Analysis: Russia, Iran strengthen alliance after Syria setback

Iran and Russia person finalised a long-delayed cooperation agreement, reinforcing ties betwixt the 2 countries conscionable arsenic they some look mounting geopolitical pressures.

The 20-year deal, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin successful Moscow connected Friday, enhances subject and defence cooperation, and includes a clause that neither state would let its territory to beryllium utilized for immoderate enactment that would endanger the information of the other, nor supply immoderate assistance to immoderate enactment attacking either country.

Such a woody has been talked astir for years, but existent events person made the request for an statement much pressing.

For Russia, the warfare successful Ukraine has strained its geopolitical standing, portion Iran, successful summation to Moscow, has been grappling with Western sanctions and the fallout from Israel’s attacks connected and weakening of several of its allies successful the region, arsenic good arsenic the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s authorities successful Syria successful aboriginal December.

It is arguably Syria that has provided the cardinal impetus to the strengthening of ties, with some powers losing a cardinal state successful al-Assad, weakening their powerfulness successful the wider Middle East.

Both Moscow and Tehran were yet consenting to fto spell of al-Assad, having been caught off-guard by the absorption advance. But they present look committed to strengthening their ain bilateral relationship.

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkian’s authoritative sojourn to Moscow reflects that.

The statement builds not lone connected Russian-Iranian practice regarding Ukraine and efforts to evade Western sanctions, but besides connected the North-South Transport Corridor – an inaugural championed by Moscow to facilitate commercialized from Asia to Russia.

This route, designed to bypass geopolitical choke points similar the Suez Canal and the Baltics, favours a onshore corridor done Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea.

Syria arsenic a catalyst

Prior to the opening of the warfare successful Syria successful 2011, some Moscow and Tehran had their ain respective strategical partnerships with Damascus.

Russia’s concern was anchored to the naval basal successful Tartous, established successful 1971 to task powerfulness crossed the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase, built successful 2015 initially to supply aerial enactment to al-Assad against the Syrian opposition. Over time, the airbase has played a pivotal relation successful Moscow’s operations successful Africa.

Iran, meanwhile, deepened its relations during the Iran-Iraq warfare successful the 1980s, driven by an knowing that some Tehran and Damascus opposed Western interference successful the region. Syria became an important conduit to the Lebanese Shia radical Hezbollah, portion of Iran’s “Shia crescent” and “axis of resistance”.

Iranian and Russian strategical interests converged successful Syria arsenic the warfare progressed, peculiarly successful 2015, erstwhile some stepped successful forcefully to forestall an absorption victory.

Russia’s subject involution successful 2015 stabilised al-Assad’s regime, aided by Iranian-aligned militias that played a decisive relation successful turning the tide of the conflict.

“Relations betwixt Russia and Iran person since expanded,” Kirill Semenov, a non-resident adept with the Russian International Affairs Council, told Al Jazeera. “After 2020, events successful Syria had lone a insignificant interaction connected Russian-Iranian relations, which person developed successful galore caller directions.”

These see subject cooperation, and an enlargement of economical ties, with Tehran and Moscow moving to bypass Western sanctions done alternate banking mechanisms and vigor deals. Iran has besides positioned itself arsenic a captious transit hub for Russia’s North-South Transport Corridor, offering a captious commercialized way to Asia.

Ties person besides deepened since the Russia-Ukraine war, in which Russia is utilizing Iranian-supplied drones, driven by shared interests successful confronting the perceived planetary hegemony of the United States. Both countries question alternatives to the US-led planetary order, with Iran viewing Russia arsenic a spouse successful its pivot towards the East.

Iran joining the BRICS radical of emerging economies successful 2023, a nine Russia was already a portion of, tin beryllium viewed arsenic portion of this effort. BRICS offers a level for collaboration, arsenic Iran eyes rank and integration into a multipolar economical bloc aligned with its goals.

“Building a multipolar satellite and countering the expansionist plans of the United States and the corporate West stay cardinal to Russian-Iranian cooperation,” Semenov said.

It is this communal force attack that has seen Iran and Russia turn closer, said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting chap astatine the German Institute for International Security Affairs.

“The 2 sides person taken steps to elevate their narration toward immoderate benignant of strategical partnership, peculiarly successful areas similar subject and information cooperation, and much precocious successful economical cooperation, aimed astatine evading sanctions and adapting to the antagonistic implications of economical pressures from the West,” said Azizi.

Limits to a Russian-Iranian partnership

While the practice pact signed connected Friday signals a deepening partnership, it does not see a communal defence clause oregon represent the enactment of a ceremonial alliance, dissimilar the pact Russia signed with North Korea past year.

That possibly reflects a bounds to the narration betwixt Iran and Russia that has already been seen successful Syria.

There, Tehran and Moscow could not find communal crushed and were much often than not undermining each different oregon incapable to emergence to the situation of rebuilding the country.

For example, successful 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it wide his state would beryllium the lone 1 to rebuild Syria’s vigor industry. Iran, which was anxious to reap the benefits of reconstruction successful Syria, was kept astatine bay by al-Assad and Moscow with 1 Iranian parliamentarian informing that Iran was being “sacrificed”.

The caller Syrian medication whitethorn besides go a constituent of divergence betwixt Russia and Iran, with Moscow maintaining a much conciliatory approach.

