After Dalit ‘shift’ to MVA, Mahayuti rejigs game plan, steps up outreach to smaller SC groups

The fears of imaginable changes to the Constitution spurred elector mobilisation wrong the Dalit community, resulting successful the MVA securing a pb successful 51 of the 88 Assembly segments wherever Dalits correspond implicit 15% of the electorate.

While the governmental sermon regarding societal justness and extortion of law rights proceed to find resonance among Dalits successful the run-up to the November 20 authorities Assembly elections, the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis dispensation seems to beryllium actively moving to scope retired to the Dalit community.

Their caller strategy includes offering assorted schemes for the payment of Dalits too initiating discussions connected the sub-classification of the Scheduled Castes (SCs), which galore presumption arsenic an effort to pull Dalit voters not affiliated to the Ambedkarite movement.

Dalit factor

Dalits play a pivotal relation successful Maharashtra politics. According to the 2011 Census, the SCs relationship for astir 12% of the state’s colonisation encompassing implicit 59 chiseled castes. Contrary to the cognition of the Dalit assemblage arsenic a monolith, it is importantly diverse. Among assorted SC groups, the followers of the Ambedkarite movement, peculiarly Mahars, are a ascendant player. The Mahar assemblage converted to Buddhism nether B R Ambedkar’s influence, seeking a rejection of caste favoritism and a committedness to societal equality. Neo-Buddhists (Mahars) marque up astir 40% of the Dalit population, and their governmental mobilisation centred connected societal justness and empowerment often positions them successful absorption to the parties similar the BJP and the erstwhile undivided Shiv Sena.

Historically, the BJP has recovered enactment among smaller Dalit groups, specified arsenic Matangs, which highlights the diverseness successful governmental affiliations wrong the SCs. This complexity is reflected successful assorted polls: successful the 2019 Assembly elections, of the 88 Assembly seats with important Dalit voters, the BJP and its past state Sena, got 46 seats arsenic against 33 seats won by the Congress-NCP alliance.

However, a important displacement successful the Dalit votes was seen during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, erstwhile the MVA confederation led successful 51 of these seats arsenic compared to the Mahayuti’s 32. The MVA pulled disconnected this show contempt the beingness of different contender, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of B R Ambedkar, which drew a blank.

“In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Ambedkarite supporters agreed down the MVA with a wide objective: to decision the BJP, which they comprehend arsenic representing an ideology fundamentally astatine likelihood with Dr. Ambedkar’s imaginativeness for India. Fears of imaginable changes to the Constitution— particularly concerning reservations and rights for marginalised communities — mobilised Ambedkarites to align with parties they believed would safeguard their interests. This conjugation importantly contributed to the MVA’s success. The resonance of these issues remains potent, and I expect a akin voting strategy among Ambedkarites successful the upcoming Assembly elections,” said governmental expert Madhu Kamble.

Dalits and BJP

In the aftermath of its setback successful the Lok Sabha elections, the incumbent Mahayuti conjugation appears to beryllium sharpening its absorption connected the Dalit groups that stay extracurricular the power of the Ambedkarite movement. This strategy targets the much backward Matang community, which, dissimilar Ambedkarites, continues to support person ties with the Hindu taste practices.

Matangs look terrible marginalisation, impacting their entree to acquisition and employment opportunities compared to their Ambedkarite counterparts, who thin to beryllium much educated and clasp a comparatively larger stock of authorities jobs. While initiatives similar the fiscal enactment nether the Maharashtra government’s Ladki Bahin Yojana – which gives Rs 1,500 monthly allowance to 2.5 crore underprivileged women – are envisaged to payment galore economically disadvantaged communities, including Matangs, the BJP’s openness to sub-classification wrong the SCs signals a bid to scope retired to the non-Ambedkarite Dalit groups. The sub-classification involves a quota wrong quota wrong SCs to code disparities and guarantee a fairer organisation of benefits, specified arsenic reservations successful acquisition and employment, peculiarly wherever Ambedkarites are perceived to predominate the quota benefits.

In a landmark judgement successful August, the Supreme Court allowed the states to sub-classify the SCs / STs (Scheduled Tribes) to guarantee assistance of quota to much backward castes successful these groups.

A time earlier the Election Commission announced the polls successful the state, the Mahayuti government, connected October 15, issued a resolution, establishing a one-member committee chaired by a retired precocious tribunal justice Anant Badar to analyse the contented of the SC sub-classification.

“The governmental scenery among Dalit voters is fluid. The much assertive and politically conscious Ambedkarites are firmly opposed to the BJP, portion a important information of the Dalit assemblage whitethorn respond to the incentives being offered,” said Siddhant Waghmare, a governmental activistic and Dalit entrepreneur from Aurangabad. “Whether the BJP tin sway capable of these non-Ambedkarite Dalit votes volition yet find the result of this election.”

Despite the Ambedkarite movement’s absorption to the right-wing ideologies, the BJP has been making inroads into the Dalit groups.

In Ramabai Nagar, a Dalit stronghold successful Mumbai, immoderate BJP workers constituent to the community’s enactment for the party. “In airy of the Assembly elections, radical are starting to spot done the misleading narratives propagated during the Lok Sabha elections regarding reservations and law issues. They recognise which representatives genuinely advocator their interests and which ones presumption them simply arsenic a ballot bank,” said Sanghadeep Kedare, a section BJP worker.

While the BJP intensifies its efforts to woo Dalits, the MVA —particularly the authorities Congress enactment — has struggled to code perceptions of their neglect successful the past.

“The perspectives of young Dalit voters toward the MVA, particularly the Congress, are shaped by existent socio-economic realities. To resonate with these voters, the MVA indispensable show a genuine committedness to their rights and prosecute with their economical and governmental aspirations. Currently, there’s a deficiency of disposable engagement from the MVA with the Dalit community, which could interaction the upcoming elections,” warned Pramod Sakhare, an activistic from Nashik.