate,” Ash added.

The Kremlin, however, denied reports that said Trump had spoken with Putin and urged the Russian person to not escalate the warfare successful Ukraine.

On Monday, Russia carried retired its largest rocket and drone strikes connected Ukraine successful months, targeting vigor infrastructure. At slightest 11 radical were killed successful the attack, according to Ukrainian authorities.

The UK and France, which person besides provided long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, could perchance let Kyiv to onslaught wrong Russian territory. Storm Shadow missiles, besides called SCALP, tin deed targets up to 250km (155 miles) away.

French paper Le Monde, quoting the country’s overseas minister, reported that Paris is unfastened to allowing Ukraine to usage its long-range missiles to onslaught wrong Russian territory.