A win-win-win for Congress in Karnataka: 3 seats, and both Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar happy

Given the galore problems facing the Congress government, including intra-party tussles, and the BJP’s assertive attacks against it, the bypolls were being watched intimately for what they meant for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, the 2 parties, arsenic good arsenic the JD(S) that is accelerated losing its turf successful the state.

Channapatna, Shiggaon and Sandur, for which the bypolls were held, had been won by the JD(S), BJP and Congress, respectively, successful the 2023 Assembly elections. The JD(S) is present a BJP ally.

Would the Congress nonaccomplishment to triumph astatine slightest 2 seats suggest that the party’s prospects were connected the wane successful Karnataka little than half-way into its term, and that the 5 guarantees which won the enactment the 2023 polls were losing their lustre?

Would the JD(S) and BJP negociate to divided the main ballot basal of the Congress – the backward classes, Dalits and Muslims – adjacent arsenic the JD(S) retained its clasp connected the ascendant Vokkaliga assemblage successful Channapatna, and the BJP connected the Lingayats successful Shiggaon and Sandur?

Would the bypolls awesome the ascendancy of Deputy CM D K Shivakumar arsenic a Vokkaliga person if the Congress wrested Channapatna from the JD(S), fixed that the seat’s two-term MLA has been erstwhile main curate H D Kumaraswamy of the household Deve Gowda that has held the community’s loyalty for long? Kumaraswamy’s predetermination to Parliament had necessitated the Channapatna bypoll.

Conversely, if determination were bypoll losses, would they awesome the opening of the extremity of the main ministership of Siddaramaiah, who remains 1 of the state’s astir fashionable CMs?

In the end, the Congress won each the seats, falling successful 3 antithetic corners of the state. It wrested Channapatna successful South Karnataka and Shiggaon successful Central Karnataka by 25,413 and 13,448 votes respectively, and retained Sandur successful North Karnataka by 9,649 votes.

The enactment tin present safely assertion that it retains its grip connected its halfway constituency of backward class, Dalit and number voters successful Karnataka, with its effectual implementation of its 5 canvass guarantees successful the 2023 Assembly polls cementing its enactment base.

This was besides evident during the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, erstwhile the Congress accrued its tally from 1 to 9 seats (out of 28), falling successful the astir backward and impoverished constituencies of the state.

As for the Congress’s interior equations, some Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar person reasons to beryllium blessed – the CM for having dampened the BJP attacks for now, and his Deputy for having bested the JD(S) connected its Channapatna turf. Siddaramaiah volition beryllium peculiarly blessed astir Shiggaon, wherever the Congress’s Muslim candidate, Yasir Ahmed Pathan, defeated his BJP predecessor Basavaraj Bommai’s son. Trusted Siddaramaiah protagonist Satish Jarkiholi, who is the PWD Minister with self-confessed ambitions for main ministership travel 2028, is believed to person helped plaything Shiggaon for the Congress.

The JD(S), whose fortunes proceed to tumble, is present staring astatine a menace to not conscionable its Vokkaliga basal but besides implicit nonaccomplishment of its Muslim votes owed to its confederation with the BJP. Kumaraswamy blaming Muslims aft the JD(S)’s mediocre amusement successful the 2023 authorities polls is believed to person outgo his movie histrion lad Nikhil Kumaraswamy the Channapatna spot – the latter’s 3rd consecutive electoral defeat.

Meanwhile, the knives are retired successful the BJP pursuing the bypoll loss, with rebel person Basanagouda Patil Yatnal questioning the enactment of authorities president B Y Vijayendra and his father, erstwhile CM B S Yediyurappa.

“I would similar the enactment precocious bid to present astatine slightest wage attraction to the state… The feedback (that they have) is that Yediyurappa and Vijayendra are large leaders. The radical person rejected them successful the polls,” Yatnal said.

Channapatna

Nearly fractional of the colonisation successful this Assembly constituency are Vokkaligas, and the JD(S) was expecting to get a bulk of their votes positive astatine slightest fractional of the Muslim voters – the assemblage makes up 25% of the colonisation – to win. Nikhil Kumaraswamy’s hostile successful the spot was the party-hopping section strongman, C P Yogeshwar, who contested connected the Congress ticket. A three-time erstwhile MLA from the region, helium has won connected some Congress and BJP tickets.

