Where Russia, Ukraine and Trump Stand as Possible Peace Talks Loom

Donald Trump’s instrumentality to the U.S. presidency has raised hopes that an extremity to Russia’s three-year warfare connected Ukraine — oregon astatine slightest a ceasefire — whitethorn beryllium connected the horizon, adjacent arsenic galore experts uncertainty his quality to present connected his promises to extremity the war.

While the Kremlin signals readiness for talks, it volition request concessions from Ukraine wide seen arsenic unattainable — fueling speculation that Russia seeks to prolong the conflict, which shifted successful its favour successful 2024.

Meanwhile, with Ukraine losing crushed connected the battlefield, Kyiv faces mounting pressure from allies to amusement flexibility successful its conditions for peace. 

Whether Trump volition de-escalate the struggle oregon simply deepen divisions remains to beryllium seen.

This is wherever the 3 parties stand:

Defeats astatine the beforehand unit Zelensky to see concessions

Ukraine’s extremity is to get information guarantees from the U.S. and to extremity the warfare with Russia this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Italy’s Rainews24 broadcaster this month, voicing anticipation that Washington would enactment unit connected the Kremlin.

Zelensky’s caller remarks are a acold outcry from his rhetoric earlier successful the war. In mid-2022, erstwhile Ukraine had efficaciously stalled Russia’s advance, helium banned negotiations with President Vladimir Putin.

Since then, the battlefield dynamic has turned, with Ukraine’s summertime 2023 counteroffensive falling abbreviated of expectations, and Russia making dependable gains successful 2024. Even Kyiv’s incursion into the Kursk portion failed to halt Moscow’s beforehand successful Donetsk. 

Ukrainian governmental expert Petro Oleshchuk said Kyiv’s alteration successful rhetoric reflects its diminished negotiating position, adjacent arsenic it has stepped up attacks connected lipid depots, factories and subject targets wrong Russia.

“Painful blows to Russian infrastructure volition service arsenic arguments successful negotiations,” Oleshchuk told The Moscow Times, but these measures are improbable to transportation decisive value without stabilizing the beforehand lines.

In October, Zelensky presented his Victory Plan to the Ukrainian parliament that outlined Kyiv’s negotiating stance:

• A ceremonial invitation for Ukraine to articulation NATO;
• Strengthening defence capabilities, including support to onslaught Russian territory with Western weapons and enhancing aerial defence systems;
• Creating a strategy of non-nuclear deterrence against Russia;
• Attracting Western investors to Ukraine and expanding sanctions connected Russia;
• Deploying Ukrainian troops successful Europe post-war to trim reliance connected U.S. forces.

Oleshchuk said Zelensky’s Victory Plan is unrealistic fixed Trump’s evident readiness to cull Ukraine’s NATO rank and marque concessions to Russia and the plan’s reliance connected Western allies.

Ukraine's attack to negotiations appears to beryllium edging toward compromise. 

Formally, Kyiv rejects the thought of ceding territory, but it is reportedly considering abandoning subject efforts to reconstruct territorial integrity if it receives information guarantees successful exchange, according to the Financial Times.

Zelensky’s caller acknowledgment that Ukraine lacks the spot to retake Crimea and the Donbas by unit further highlights this pragmatic shift. 

However, experts interviewed by The Moscow Times judge the war’s extremity hinges much connected the Kremlin’s presumption than Ukraine’s. Yet Moscow appears to beryllium successful nary unreserved to halt hostilities and insists connected demands Kyiv cannot accept.

Putin's demands: New territories and NATO exclusion

Since the commencement of the invasion, Russia has avoided intelligibly defining its warfare goals, alternatively citing vague presumption specified arsenic the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine.

However, Putin did articulate circumstantial demands for bid negotiations successful June 2024:

• Ukraine indispensable afloat retreat its forces from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, allowing Russia to unafraid its territorial gains and instrumentality subject power implicit further areas.
• Kyiv indispensable officially wantonness its NATO rank aspirations.
• The presumption of Crimea, Sevastopol and different annexed territories successful eastbound Ukraine arsenic Russia indispensable beryllium recognized successful planetary treaties.
• Sanctions against Russia indispensable beryllium lifted.

He claimed that Moscow would beryllium acceptable to negociate “tomorrow” and would instantly bid a ceasefire if Kyiv began withdrawing its troops.

Many experts are highly skeptical of Putin’s willingness to extremity hostilities oregon marque compromises. 

Political expert Vladimir Fesenko told The Moscow Times that Russia’s demands are much apt to beryllium a negotiating ploy than genuine preconditions.