Azizi noted that the fallout from al-Assad’s autumn for some Russia and Iran volition beryllium connected galore variables, including “whether oregon not determination has been immoderate behind-the-scenes statement oregon knowing betwixt Russia connected 1 broadside and the US, Turkiye, and [the former] Syrian rebels connected the other, arsenic portion of a imaginable broad bundle that includes Syria and Ukraine”.

“For example, if Russia tin support its subject bases successful Syria, albeit successful a much reduced capacity, and if determination is an statement to extremity the warfare successful Ukraine aft [US President-elect] Donald Trump takes office, Russia whitethorn really consciousness little request for Iranian enactment connected assorted fronts successful some Syria and Ukraine,” Azizi added, though helium added that helium believed immoderate cardinal changes successful Iran-Russia relations were improbable fixed the “increasing extent of cooperation” successful the past fewer years.

Divergence is imaginable successful different areas too, peculiarly connected the taxable of atomic weapons, which Iran has been accused by the West of seeking. Iran’s defence doctrine officially opposes the pursuit of atomic weapons, but immoderate factions successful Iran person present publically called for that to alteration aft Israel landed respective blows to its allies, peculiarly Hezbollah successful Lebanon.

Russia has historically been progressive successful Iran’s atomic programme, including successful the operation of the Bushehr atomic powerfulness plant, but repeatedly stalled advancement passim the 2000s and 2010s, leaving immoderate successful Iran to impeach Russia of being an unreliable partner. Moscow besides delayed the transportation of the S-300 rocket defence strategy betwixt 2010 and 2016, a effect of the sanctions placed connected Tehran by Western nations.

“Russia doesn’t privation Iran to beryllium equipped with atomic weapons … [that] would alteration the equilibrium of powerfulness successful the Middle East against Russia’s interests. The champion script for Russia is for Iran to stay nether sanctions and to situation the US and Europe implicit its atomic programme,” said Armin Montazeri, overseas argumentation exertion astatine Hammihan Daily successful Tehran.

“If Russia were to cooperate successful containing Iran, it would apt question concessions from the US connected the Ukraine issue,” Montazeri added.

New directions successful the Middle East

Geopolitical dynamics tin ever alteration depending connected events connected the ground, arsenic Syria has proven, and with the deficiency of immoderate beardown ideological bonds beyond an anti-US strategy, relations betwixt Iran and Russia could fray.

The changing quality of alliances tin beryllium seen successful Turkiye’s absorption to Iran and Russia, and its practice with them.

In December 2024, arsenic the Assad authorities crumbled, the Turkish, Iranian, and Russian overseas ministers convened connected the sidelines of the Doha Forum successful Qatar.

The tripartite gathering was convened nether the Astana process, a diplomatic inaugural aimed astatine managing the Syrian conflict, wherever Russia and Iran had served arsenic guarantors connected the authorities broadside and Turkiye connected the opposition’s.

Astana served arsenic an accidental for the 3 powers to enactment unneurotic to execute information goals successful Syria, adjacent arsenic they supported antithetic sides. But for astir of the process, it was Turkiye that was successful the weaker position, considering what was seen arsenic al-Assad’s de facto triumph successful the war.

That has present changed, and it is Turkiye’s longstanding enactment for the erstwhile absorption that places it successful a presumption of powerfulness vis-a-vis Iran and Russia, and a conduit for power connected Damascus.

It is simply a caller world that they are going to person to accommodate to, said Omer Ozkizilcik, manager of Turkish Studies astatine the Omran Center for Strategic Studies successful Istanbul.

“Iran, portion intelligibly disadvantaged, volition person to set to the caller world and found immoderate signifier of narration with Syria’s caller government,” said Ozkizilcik, referring to the astir carte blanche the Assad authorities gave Iran to run wrong Syrian territory.

For its part, Russia, portion hoping to support its bases successful Syria, is hedging the caller world by turning partially to Libya, wherever it has a adjacent narration with the eastbound authorities based successful Benghazi and Russian cargo planes person made respective flights to its al-Khadim base.

Iran, connected the different hand, has seemingly retreated to Iraq successful a bid to consolidate its position. Reports person emerged that it has pushed its allies successful Iraq to halt firing rockets and drones towards Israel, which whitethorn person led to US-Israeli attacks connected their positions.

In this context, Iran is apt to enactment up its power successful Iraq, “the past pillars of Iran’s axis of resistance,” said Montazeri.

Iraq’s value present serves arsenic a fiscal assets and antiaircraft buffer for Tehran, which relies connected the state for economical enactment amid sanctions.

Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy deliberation vessel successful Tehran, said Iran has a past of adapting to shifting geopolitical dynamics, and volition beryllium capable to withstand immoderate changes and support its narration with Russia.

Yet immoderate deals look betwixt Russia and the US pursuing Trump’s inauguration, Iran’s enactment does not expect Putin to radically change his strategical absorption towards Iran.

“Putin is good alert of the anti-Russian stance embedded successful the US and European establishments,” Emamian said.

“Over the past 3 years, Russia has faced what it perceives arsenic an existential situation from the West … it seems improbable that Putin would hazard his longstanding alliances, particularly with those who person proven their loyalty successful captious moments, specified arsenic successful Syria and Crimea,” Emamian added.