Xi Jinping wraps up G20 summit, state visit to Brazil amid growing US-China competition

RIO DE JANEIRO — 

As the world’s 2 largest economies vie for power successful South America, Brazil sits astatine the bosom of the planetary powerfulness struggle. The choices the state makes successful the coming years could reshape the region’s economical and governmental trajectory, according to analysts.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s caller sojourn to Brazil for a authorities sojourn and the G20 Summit marked the 50th day of diplomatic ties betwixt the 2 countries and underscored Beijing's expanding power successful South America amid intensifying U.S.–China competition.

Xi’s sojourn resulted successful 37 commercialized and diplomatic agreements with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. These agreements spanned agriculture, renewable vigor and infrastructure development, signaling a person concern betwixt the world’s second-largest system and Latin America’s largest nation.

“Brazil has the biggest Chinese concern successful the Global South. Lots of Chinese wealth here,” said Mauricio Santoro, governmental idiosyncratic and planetary relations expert, and writer of Brazil-China Relations successful the 21st Century, successful an interrogation with VOA.

“And the Chinese and Brazilians are backing a batch of the improvement of greenish technologies, upwind power, star power. So, there’s immense imaginable successful that.”

During the visit, Xi and Lula discussed strengthening economical practice betwixt China and Brazil, arsenic good arsenic addressing cardinal planetary issues, including trade, sustainable improvement and geopolitical challenges. Despite the sheer measurement of agreements, experts suggest that galore were mostly symbolic, focusing connected reaffirming commitments alternatively than enacting factual policies.

“Signing 37 agreements is huge. It’s apt they won’t person applicable effects successful the adjacent term,” Livio Ribeiro, an adept connected Sino-Brazilian trade, told VOA. “Most of them are precise wide and unspecific. Though, linkages are being tied up. They are getting stronger. I deliberation that’s the point.”

China’s expanding influence

China has cemented itself arsenic Brazil’s largest trading partner, with bilateral commercialized valued astatine adjacent to $160 cardinal successful 2023. Trade betwixt the 2 countries has accrued by astir 10% successful the archetypal 10 months of 2024, reported China’s authorities quality agency, Xinhua. Over the past decade, Chinese investments successful Brazil, peculiarly successful vigor and infrastructure, person surged.

As China deepens its footprint successful South America, the United States has emphasized brushed powerfulness strategies, peculiarly successful combating clime alteration — a cardinal constituent of Lula’s planetary agenda. The Biden medication accrued its clime concern to $11 cardinal annually and contributed $50 cardinal to Brazil’s Amazon Fund.

However, analysts accidental China’s emergence poses challenges to U.S. power successful South America. Bilateral currency agreements betwixt Beijing and countries specified arsenic Brazil and Chile alteration commercialized successful Chinese currency, the renminbi, gradually undermining the dollar’s dominance successful the region.

“Most American administrations look astatine Latin America arsenic a problem. As a root of instability, of undesirable immigration, organized crime, borderline troubles and truthful on,” said Santoro. “But erstwhile China looks to Latin America, it fundamentally sees opportunities.”

The Trump factor

The incoming Trump medication whitethorn displacement the dynamics of U.S.–China contention successful the region, and Trump’s proposals, including a imaginable sweeping tariff connected Chinese imports, could alienate South American nations and gully them person to Beijing, according to experts.

“As we person Trump coming into bureau successful January 2025, the equilibrium of powerfulness volition change,” Ribeiro told VOA. “And for maine the large question is whether Trump, knowing and knowing that he’s losing Latin America, if helium volition effort to regain it oregon he’ll conscionable fto it go.”

He said higher involvement rates successful the U.S. and a stronger dollar whitethorn exacerbate economical challenges successful South America, devaluing section currencies and expanding borrowing costs. Such volatility could marque Chinese partnerships much appealing.

Chinese officials "don’t judge that Trump volition beryllium capable to physique bully relationships with the leaders of these countries,” Santoro said.

Brazil’s balancing act

President Lula has maintained a cautious approach, strengthening ties with China without alienating the United States. His determination not to articulation China’s planetary infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reflects a strategy to sphere Brazil’s diplomatic flexibility, experts said.

“That’s the precise mode Brazil should woody with it,” Ribeiro told VOA. “Because helium [Lula] did not motion the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the U.S. can’t accidental that we are going into the opposition.”

Analysts enactment Brazil tin perchance inactive payment from the BRI task — for illustration done a projected Brazil-Peru transcontinental railway that remains successful the readying signifier — portion balancing diplomacy betwixt the planetary rivals, analysts said.

“We are trading much and much [with China]. We are utilizing infrastructure. We are receiving Chinese money. So, the integration that comes on with the Belt and Road is reaching us,” said Ribeiro.

Some experts spot opportunities for Brazil successful the U.S.–China rivalry.

“If China is suffering economically with the imposition of U.S. tariffs, it could rather perchance marque a woody with Brazil to bring the commercialized to us, utilizing our established commercialized partnership,” said Brazilian writer Sergio Farias successful an interrogation with VOA.

“I deliberation there’s a large anticipation of Brazil benefiting from this.”