“The continuation of the warfare alongside parallel negotiations seems much likely. A ceasefire statement whitethorn go imaginable erstwhile a subject stalemate arises, and some sides admit that triumph is impossible,” Fesenko said.

Yet the beforehand lines show nary signs of specified a stalemate.

Over the past year, Russian forces person captured much than 2,660 quadrate kilometers, an country somewhat bigger than the size of Moscow — respective times much than it seized successful 2023.

Its forces are present closing successful connected the captious logistics hub of Pokrovsk — which, if captured, could unfastened a way to controlling each of the Donetsk portion — and is nearing the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which has truthful acold been untouched by the hostilities.

“Putin and the Kremlin person besides stated that negotiations volition lone statesman aft the Kursk portion is afloat returned to Russian control. As a result, hostilities volition continue, and the contented of subject actions successful the Kursk portion whitethorn go different obstacle to starting negotiations,” Fesenko said.

The chances of ending the warfare by 2025 are slim, agreed governmental idiosyncratic Mykhail Komin, a visiting researcher astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations. 

The Kremlin wants Ukraine to beryllium a anemic authorities susceptible to unit done force, portion Kyiv seeks guarantees to forestall different invasion, helium said.

“Putin sees his humanities ngo arsenic ensuring a loyal authorities successful Ukraine. His extremity for 2025 is to support unit connected the battlefield and perchance negociate further advantages for Russia, specified arsenic lifting immoderate sanctions oregon reaching agreements with Trump connected different issues,” Komin said.

Trump’s ambitions and their interaction connected Ukraine

Despite his pledges to extremity the warfare “within 24 hours,” Trump has yet to item precisely however helium plans to bash so.

Political expert Volodymyr Fesenko expressed skepticism implicit whether determination volition beryllium immoderate program astatine all.

“Many who person studied Trump’s actions enactment that helium negotiates intuitively, without a pre-established strategy,” Fesenko said. “So far, we’ve lone seen a postulation of ideas. It’s not a bid program but a acceptable of proposals Trump’s squad volition promote, immoderate of which are rather specific.”

A acceptable of dialog points allegedly prepared by Trump’s squad and leaked successful November by The Wall Street Journal and Reuters entails: 

• Freezing the beforehand lines astatine their existent positions;
• A 20-year suspension of Ukraine’s NATO membership;
• Establishing a demilitarized portion with European peacekeepers;
• Continued U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine to deter Russia.

No further details astir the program person since emerged, leaving experts to speculate astir whose broadside Trump mightiness favour to expedite an extremity to the war. 

Komin said helium believes Trump volition enactment based connected who is stronger astatine the time. 

“Trump’s look for bid won’t conscionable the criteria for a just resolution. It’s apt to bespeak a realpolitik approach, person to Putin’s stance — ‘might makes right’,” helium suggested. 

He said Trump whitethorn effort to initiate a bid process done telephone calls and meetings with Ukrainian and Russian leaders but doubts it volition output results owed to some sides’ unwillingness to compromise.

Komin noted that though Trump’s proposals whitethorn favour Russia implicit Ukraine, European leaders are improbable to fto Ukraine beryllium excluded from negotiations with Moscow.

Trump’s furniture appointments connection clues astir the caller White House’s attack to Ukraine. His incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has criticized Russia’s penetration but antecedently voted against fiscal and subject assistance to Ukraine. 

This month, Waltz said plans for talks betwixt Trump and Putin were already underway and that a telephone could instrumentality spot successful the coming days oregon weeks.

“Everyone knows this has to extremity diplomatically. I conscionable don’t deliberation it’s realistic to accidental we’ll propulsion each Russian retired of each inch of Ukrainian territory,” Waltz said.

Senator Marco Rubio, who has argued for ending the warfare successful Ukraine arsenic rapidly arsenic possible, is acceptable to go the adjacent Secretary of State. Trump’s arguable prime for Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has voiced sympathetic views toward Russia, including justifying its concerns implicit Ukraine’s NATO rank astatine the commencement of the invasion.

Political expert Oleshchuk said that portion galore Trump appointees person criticized U.S. assistance to Ukraine, astir person small power implicit U.S. overseas policy.

He underscored that figures similar Waltz and Trump’s peculiar envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, advocator for ending the warfare and enactment Ukraine’s armament but bash not spot reclaiming occupied territories including Crimea arsenic a realistic goal.

“Trump intelligibly sees nary constituent successful defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but that doesn’t mean helium wants to manus the state implicit to Russia oregon judge decision successful Ukraine,” Oleshchuk said.

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