US Election 2024: how Donald Trump's win will impact the London property market

The phones of London's high-end property agents person been ringing overnight. Enquiries from anti-Trump Americans to rent trophy homes connected London's astir prestigious streets started to travel successful during the aboriginal hours of Wednesday greeting arsenic a Donald Trump triumph seemed inevitable. 

"My squad person been up astir of the nighttime fielding enquiries from galore of the US cities that we enactment with, including New York and Los Angeles," says Becky Fatemi of Sotheby's International Realty. "The astir contiguous requests are for rentals. They privation wide-fronted townhouses successful Notting Hill oregon ample lateral apartments successful buildings with a porter, specified arsenic the Peninsula. We expect to spot this request continue," she adds. 

James Gow, caput of London residential income for Strutt & Parker, believes this enactment volition bleed implicit into the income assemblage excessively successful what is known arsenic Prime Central London (PCL), and boost this micro-market – which is tiny successful footprint but ample successful worth for the UK economy.

"Trump is specified a polarising fig that determination volition beryllium immoderate affluent Americans who volition conscionable think, 'I bash not hold with his rhetoric and I conscionable cannot beryllium a portion of it,'" Gow says.

Sentiment is the main operator successful the PCL marketplace arsenic these buyers are truthful affluent they are seldom forced to move, Gow continues. Due to constraints connected caller developments and galore buildings utilized for different purposes – specified arsenic embassies – determination is historically a deficiency of proviso of homes successful the astir prestigious pockets of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. "Therefore, an influx of Americans buying up homes with make a plaything successful sentiment and momentum and could determination prices up too. A Trump triumph could beryllium bully for the London market" helium says. 

London homes astatine the apical end

Above £10m: 1.6 per cent driblet

£5m-£10m: 1.1 per cent drop

£3m-£5m: 0.4 per cent drop

£2m-£3m: 0.9 per cent drop

Below £2m: 1.6 per cent drop

Source: Savills

North American buyers person been preparing their spot portfolios and determination successful the pb up to the US election this November. Even erstwhile different planetary buyers dropped disconnected implicit the people of 2024 owed to uncertainty astir the UK alteration successful authorities and taxation levels, US buyers person inactive been spot buying successful London. 

US buyers were the apical non-UK visitors to the Savills website this August and implicit the past twelvemonth person accounted for 14 per cent of deals. 

Buying cause Liam Monaghan of LCP Private Office has seen an "uptick" successful American buyers successful 2024 with astir a 3rd of buyers coming from North America. "The US predetermination is simply a polarising lawsuit and truthful has driven immoderate US clients to deliberation astir their worldwide holdings carefully. It is sensible to person a foothold successful some camps arsenic they show the governmental scenery and fiscal markets," helium says. 

They are buying for play properties with charm and accepted features but are modernised wrong with state-of-the-art fixtures – oregon arsenic Fatemi calls it "turnkey" aka acceptable to determination consecutive into. 

"We precocious afloat refurnished a apical level level successful Notting Hill for an American purchaser who loved the quality of the gathering but wanted a implicit interior renovation to modernise throughout. They besides favour caller physique schemes with each amenities onsite – of precocious US buyers person bought successful the Old War Offices successful Westminster and Regents Crescent with views implicit Regents Park," Monaghan adds.

Historically, wealthiness generated successful American stayed successful America, explains Savills' Rory. Now determination is simply a caller much mobile procreation of wealth. Younger individuals and families who person made wealth done tech, crypto, task superior and backstage equity. With much distant moving and a alteration successful cognition aft covid this procreation is much mobile. "London has seen this migration of young US wealthiness implicit the past fewer years," helium explains. "It is simply a inclination that is acceptable to continue.”

"They often rent archetypal bargain later, known arsenic 'try earlier you buy'. Rental banal successful the centre of London is truthful constrained that immoderate influx is acceptable to summation rents erstwhile again. "I person seen a important summation successful enquiries for some short- and semipermanent rents successful the tally up to the US election, peculiarly from families successful New York. We saw and influx successful 2016 erstwhile Trump won – we are expecting to this this again," says Olivia McSweeney of Sotheby's International Realty. 

Prime cardinal London rents are up 33.9 per cent connected 2017-2019 (pre pandemic)

Rents person accrued by 2.2 per cent implicit the past 12 months

Source: LonRes (October)

Some volition spot the Trump triumph arsenic unsettling backmost location and it volition motivate them to move. But determination are galore different factors pushing US buyers into London and the UK's state location market, according to buying cause Camilla Dell of Black Brick. 

She cites the beardown dollar against the pound, falling prices successful PCL, the British precocious prime acquisition strategy and the cognition of information arsenic factors which proceed to entreaty to US precocious networth individual. 

"We interest astir transgression present but it is not comparable to weapon transgression successful the US. We are sending children into schoolhouse done the schoolhouse gross and not done metallic detectors. After covid determination is besides a immense homelessness situation successful cities specified arsenic New York and cause taking connected the streets is rife," she says. 

For Gow, the harmless haven presumption of London remains its large selling constituent astatine a clip erstwhile the Trump triumph volition breed further unrest successful the US. And, portion struggle is raging successful the Middle East and Ukraine determination is renewed certainty successful the UK.

"2024 has been similar driving down the motorway successful the fog, you thrust dilatory peering done the windscreen. But the UK and the US predetermination are down present – we person certainty and visibility which should construe into a engaged marketplace successful the New Year," helium concludes.