While Yogeshwar, besides a Vokkaliga, had won 40% of the votes successful the 2023 Assembly polls successful a three-way fight, helium polled 54% of the votes this clip successful a nonstop combat with Nikhil. With Shivakumar lending his value to Yogeshwar, the JD(S) ballot stock fell by 6% from 2023.

For the BJP, the results were further grounds that the enactment does not person a lasting of its ain successful the region, with its past victories present owed to the section lasting of Yogeshwar.

The inclination of Nikhil to displacement constituencies (he migrated to Channapatna lone days earlier the polls) is besides believed to person outgo the JD(S).

A jubilant Yogeshwar said aft the results: “People voted for maine contempt erstwhile PM H D Deve Gowda, who is considered the foremost person of this region, campaigning for his grandson (Nikhil). This shows that radical are opposed to vesting powerfulness successful a azygous family.” He besides took a swipe astatine the BJP’s ain dynastic politics, with Bommai’s lad having suffered defeat.

Nikhil said: “This is my 3rd electoral defeat, and I humbly judge it. I volition stay successful this constituency and service the people… Receiving 87,031 votes arsenic a young person successful specified a abbreviated play is nary tiny feat.”

Shiggaon

While the Channapatna triumph for the Congress was not wholly a astonishment connected relationship of Yogeshwar joining forces with Shivakumar, its triumph successful Shiggaon from wherever erstwhile BJP CM Basavaraj Bommai had won 4 times consecutively since 2008 was one.

Plus, Bommai’s lad Bharat was facing the Congress’s Yasir Pathan, whose candidature had caused heartburn among immoderate successful the party.

What changed is that Bommai usually won this spot with a operation of Muslim (20% of the voters) and Lingayat (32%) base. Muslims voted for Bommai connected relationship of the goodwill for his begetter S R Bommai, a staunch Janata Dal leader. However, Bommai is present successful the BJP, which has adopted a stridently Hindutva code successful Karnataka.

After his lad Bharat’s loss, Bommai claimed that the Congress won the bypoll “by unleashing a flood of money” and connected relationship of being successful powerfulness successful the state.

Jarkiholi, however, attributed the Congress triumph successful Shiggaon – for the archetypal clip since 1994 – to its occurrence successful consolidating the votes of the backward classes (22% of the population) and SC/STs (15%) since the decision of the Lok Sabha polls.

“We person been moving connected the crushed to consolidate the AHINDA votes (a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits)… and we person succeeded,” Jarkiholi said.

Pathan’s ballot stock stood astatine 52%, an summation of 17 percent points implicit the Congress full successful the 2023 Assembly polls. Bharat got 45% of the votes, a 9% dip from his father’s tally successful 2023.

Shivakumar said the results bespeak JD(S) and BJP voters person shifted to the Congress successful Channapatna and Shiggaon. “Look astatine the numbers of the past Assembly elections and the bypolls… How tin specified a large displacement hap without their support?” the Deputy CM said, adding that Muslims tin nary longer enactment the JD(S) present that it is with the BJP.

Siddaramaiah besides called the Congress triumph successful Shiggaon a decision of “the communal authorities of the BJP”, peculiarly since the winning campaigner is simply a Muslim. “A secular and pacifist Karnataka helped america win,” the CM said.

He further saw it arsenic a occurrence of his government’s policies. “I americium not sitting successful an ivory tower, I americium perpetually interacting with people, the beneficiaries of each our warrant schemes are happy… The PM lied astir them… gave mendacious advertisements successful Maharashtra. The radical person fixed their answer.”

Sandur

In the spot that the Congress was expecting to retain, it was fixed a pugnacious combat by the BJP. Finally, Annapurna Tukaram, the woman of Bellary Congress MP E Tukaram, won by a constrictive borderline implicit the BJP’s Banguru Hanumanthu.

The Sandur conflict was seen arsenic a proxy warfare betwixt Minister and section mining baron Santhosh Lad of the Congress – a adjacent subordinate of Siddaramaiah – and erstwhile BJP curate and besides a mining baron, G Janardhan Reddy. The second precocious returned to the BJP aft being exiled pursuing his apprehension successful 2011 successful an amerciable mining scam.

Sandur, an impoverished portion with a astir 34% SC/ST population, a 34% backward people colonisation and 10% Muslims, has been won consecutively by Congress candidates (Lad and E Tukaram) since 2004. The spot was reserved for the ST assemblage successful 2008.