US election: Who do world leaders prefer for president – Harris or Trump?

As the United States presidential election approaches connected November 5, polls amusement Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican erstwhile President Donald Trump locked successful a tight, too-close-to-call race.

But portion the US predetermination is astir who the American radical was to spot starring them, the country’s outsized power means the contention is being watched intimately successful capitals astir the world.

So who would assorted satellite leaders privation to spot successful the White House?

Vladimir Putin, Russia

While the Russian person has suggested — possibly successful jest — that helium mightiness similar Harris arsenic president, galore signs constituent towards Putin really favouring a Trump win.

“Putin would emotion Trump arsenic president for assorted reasons,” Timothy Ash, an subordinate chap successful the Russia and Eurasia Programme astatine Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

“First, Putin thinks Trump is brushed connected Russia and volition rotation implicit to springiness him a large woody connected Ukraine – cutting subject enactment to Ukraine and lifting sanctions connected Russia,” helium said.

“I deliberation Putin looks astatine Trump and sees a reflector representation of himself, an authoritarian, sociopath. He apt thinks helium understands Trump,” Ash added.

Furthermore, Putin “hates” the strategy of Western wide marketplace democracy, and the Russian person “thinks Trump volition proceed wherever helium near disconnected successful Trump 1.0 successful sowing disunity and chaos”, undermining institutions similar NATO and the European Union.

However, Russian analysts accidental careless of who wins, Moscow officials judge the US aversion towards Russia volition remain, the Anadolu quality bureau reported.

Putin had antecedently been outspoken astir his thoughts connected US statesmanlike authorities and has made endorsements for candidates clip and clip again since 2004.

Before the 2016 election, Putin talked Trump up to reporters during an yearly quality conference. “He is simply a agleam and talented idiosyncratic without immoderate doubt,” helium said.

In July 2016, the US intelligence assemblage accused Putin of predetermination interference with the purpose of helping Trump decision Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. In 2020, a bipartisan US Senate report found that Russia had meddled successful the 2016 election. US quality besides alleged that Russia meddled successful the 2020 election.

On July 9 this year, a US quality authoritative – without naming Trump – indicated to reporters that Russia favoured Trump successful the 2024 race.

“We person not observed a displacement successful Russia’s preferences for the statesmanlike contention from past elections, fixed the relation the US is playing with respect to Ukraine and broader argumentation toward Russia,” the authoritative from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said.

In September, Putin made a tongue-in-cheek reference to Harris, describing her arsenic having an “expressive and infectious laugh” which, helium said, indicates “she’s doing well” and possibly would not enforce sanctions connected Russia.

“I don’t cognize if I’m insulted oregon helium did maine a favour,” Trump responded astatine a run rally connected the aforesaid time arsenic Putin made the wry remarks.

In October, seasoned newsman Bob Woodward alleged successful his caller publication that Trump had made astatine slightest seven telephone calls to Putin since helium near the presidency successful January 2021. These allegations were rejected by Trump’s run and by Trump himself. “He’s a storyteller. A atrocious one. And he’s mislaid his marbles,” Trump said astir Woodward to ABC news.

Later successful October, during the closing of the BRICS summit, Putin said Trump “spoke astir his tendency to bash everything to extremity the struggle successful Ukraine. I deliberation helium is being sincere.”

Trump has been captious of the assistance that the US sends to Ukraine against Russia’s warfare and says helium volition promptly extremity the warfare if elected.

US President Donald Trump, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shingle hands astatine the opening of a gathering astatine the Presidential Palace successful Helsinki, Finland, connected July 16, 2018 [File: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/File]

Xi Jinping, China

Xi Jinping has not publically made an endorsement.

As with Russia, some Democrats and Republicans person taken a pugnacious stance towards China. During his presidency, Trump started a trade war with China, imposing tariffs connected $250bn of Chinese imports successful 2018. China deed back, placing tariffs connected $110bn of US imports.

It does not look similar helium volition backmost down from that if elected, but Democrats could besides rally against China’s increasing power worldwide.

When Biden became president, helium kept Trump’s tariffs successful place. Furthermore, connected September 13 this year, the Biden medication announced increases successful tariffs connected definite Chinese-made products. If Harris wins, she is expected to enactment accordant with Biden’s argumentation towards China.

Neither Trump nor Harris person gone into item astir what their people of enactment would beryllium towards China if they are elected.

