Can Arvind Kejriwal in defeat be the Arvind Kejriwal on the up and up? Now comes the test

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On September 15, 2024, days aft helium was granted bail by the Supreme Court successful the excise argumentation case, Arvind Kejriwal announced his determination to measurement down arsenic the Delhi Chief Minister.

“I volition not beryllium connected the CM’s spot till the radical elite maine and nonstop maine to the spot again. I volition spell among the radical and inquire them for votes. Agar janta ko lagta hai Kejriwal imaandar hai, toh mai CM ki spot mein jaa kar baithoonga, nahin to nahin baithoonga (If the radical deliberation Kejriwal is honest, past I volition beryllium connected the CM’s seat; otherwise, I volition not),” helium had said.

On February 8, Delhi denied him that chance. The New Delhi spot from wherever Kejriwal mislaid has fixed the Capital its CM since 1998 – archetypal Sheila Dikshit and past Kejriwal. It has a tiny electorate of 1.09 lakh voters, is the spot virtually of the country’s powerfulness and besides has a ample slum population. This time, it besides saw the maximum elector deletions – astir 40,000.

Kejriwal archetypal arrived connected Delhi’s governmental signifier arsenic portion of the India Against Corruption question whose look was Anna Hazare. The question tapped into the discontent astir the “inactive” UPA authorities astatine the Centre, arsenic good arsenic the BJP run of anti-corruption against it.

While the BJP led by Narendra Modi reaped the benefits of it astatine the Centre, successful Delhi, the signifier of the India Against Corruption protest, the gainer was Kejriwal. In 2013, stunning the Congress that had led Delhi for 15 years, helium led the AAP to a 53% ballot stock successful the Assembly elections, with Kejriwal himself defeating incumbent main curate Sheila Dikshit from New Delhi.

By winning successful 2015 again with 67 retired of 70 seats, and successful 2020 with 62, Kejriwal went wherever nary enactment had gone earlier wrong years of formation. By winning Punjab excessively successful 2022, the AAP became the lone determination enactment to beryllium successful powerfulness successful 2 states.

Kejriwal successful decision hence marks a wholly caller section for the party, arsenic helium has personally not suffered a nonaccomplishment since that 2013 win, barring erstwhile helium stood against Prime Minister Narendra Modi successful Varanasi successful the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The 2014 election, though, was much symbolic than thing else.

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Even erstwhile the AAP suffered setbacks successful its bids to expand, New Delhi provided the cushion Kejriwal needed to enactment successful contention.

Now, not lone has Kejriwal himself lost, but besides erstwhile lawman CM Manish Sisodia, his No. 2 and the look of its acquisition exemplary – the AAP government’s astir palmy initiative. A tiny consolation for the enactment was incumbent CM Atishi’s triumph against the BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri from Kalkaji.

Can the AAP past the Delhi nonaccomplishment and bounce backmost is the trial earlier the enactment – for its aboriginal not conscionable successful the Capital but besides nationally – peculiarly fixed that it draws its oxygen from Kejriwal.

What whitethorn beryllium important successful this is the party’s escaped structure, not bound by an ideology – the AAP has often expressed pridefulness successful this, saying repeatedly that its lone ideology is work. However, this besides leaves the enactment susceptible without the glue of power, compared to parties with a stronger idiosyncratic basal specified arsenic the BJP and Congress.

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But the AAP has a bully starting constituent arsenic it inactive holds 43.55% of the ballot stock successful the Capital, conscionable 2.3% down the BJP’s. This is awesome fixed the anti-incumbency of 12 years against the AAP, 10 of those arsenic virtually unchallenged. This translates to 22 seats successful the Delhi Assembly, giving the Capital its archetypal existent Opposition successful a decade.

In their archetypal reactions aft the results, some Kejriwal and Atishi vowed to play the relation of a constructive absorption that volition not vanish from among the people. In a video message, Kejriwal thanked each AAP volunteers for “fighting a precise bully election”, and said: “We did a batch of enactment successful the past decade… We improved, we did a batch of enactment connected improving h2o availability and the infrastructure… But we volition not springiness up… We volition not conscionable beryllium a constructive absorption but volition besides bash societal work, and assistance radical successful our idiosyncratic capacity. We did not travel into authorities for power, we came to service the people.”

Sources successful the enactment said the elder enactment would besides absorption much connected Punjab, and different states – asserting that the Delhi nonaccomplishment won’t curtail its nationalist ambitions. “All is not lost. We inactive are a nationalist enactment and are moving a authorities successful Punjab with a much than comfy majority. The nonaccomplishment successful Delhi is an accidental to grow into different states and consolidate our positions there,” a elder person claimed.

However, immoderate specified aspiration depends connected whether the AAP tin withstand the 2nd situation – and possibly the biggest – of keeping its flock together.

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The unit from the BJP is expected to beryllium immense, and successful the run-up to the Delhi elections, 4 contiguous and erstwhile ministers of the enactment had quit, with Kailash Gahlot being the biggest loss. The erstwhile concern and transport minister, Gahlot was among the winners connected Saturday, emerging victorious from Bijwasan, a spot helium contested from for the archetypal clip ever. The spot that helium vacated – Najafgarh – was besides won by the BJP.

Eight sitting MLAs who were denied tickets by the AAP successful the run-up to the polls had besides shifted to the BJP.

A enactment insider said they were not worried. “We bash not expect enactment workers and leaders, who stayed with america done what was possibly our astir trying time, to permission astatine this time. The assurance and direction, however, has to travel from the top. Already respective radical person met Arvind ji. A much structured treatment is expected successful the coming two-three days,” the insider said.

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