Analysts: American Iron Dome reduces nuclear coercion but drives arms race

WASHINGTON — 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid to physique an American mentation of the Iron Dome to shield the U.S. from aerial attacks volition deter China and Russia from coercing the U.S. utilizing atomic weapons but could thrust a three-way arms race, said analysts.

The U.S. government’s Missile Defense Agency on Friday asked the defence industry to place technologies and capabilities disposable to conception the Iron Dome for America. The deadline is the extremity of February.

It made the petition successful effect to Trump’s enforcement bid signed connected Jan. 27, mounting distant a question to physique an American Iron Dome.

“The United States volition supply for the communal defence of its citizens and the Nation by deploying and maintaining a next-generation rocket defence shield,” the enforcement order stated.

The American Iron Dome volition support the U.S. “against ballistic, hypersonic, precocious cruise missiles, and different next-generation aerial attacks from peer, near-peer, and rogue adversaries,” according to the statement.

It volition guarantee the U.S. has “its second-strike capability,” meaning it would beryllium capable to motorboat atomic retaliation.

The Iron Dome would besides see a reappraisal of rocket defence posture to place ways for U.S. allies and partners to summation practice connected rocket defence improvement and operations.

Trump ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to gully up a program successful the adjacent 3 months to physique the rocket shield.

Strengthening deterrence

Robert Peters, probe chap for Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense astatine the Heritage Foundation, said connected Thursday via phone, the Iron Dome for America “will instrumentality distant the enactment for atomic coercion that an histrion could effort to clasp implicit the U.S.” successful summation to defending the U.S. from an existent strike.

“It is feasible for america to physique an Iron Dome,” helium said, “and determination is nary crushed wherefore we should not bash so, peculiarly fixed that we are seeing the autocrats successful North Korea, China, and Russia engaging successful atomic coercion.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to usage atomic weapons aggregate times during an ongoing warfare successful Ukraine that began with its penetration successful 2022.

In November, Putin revised the Russian threshold for utilizing atomic weapons successful a doctrine issued aft erstwhile U.S. President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to onslaught targets wrong Russia with U.S.-made longer-range missiles.

The doctrine announced that Russia has the right to usage atomic weapons to respond to a accepted weapons attack. Previously, Russia reserved the close to usage atomic weapons lone erstwhile an onslaught threatened its existence.

Patrycja Bazylczyk, a probe subordinate for the Missile Defense Project astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “If implemented well, an ‘iron dome for America’ could bolster American defence and impact the strategical calculus of our adversaries.”

She told VOA connected Monday, “Improving homeland aerial and rocket defenses reduces the assurance of a imaginable attacker, thereby raising the threshold for onslaught and contributing to deterrence.”

The Iron Dome program resembles erstwhile President Ronald Reagon's projected dual nonsubjective of Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and atomic disarmament, said Hans Kristensen, the manager of the Nuclear Information Project astatine the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

The SDI, besides came to beryllium called Star Wars, was announced successful 1983 to make a space-based defence strategy to support the U.S. from atomic missiles.

Risk of arms race

Trump's "Iron Dome initiative, to immoderate extent, echoes his interest astir atomic weapons," but "a stronger U.S. rocket defence strategy would astir surely marque it much hard to scope a atomic statement with Russia and China due to the fact that of their interest that much effectual rocket defenses would summation the menace to their atomic retaliatory capability," continued Kristensen.

Trump said successful a video connection to the World Economic Forum successful Davos, Switzerland, connected Jan. 23 that helium wants to sermon "denuclearization" with Russia, and that China would request to travel along.

Kristensen told VOA connected Thursday that "FAS applauds Trump's remarks astir the request for atomic limits and yet denuclearization and impulse the medication to prosecute these goals."

He added, "Nuclear deterrence tin beryllium maintained with acold less atomic weapons" and having atomic simplification talks is "urgent due to the fact that the New START pact expires successful astir 1 year."

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a atomic arms simplification pact betwixt the U.S. and Russia, is acceptable to expire successful February 2026.

Daryl Kimball, enforcement manager of Arms Control Association, told VOA connected Friday Trump envisions "more ambitious strategy to thwart strategical rocket attacks by Russia oregon China" than his efforts successful 2019.

"It is not realistic to judge that an effectual strategy would beryllium feasible anytime soon, if ever, chiefly due to the fact that adversaries volition respond by seeking to overwhelm rocket defence systems successful bid to support their ain capableness to deter U.S. accepted oregon atomic attack," helium said.

Kimball added, however, "We invited Trump's involvement successful negotiating agreements with Russia and China to trim the 'tremendous' costs of atomic weapons by reducing oregon 'denuclearizing' with Russia and China. Without specified a deal, we could spot a costly three-way violative atomic arms races that nary 1 tin win."

The U.S. has astir 5,044 atomic warheads portion Russia has over, 5,500 and China has astir 500 atomic warheads, according to the FAS.

The Pentagon in its yearly report released successful December connected China's subject estimates that China volition person much than 1,000 operational atomic warheads by 2030.

North Korea, done its state-run KCNA, connected Monday expressed absorption to the U.S. program to physique the Iron Dome, describing it arsenic a “hegemonic effort to support its subject supremacy.”

The Chinese Embassy successful Washington told VOA connected Monday that it does not person immoderate comments connected the contented astatine this time.

A apical Russia diplomat quoted by the authorities quality bureau Tass connected Thursday said America’s Iron Dome “puts an extremity to the prospects of strategical violative arms simplification connected atomic and rocket arsenals successful favour of their quantitative and qualitative increase.”

Richard Weitz, manager for the Center for Political-Military Analysis astatine Hudson Institute, said, “The Russians and Chinese person ever said that if the U.S. builds amended defenses, they’re going to physique amended offenses truthful they tin flooded these defenses.”

He told VOA connected Thursday, the Iron Dome effort, on with Trump’s involvement successful having atomic simplification talks with China and Russia, aims to trim wide threats to the U.S., but it would beryllium hard to get China connected committee denuclearization talks.