Despite Trump’s commercialized war, helium has boasted of his bully narration with Xi. After Trump survived an assassination attempt connected July 14, helium said satellite leaders had reached retired to him. “I got on precise good with President Xi. He’s a large guy, wrote maine a beauteous enactment the different time erstwhile helium heard astir what happened,” Trump told a rally.

However, down the scenes, Chinese officials whitethorn beryllium somewhat leaning towards Harris, NBC quality quoted Jia Qingguo, the erstwhile dean of the School of International Studies astatine Peking University, arsenic saying.

“The irony is, Xi astir apt wants Harris, arsenic does Iran,” Ash told Al Jazeera portion talking astir Putin.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publically endorsed either candidate. However, it is wide believed that helium leans towards a Trump win.

Netanyahu and Trump had a bully narration during the erstwhile US president’s archetypal term. In 2019, astatine the Israeli-American Council, Trump said: “The Jewish authorities has ne'er had a amended person successful the White House than your president.”

The feelings were mutual. Netanyahu, successful a 2020 statement, said that Trump was “the top person that Israel has ever had successful the White House”.

Relations betwixt Trump and Netanyahu soured aft Biden was elected. When Biden was sworn in, Netanyahu congratulated him. Trump said helium felt betrayed by this, successful an interview.

However, the Israeli PM has made attempts to rekindle the aged bond. During a US sojourn successful July this year, Netanyahu visited Trump astatine his Mar-a-Lago residence successful Florida. Axios reported that an state of Netanyahu adjacent travelled to Mar-a-Lago earlier the existent gathering of the 2 leaders, to work passages from Netanyahu’s book, praising Trump.

The Israeli PM besides posted a video connected societal media expressing daze astir the assassination effort connected Trump astatine a rally successful Pennsylvania successful July, which was reposted by Trump connected his societal media platform, Truth Social.

At the aforesaid time, the Biden medication has shown unwavering diplomatic and subject assistance to Netanyahu’s authorities amid Israel’s warfare connected Gaza, wherever the decease toll of Palestinians stands astatine 43,061 according to UN humanitarian bureau OCHA arsenic of October 29.

Since the commencement of Israel’s warfare connected Gaza connected October 7 past twelvemonth – pursuing a Hamas-led onslaught connected villages and service outposts successful confederate Israel – Biden’s authorities has sent billions of dollars successful subject assistance to Israel.

Last October 4, Biden told a quality league that helium does not cognize whether Netanyahu is purposefully holding up a ceasefire woody successful Gaza, contempt reports and speculation that the Israeli PM mightiness person been holding up an statement connected purpose, perchance to power the US predetermination result.

“No medication has helped Israel much than I have. None. None. None. And I deliberation Bibi should retrieve that,” Biden said during the quality conference, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.

Former US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arsenic they airs for a photograph astatine their gathering astatine Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, successful Palm Beach, Florida, United States, connected July 26, 2024 [Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO) / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images]

European and NATO leaders

A bulk of European leaders similar Harris arsenic the US president.

“I cognize her well, she would surely beryllium a bully president,” Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany told reporters.

Trump has threatened to permission NATO respective times. However, Politico reported that his nationalist information advisers and defence experts accidental it is improbable helium volition exit the alliance.

Regardless, his complaints astir NATO remain. It is expected that helium would privation NATO allies to summation their defence spending targets.

In February, Trump stirred the cookware with allies successful Europe by suggesting helium would archer Russia to onslaught NATO allies whom helium considered “delinquent”.

Additionally, Trump’s triumph could mean little alignment with European countries connected collaboration for renewable vigor initiatives.

This is due to the fact that Trump has campaigned for much fossil substance accumulation to alteration the US to trim reliance connected overseas vigor imports. “We volition drill, baby, drill,” helium told the Republican nationalist convention portion accepting the party’s information successful July.

On the different hand, Harris is apt to proceed with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and cleanable vigor modulation plans, creating opportunities to collaborate with Europe. However, Harris has besides been accused of making a U-turn connected sustainability promises specified arsenic fracking.

During her 2019 tally for the statesmanlike primaries, Harris had promised to prohibition fracking, a method of extracting lipid and state by drilling into the world – which biology campaigners accidental is peculiarly damaging arsenic it consumes ample amounts of h2o and releases greenhouse state methane. Trump had criticised her for this promise.

During the presidential debate betwixt Harris and Trump successful Pennsylvania successful September, however, Harris said: “I volition not prohibition fracking, I person not banned fracking arsenic vice president.”

Narendra Modi, India

While India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a close relationship with Trump during the latter’s presidency, Modi was besides 1 of the archetypal satellite leaders to congratulate Biden connected his 2020 predetermination victory.

