America does exit polls differently to the UK - here's how and why

There are 2 main differences betwixt predetermination sum successful the UK and the United States.

Last July, astatine 10pm, Sky News' exit canvass graphic predicted a Labour landslide and a monolithic decision for the Conservatives.

Confirmation of this forecast was a agelong clip coming since constituency results are lone announced by section returning officers erstwhile each votes person been counted.

US predetermination latest: Data reveals perchance decisive trends successful 2 plaything states

Americans bash things otherwise and for bully reason. Polling stations adjacent overmuch earlier successful the eastbound than they bash successful the west. When voting has hours to spell successful immoderate states, they've already started counting elsewhere.

There is simply a "wait for it" infinitesimal erstwhile voting closes successful westbound seashore states and the broadcasters tin uncover the nationalist exit canvass headline, but this won't archer america the winner.

Instead, it volition archer america the types of radical who person voted for Harris oregon Trump and the issues that dominated the outcome.

So far, one-nil to the UK, I think. But, present comes the adjacent bit.

Instead of postponing announcements astir votes until each past 1 has been accounted for, each authorities past begins releasing figures arsenic and erstwhile votes are being counted.

And they bash truthful successful specified a mode wherever we tin comparison this clip with previously. Not for them declarations successful sports halls with dodgy microphones but alternatively moving tallies for precincts (think our section assembly wards) and counties (ranging from tiny to huge).

It's these information that US broadcasters specified arsenic NBC volition usage to "call" each state's ballot for president. The tv networks are large players successful the US election drama.

Over 160 cardinal votes volition beryllium formed successful the election, much than 5 times the fig formed successful our wide predetermination past July.

And portion the result of our predetermination was successful nary uncertainty erstwhile the broadcasters' exit canvass revealed Labour had won a landslide majority, that volition beryllium acold from the lawsuit successful the conflict for the presidency.

As successful the UK, a consortium of US broadcasters, comprising NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN, signifier the nationalist predetermination pool.

This commissions the user probe company, Edison Research, to survey voters successful implicit 600 polling places arsenic radical exit their polling station.

The survey besides includes telephone interviews with radical casting a ballot earlier 5 November. Once completed, the US exit canvass volition person obtained responses from implicit 20,000 voters, a akin fig that were collected for the wide election.

Two surveys of voters, therefore, but present important differences successful their intent go clear.

The UK mentation is wholly focussed connected predicting the organisation of seats among the competing parties and, thereby, the victor and its apt House of Commons majority. Over caller elections it has proved beauteous bully astatine achieving this task.

By contrast, the US mentation is overmuch little acrophobic astir predicting the victor (and determination are precise bully reasons for taking this approach) and much funny successful the run issues that mattered to voters, however they viewed the candidates and what factors motivated them to marque their choices.

The survey identifies cardinal demographic characteristics for each responsive - men oregon women, age, taste heritage, and acquisition qualifications.

Combined with questions relating to their prime for president this clip around, their accustomed partisan preference, Democrat, Republican oregon nary of the above, the survey information enables a considered and elaborate investigation of what kinds of voters made what kinds of choices and their reasons for doing so.

Broadcast organisations, including Sky News, volition usage the 2024 exit canvass to item differences betwixt men and women voters successful narration to the termination issue.

The canvass volition besides amusement however the system ranked among voters and whether Donald Trump's stance connected debased taxation gained oregon mislaid him votes among antithetic societal groups. Did Kamala Harris's relation with the Biden medication and the challenges of amerciable migration beryllium to beryllium a affirmative oregon a antagonistic successful her bid for the White House?

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All precise interesting, but aren't we each tuning successful to spot who's won? While the US exit canvass can, successful theory, beryllium utilized for this intent it is unwise to bash truthful successful what is proving to beryllium an highly adjacent race.

Sky's tracker of nationalist polls shows the Democrat bluish enactment and the Republican reddish enactment moving ever person unneurotic but with Harris presently marginally ahead. But adjacent if she loses the nationalist vote, the polls would inactive beryllium wrong the borderline of error.

Of course, she could yet triumph much votes than Trump and inactive suffer the election, arsenic Hillary Clinton discovered erstwhile she mislaid to him successful 2016. Winning votes is necessary, but it's wherever those votes are and the disposable fig of electoral assemblage votes that matters the most.

Trump bushed Clinton due to the fact that his votes were amended distributed than hers. History could beryllium repeated.

Releasing precinct-level voting numbers arsenic counting progresses is indispensable to US predetermination coverage. The nationalist predetermination excavation employs implicit a 1000 researchers to cod votes from each of the 50 states.

Read more:
Six ways predetermination could play out
Every determination matters successful a contention teetering connected weapon edge

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Additionally, NBC News volition augment these figures with much elaborate investigation anterior to making its telephone for each authorities and the electoral assemblage votes for Harris oregon Trump. The archetypal to scope 270 assemblage votes wins.

Professor John Lapinsky of Pennsylvania University leads NBC's determination desk.

Although the broadcasters person pooled resources to bring america the exit poll, each volition independently analyse the existent voting figures arsenic they go available.

Lapinsky and his squad connected behalf of NBC volition telephone the authorities for either Harris oregon Trump lone erstwhile they are satisfied that the starring candidate's ballot is sufficiently ample that helium oregon she cannot beryllium overtaken.

This a large infinitesimal for each broadcaster, particularly erstwhile the contention is apt to beryllium adjacent and wherever societal media whitethorn beryllium playing a important relation successful stoking accusations and counter-accusations of a fraudulent election.

With truthful overmuch astatine stake, these decisions volition instrumentality clip and patience.

Our July predetermination was done and dusted successful clip for the meal bulletins. It could beryllium days of counting, recounting and ineligible appeals earlier we cognize the victor of the 2024 statesmanlike election.