‘Worst-case scenario’: Ukraine awaits Trump’s presidency with trepidation

Kyiv, Ukraine – Considering US President-elect Donald Trump’s unpredictability, Ukraine’s equipped forces are bracing for the worst, a apical subject expert has said.

Trump has promised to extremity the Russian-Ukrainian warfare successful “24 hours”, though helium has hardly elaborated connected that plan, and threatened to halt subject assistance to Kyiv if it does not commencement bid talks with Moscow.

“We’re getting acceptable for the worst-case scenario, erstwhile [Trump] stops each the supplies,” Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, the erstwhile lawman caput of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told Al Jazeera.

Trump’s “peace plan” remains vague, but observers accidental it astir apt involves ceding immoderate oregon each of the Russia-occupied areas – astir 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory – successful speech for a bid woody oregon a frost of front-line positions.

Trump, who often describes himself arsenic an awesome dealmaker, has besides said that if Moscow does not commencement bid talks, helium volition up the ante by supplying precocious arms to Kyiv.

But it is hard to expect thing factual from him, Romanenko said.

“There are expectations, but it’s similar talking to the wind.”

His words are echoed by an adjutant to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who spoke to Al Jazeera connected information of anonymity.

Trump “is dissimilar different presidents, helium whitethorn alteration his decisions depending connected what ft helium touches the level with successful the morning”, the advisor said.

“We approached his squad with a program that could payment america and the West, and helium liked it,” helium said referring to the proposal Zelenskyy presented to Trump during their gathering successful New York successful September.

The program envisages replacing immoderate of the US troops stationed successful Europe with Ukrainians and Kyiv’s “sharing” of earthy resources with its Western partners.

A pistillate with her canine walks astatine a tract of flat buildings deed by a Russian rocket onslaught successful Kharkiv connected November 25, 2024 [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian nationalist is dilatory shifting towards a bid woody with Russia.

Fifty-two percent of Ukrainians would similar the warfare to extremity “as soon arsenic possible,” adjacent it entails territorial concessions, according to a Gallup canvass released connected November 19.

Only 38 percent privation Kyiv to “fight until victory” – a melodramatic driblet successful examination with 73 percent successful 2022.

“These days, we privation peace, not victory,” said Valentyna Krasovets, a 68-year-old Kyiv nonmigratory whose nephew was killed connected the southeastern beforehand enactment successful September 2023.

“I don’t privation to suffer much family. I americium excessively aged to aftermath up to aerial raid sirens each night,” she told Al Jazeera.

‘Any nett volition suit him’

Another Zelenskyy advisor claims the cardinal connection successful dealing with Trump is “profit”.

Trump whitethorn not cancel outgoing President Joe Biden’s permission to usage high-precision US-supplied missiles for strikes wrong Russia if helium “profits” from something, Mykhailo Podolyak reportedly said.

“It tin beryllium a reputational profit, a governmental nett oregon an economical profit,” helium told the Interfax Ukraine quality bureau connected Thursday. “It tin adjacent beryllium a nett [achieved] done humiliating Putin. Any nett volition suit him.”

But truthful far, the Ukrainian authorities is dismayed arsenic to what to bash erstwhile Trump returns to the White House successful January, a Kyiv-based expert said.

“There are nary caller strategies, everyone wants to alteration their tune connected the go,” Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.

He said a cardinal infinitesimal volition beryllium erstwhile Trump appoints a caller US ambassador to Kyiv and a peculiar envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Richard Grenell, who served arsenic Trump’s quality main successful 2020 and who opposes Ukraine’s rank successful NATO, has been named arsenic a imaginable candidate.

Another cardinal fig successful Ukraine’s aboriginal is Republican Senator Marco Rubio, whom Trump named arsenic his caput of state.

Rubio has truthful acold preferred talks with Moscow implicit a boost of subject assistance to Ukraine.

He was 1 of the 15 Republican lawmakers who voted against providing $61bn successful subject assistance for Kyiv successful April.

The Republicans stalled the measure for months, and the hold mostly contributed to Russia’s subject gains successful eastbound Ukraine.

However, the gains are minuscule successful examination with Russia’s astonishing beforehand successful the full-scale invasion’s archetypal months.

Moscow has occupied conscionable implicit 2,000 quadrate kilometres (772 quadrate miles) since 2023 – contempt reportedly losing tens of thousands of troops.

Trump announced Rubio’s candidacy connected November 13, and wrong hours, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said helium was looking guardant to “advancing bid done spot successful Ukraine”.

He repeated the operation Zelenskyy utilized erstwhile hastily congratulating Trump connected his predetermination connected November 5.

Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, said portion conclusions astir the power of idiosyncratic members of Trump’s squad are purely speculative, determination are signs that Zelenskyy has fixed up connected his main presumption astir the instrumentality of each occupied areas, including the Crimean peninsula that Moscow annexed successful 2014.

Before Trump’s election, Kyiv insisted that it would not recognise the occupied territories arsenic portion of Russia.

There is besides a “Putin factor”, said Mitrokhin, who explained that the Russian leader’s behaviour could tally contrary to the expectations of Trump’s squad and origin an upset, earlier they are successful struggle with Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s Western supporters.

Another origin whitethorn beryllium Trump’s presumption connected the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which is aligned with the Patriarchate of Moscow.

It remains Ukraine’s ascendant spiritual radical and controls thousands of parishes contempt increasing unit from authorities.

The Vatican, immoderate European nations and Trump’s supporters person criticised Zelenskyy’s unit connected the religion citing concerns astir spiritual freedoms.

Zelenskyy whitethorn person to easiness the unit “for the involvement of compromise with world and the gathering of a broader conjugation to enactment Ukraine”, Mitrokhin said.