Congratulations @JoeBiden connected your spectacular victory! As the VP, your publication to strengthening Indo-US relations was captious and invaluable. I look guardant to moving intimately unneurotic erstwhile again to instrumentality India-US relations to greater heights. pic.twitter.com/yAOCEcs9bN

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) November 7, 2020

“I don’t judge that Modi has a beardown penchant for 1 campaigner implicit another,” Chietigj Bajpaee, elder probe chap for South Asia, Asia-Pacific Programme astatine the UK-based deliberation vessel Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

“There is simply a precocious grade of bipartisan statement successful Washington connected deepening relations with India and viewing it arsenic a semipermanent strategical spouse – arguably arsenic overmuch statement arsenic determination is connected viewing China arsenic a semipermanent strategical rival,” Bajpaee wrote successful an nonfiction for Chatham House.

He wrote that the 3 cardinal pillars of US engagement with India are that India is the world’s largest democracy, that the US sees India arsenic a bulwark against China and India’s perchance increasing economy.

Michael Kugelman, manager of the Washington, DC-based Wilson Center deliberation tank’s South Asia Institute told Al Jazeera that the Indian authorities volition measurement the pros and cons for some candidates.

When it comes to Trump, “there whitethorn beryllium a consciousness successful New Delhi that that would beryllium a bully happening for India due to the fact that determination whitethorn beryllium a cognition that Trump would not marque a fuss astir interior matters successful India, including quality rights issues,” Kugelman said, adding that contempt this, the authorities of India would beryllium acrophobic astir Trump’s “unpredictable” governing style.

“While Donald Trump is much acquainted to Modi from his archetypal word successful office, a Kamala Harris presidency offers a grade of continuity from the existent Biden administration,” Bajpaee told Al Jazeera.

Under Biden, ties betwixt the US and India deepened successful presumption of defence, exertion and economy. Biden made India a Major Defence Partner, contempt India not being a ceremonial subject state and its reliance connected Russia for subject assistance.

In May 2022, connected the sidelines of the Quad acme successful Tokyo, India and the US announced an Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), to heighten practice successful AI, quantum computing and different technological advances.

Before Modi’s sojourn to India successful September this year, Trump called Modi “fantastic” but, astatine the aforesaid time, called India an “abuser of import tariffs”.

South Korea

South Korea is simply a cardinal state of the US successful the Indo-Pacific. While the country’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has not explicitly endorsed a candidate, the narration betwixt South Korea and the US has flourished nether Biden.

Commentary published successful September by US deliberation vessel Brookings said that during the Trump administration, “South Koreans were dismayed by charges they were not contributing capable to their defence and to the upkeep of US forces, contempt providing the bulk of front-line combat forces against North Korea.”

On the different hand, “the Biden medication has done small to code the North Korean atomic threat. It has, however, focused connected strengthening bilateral and trilateral ties betwixt Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul,” Edward Howell, a lecturer successful planetary relations astatine the University of Oxford, told Al Jazeera.

Howell said this was made evident astatine the Camp David Summit of 2023, arsenic good arsenic successful presidential-level meetings betwixt Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol.

Howell added that South Korea volition privation to marque definite that US enactment for it does not wither nether the adjacent president “at a clip erstwhile the East Asian portion faces not conscionable the menace of a atomic North Korea, but an progressively coercive and belligerent China”.

Japan

For US state Japan, a Trump triumph whitethorn mean helium volition displacement absorption to home argumentation and trim collaboration with Japan, summation tariffs, arsenic good arsenic expect Japan to summation subject spending, investigation published by Japanese website Nippon Communications Foundation says.

However, Japanese authorities officials person formed relationships with officials from the past Trump administration, including Bill Hagerty, who is simply a erstwhile ambassador to Tokyo and is seen arsenic a favourite for caput of state, the investigation by Kotani Tetsuo says.

On the different hand, portion a Harris medication would mean much accordant argumentation with the Biden administration, caller relationships would person to beryllium formed with the officials connected Harris’s team.

Australia

For US state Australia, “a Trump triumph would rise galore questions,” Ben Doherty, a newsman from Australia wrote for The Guardian.

Doherty added that galore successful Australia judge Trump is apt to retreat from the Paris Agreement if helium is re-elected, which could weaken the power of the informal clime coalition, the Umbrella Group, which Australia is simply a portion of.

Australia besides shares a commercialized narration with China and a Trump triumph could mean commercialized warfare with China, which could beryllium detrimental to Australia’s economy.