The 2024 US predetermination could beryllium to beryllium among the astir consequential successful American history.
And it could not beryllium closer, oregon much hard to foretell the outcome.
If Donald Trump wins, he'll beryllium older, angrier and surrounded by less superior radical than helium was successful his archetypal term.
There'll beryllium cipher astir to chill his temper.
And erstwhile members of his elder unit person issued stark warnings that the erstwhile President speaks and behaves similar a fascist, and would apt proceed to bash truthful successful office.
If helium loses, helium volition astir apt effort and overturn the result, conscionable arsenic helium did connected January 6 2021.
He has employed an service of aggravated activists whose superior relation is to "stop the steal" - uncovering immoderate crushed to question, undermine oregon overrule votes and results that don't spell Trump's way.
After an archetypal canvass boost aft taking implicit from Joe Biden arsenic nominee, Kamala Harris' numbers person settled down. It's a genuine 50/50 toss-up, and volition astir apt either beryllium decided by turnout oregon successful the courts.
But erstwhile volition we find retired the effect of the US election? Here's what we cognize truthful far.
Will we cognize the US predetermination effect connected predetermination night?
Almost surely not. The US predetermination isn't tally similar the UK - there's nary tremendous nationwide exit poll, and the sheer size of the electorate means counting and verifying votes volition instrumentality immoderate clip - adjacent with physics machines and aboriginal voting.
When volition we cognize the effect of the US election?
We'll get results authorities by authorities - and places wherever determination has been a wide victor volition beryllium declared rather quickly.
However the cardinal plaything states wherever the polls are person volition instrumentality overmuch longer. In particular, the knife-edge authorities Pennsylvania is apt to instrumentality days - if not weeks - to certify its result.
When we cognize who the adjacent US President is volition travel down to however adjacent it was.
In 2020 it came down to a fewer plaything states, but the extremity effect wasn't that adjacent - and it inactive took respective days to telephone the winner.
What happens aft the predetermination effect is confirmed?
The victor becomes President Elect, but doesn't instrumentality bureau until January.
The winning campaigner volition springiness a code extracurricular the US Capital gathering connected January 20th, erstwhile they volition instrumentality the oath of bureau and go President.
But it was those 76 days that proved peculiarly unsafe successful 2020-21 - with Trump refusing to concede, and yet holding his "stop the steal" rally extracurricular the White House connected January 6th.