What does Trump's election victory mean for NATO, Europe?

LONDON — 

America's allies successful Europe are debating what Donald Trump's triumph successful Tuesday's U.S. statesmanlike predetermination could mean for their information and prosperity amid concerns that the adjacent 4 years whitethorn erstwhile again beryllium characterized by a turbulent transatlantic alliance.

European interests

About 50 European leaders met successful Budapest connected Thursday for a acme of the European Political Community, which was acceptable up successful 2022 successful the aftermath of Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe indispensable basal up for itself arsenic it prepares for the adjacent Trump presidency successful the United States.

"There is simply a geopolitical concern wherever it is wide that we person 2 blocs: the United States of America connected 1 broadside and China connected the other, which supra each question their ain interests," Macron told the different European leaders.

"I deliberation that our relation present successful the European Union is not to remark connected the predetermination of Donald Trump, to wonderment if it is bully oregon not. He was elected by the American people, and helium is going to support the interests of American radical and that is morganatic and that is simply a bully thing,” helium said.

"The question is, are we acceptable to support the interests of Europeans? That is the lone question that we should inquire ourselves. And for me, I deliberation that is our priority," helium said.

NATO

The NATO confederation remains the bedrock of Europe's security.

"The archetypal accusation for the confederation is however to proceed enactment for Ukraine if there's an expected drawdown of subject assistance from the U.S.," said Ed Arnold, elder probe chap for European information astatine Britain's Royal United Services Institute.

"That tin either beryllium delivered done NATO — and determination were immoderate steps taken successful this summertime to benignant of formalize those structures — but inactive importantly little than wherever it needs to be. It tin besides beryllium done done the EU arsenic well, which mightiness summation somewhat but astir apt not enough. Or it tin beryllium done bilaterally," Arnold told VOA.

"I deliberation really the mechanisms are astir apt mostly irrelevant. It's much astir the outgo to idiosyncratic nations, and that's going to person to ramp up beauteous rapidly if they're going to beryllium capable to person that impact," helium said.

Shortfall

Does Europe person the capableness to marque up immoderate shortfall from a U.S. withdrawal of enactment for Kyiv?

"Yes, but it would instrumentality a batch much effort than Europe is making now," according to expert Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform. "And I deliberation determination volition beryllium some, possibly successful Germany, possibly elsewhere, who volition accidental the Ukrainians are conscionable going to person to enactment up with losing immoderate of their territory.

"I deliberation for the Baltic states, for the Nordic states, Poland — they volition look astatine this and they volition say, 'Russia is going to beryllium an existential menace to america if it is allowed to power Ukraine. And truthful we indispensable measurement up our efforts,'" Bond said.

On the run trail, Trump said helium would extremity the Russia-Ukraine warfare connected time one, though helium didn't elaborate connected however that would beryllium achieved. In the past helium has boasted of a bully narration with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peace deal?

Ukraine fears being forced into an unfavorable bid woody — and Europeans mightiness alteration their calculations, said expert Arnold of RUSI.

"There mightiness beryllium a spot of a interest wherever there's immoderate wrong Europe who say, "Why would we ramp up assistance present if there's going to beryllium a negotiated colony reasonably soon? And I deliberation the existent hazard for Europe arsenic a full — the EU but besides NATO — is that really the U.S. and Russia mightiness commencement to bash these negotiations without them," Arnold said.

Leverage

There are deeper concerns that the U.S. mightiness retreat wider enactment for European security. Former authorities officials accidental Trump considered pulling the U.S. retired of NATO altogether successful his archetypal term.

"One of the precise fewer accordant beliefs that Trump has held to since helium entered authorities has been the thought that the United States is being taken vantage of by its allies," said Jonathan Monten, a U.S. overseas argumentation expert astatine University College London.

"At times, Trump threatened to retreat from the confederation altogether but was yet held back. So the million-dollar question … is whether oregon not helium volition really enactment connected that threat," Monten told VOA.

"I deliberation helium likes the thought that he's keeping overseas allies arsenic good arsenic adversaries guessing arsenic to his eventual intentions. I deliberation helium sees that arsenic a root of leverage, arsenic a root of power," helium said.

NATO's caput general, Mark Rutte, who took implicit the relation October 1, has struck a much upbeat tone, praising Trump for getting allies to walk much connected defense.

"When helium was president, helium was the 1 successful NATO who stimulated america to determination implicit the 2% [of GDP spending target]," Rutte told reporters successful Budapest connected Thursday.

Tariffs

It's not lone information fears that are haunting European capitals. America's allies could besides look economical turbulence erstwhile Trump enters the White House.

"The [Trump] claims of putting astir 60% oregon much tariffs connected each imports from China volition person to person a large disruptive interaction connected satellite trade, and determination volition beryllium repercussions connected the EU, connected Europe, connected the U.K. and elsewhere. We tin expect besides tariffs connected imports from the EU arsenic well," said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center astatine American University successful Washington.

"One constituent that I deliberation is going to beryllium perfectly captious for Europe, for the EU, is to enactment connected protecting its unity and its unanimity. Trump, I think, is apt to effort to follow a disagreement and regularisation approach," Martin said.

Unpredictability

Trump's unpredictability means determination is small Europe’s leaders tin bash to prepare, said Monten.

"They tin effort flattery,” helium said. “They tin effort to connection him deals that payment him personally, but it's unclear what precisely they would person to offer. They tin connection him the benignant of stature oregon respect that comes on with a large expansive acme oregon commercialized deal. He seems to crave that benignant of respect.

"But erstwhile it comes to existent tangible factual results, it is unclear what levers they person either to endanger him with oregon to cajole him with," Monten told VOA.