Who's in charge: The muddy history of the 50-50 Senate

There’s an aged saw successful shot which says that the "tie goes to the runner."

If lone it were that elemental successful the United States Senate.

There is simply a precise existent accidental that the Senate could beryllium tied astatine 50-50 successful the 119th Congress which begins successful January.

The Senate representation successful play adjacent week decidedly favors Republicans. Democrats presently clasp a 51-49 edge. There are 4 autarkic senators who "caucus" with the Democrats, giving them operational control.

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It’s wide believed that the enactment which controls the vice presidency automatically secures power of the Senate. But that’s acold from automatic. It makes consciousness that the vice president – who Constitutionally serves arsenic the President of the Senate and whitethorn interruption ties – should efficaciously assistance Senate power to his oregon her party. There person been 2 Senate ties successful caller history. One Senate necktie was successful 2001. The different 1 was successful 2021-2023. But what unfolded successful those instances is important to recognize wherefore awarding Senate power to the enactment of the vice presidency is not etched connected a chromatic tablet. Moreover, those circumstances could assistance explicate wherefore it mightiness beryllium problematic to settee which enactment mightiness power the Senate successful 2025.

Let’s archetypal rewind.

There was a necktie successful the Senate successful 1881. There’s really immoderate absorbing infighting and resignations of senators which explains the governmental machinations of that circumstance. There was besides a necktie successful 1954  – and aggregate switches successful the majority/minority of senators betwixt 1953-1955. That’s partially owed to the decease of 9 senators implicit a abbreviated play of time.

There person been fewer instances successful American past successful which the Senate's partisan creation has been evenly split. Read connected to spot what happens erstwhile specified a governmental crossroads is reached. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

There person been 2 ties successful the aboriginal 21st Century. But portion 1 enactment oregon the different often had much members than the different side, determination was nary specified happening arsenic a "Majority Leader" oregon "Minority Leader" until the aboriginal 20th Century. Senators regarded the instauration arsenic a assemblage of equals. So determination was nary crushed to designate idiosyncratic arsenic "in charge." But that changed a small much than 100 years ago, launching the modern Senate.

In precocious 2000, the Senate arrived astatine its archetypal necktie successful decades astatine 50-50. The last contention called was a triumph by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., implicit precocious Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., successful December. Keep successful caput that 2000 was besides the twelvemonth of the Florida predetermination quality involving the presidency. President George W. Bush topped Vice President Al Gore. Then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and then-Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., brokered a power-sharing arrangement. The 50-50 split, coupled with Vice President Dick Cheney, propelled Republicans into the majority. Lott was successful charge. But the woody afforded Daschle immoderate level powers not typically granted to the Minority Leader. Republicans would seat Senate committees. But rank by Democrats connected each committee was level with the GOP.

The pact besides included a cardinal rider: If 1 broadside oregon the different really garnered a ceremonial bulk astatine immoderate clip during the 107th Congress, past the woody was disconnected and that enactment genuinely wielded a bulk of the Senate.

The level of comity betwixt Lott and Daschle was instrumental to this agreement. And, each 100 senators agreed to the powerfulness sharing arrangement. One mightiness inquire wherefore everyone was connected board? Lott and Daschle earned the assurance of their members. Plus, Republicans knew that Democrats would outright artifact ANYTHING if they weren’t granted a capable voice. Meantime, Democrats agreed to the pact due to the fact that the alternate meant they were relegated to the minority. Under these circumstances they were successful the number – but with an asterisk.

Lott’s reed-thin bulk was short-lived. By springtime, precocious Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., dropped his rank with the GOP. Jeffords became an autarkic and elected to caucus with the Democrats. Jeffords' maneuver instantly propelled Daschle to Majority Leader.

Control of the Senate for the 117th Congress wasn’t settled until aboriginal 2021. That’s erstwhile Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., to marque it a 50-50 tie. President Biden captured the Presidency. Republicans were leery of being unopen retired similar the Democrats disquieted successful 2001. No fool he, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., insisted connected the aforesaid power-sharing statement hammered retired betwixt Lott and Daschle 2 decades earlier. Democrats would service arsenic the bulk enactment due to the fact that of Vice President Harris. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would beryllium astatine the helm. But the GOP would bask immoderate fruits of powerfulness successful the minority, acknowledgment to the 2001 deal.

On paper, partisan power of a 50-50 Senate is determined by who the Vice President is: successful this case, "Vice President J.D. Vance" presiding implicit an evenly-split enclosure would tilt power to Republicans. "Vice President Tim Walz" would bash the aforesaid for Democrats. (AP/Matt Rourke)

So what happens if there’s a necktie successful 2025?

The Senate is steeped successful customized and tradition. So if there’s a 50-50 deadlock, there’s a bully accidental a "Vice President Tim Walz" means Democrats are successful charge. The aforesaid for the GOP if there’s a "Vice President JD Vance." But we’re operating successful a antithetic governmental ambiance these days. Granted, the power-sharing arrangements of 2001 and 2021 some emerged aft disputed statesmanlike elections. There was an involvement successful some instances to calm the waters successful some of those episodes. But this clip around? Who knows.

What other could muddy the waters? Democrats are pouring wealth into Nebraska to boost autarkic Dan Osborn successful his quest to decision Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Osborn has made the contention overmuch person than expected. But Osborn besides says helium won’t caucus with either party. That could negate the chances of the tie. It besides raises the question astir wherever the Senate mightiness presumption Osborn’s table successful the enclosure and whether helium would service connected immoderate committees. Independent senators person historically caucused with 1 broadside oregon the other.

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Then there’s the question astir conscionable however restive senators whitethorn beryllium aft the election. McConnell is relinquishing his enactment role. The declared candidates to win him are Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., erstwhile Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. It’s imaginable different senators could beryllium successful play, too.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has pushed the GOP enactment candidates to change interior league rules and weaken the Republican leader. It’s acold from wide that determination volition beryllium an appetite for bipartisanship and comity successful the caller Congress if there’s a Senate tie.

And, arsenic successful 2000 and 2020, what if there’s disagreement astir whether Harris oregon former President Trump won the presidency? That could dictate whether senators are consenting to grant the "majority" to 1 broadside oregon the different if it’s not definite if Walz oregon Vance is Vice President.

Senate power successful the 119th Congress whitethorn besides beryllium determined by the fates of susceptible Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. (Reuters/Go Nakamura/AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)

And a footnote connected the powerfulness of the Vice President to interruption ties: the Vice President is not required to ballot to interruption a tie. If there’s a 50-50 ballot connected a measure oregon an amendment successful the Senate, by rule, a necktie loses. So if a ballot is tied, the Vice President won’t ballot if the medication oregon enactment wants the contented to spell down to defeat. There’s nary crushed to formed a "nay" ballot to heap connected with the loss.

That means the Vice President lone votes successful the affirmative. So if a necktie ballot means the contented is failing – and the President and the Vice President privation the contented to spell successful the different absorption – helium oregon she votes "aye." That makes it 51-50 – approving the amendment oregon legislation.

A reminder that the Vice President CANNOT ballot if the ballot is 49 yeas to 50 nays. That’s not a tie. Thus the Vice President isn’t afforded a ballot to borderline the tally to 50-50.

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So, contempt the historical precedent of the vice president dictating which enactment volition power the Senate, the powerfulness of the vice president is really beauteous limited.

Which brings america backmost to our thesis: When it comes to Senate control, obscurity is it written that a "tie goes to the runner." Or successful this case, the enactment of the vice president. And that’s wherefore the imaginable of a divided Senate successful 2025 – amid a hyper volatile governmental clime – could marque it hard to benignant retired which enactment runs the place.