Canada-India tensions could escalate cyber threats, hinder immigration

OTTAWA — 

Canada's deepening quality with India implicit its alleged run of unit against Sikhs successful Canada could intensify Indian-based cyber espionage and clasp backmost immigration, but analysts and experts spot nary contiguous interaction connected trade.

Concern astir a widening rift betwixt the 2 countries comes aft a elder Canadian authoritative told a parliamentary nationalist information committee connected Tuesday that Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, a adjacent state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was the mastermind down the alleged plots.

While Indian officials dismissed the official's statement, the disclosure mightiness worsen a quality that started a twelvemonth agone erstwhile Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cited credible grounds linking Indian agents to the June 2023 shooting of Sikh person Hardeep Singh Nijjar successful British Columbia.

In response, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier this month, accusing them of involvement. Four men person been charged with his murder.

The Canadian signals quality bureau that monitors foreign-based cyber threats said New Delhi was astir apt already conducting threatening cyber enactment against Canadian networks for spying purposes.

"As Canada and India perchance whitethorn person immoderate tensions, it is imaginable that we whitethorn spot India privation to flex those cyber menace actions against Canadians," Caroline Xavier, caput of the agency, known arsenic Communications Security Establishment Canada, told a Wednesday quality conference. The bureau has antecedently described India arsenic an emerging threat.

On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is improbable to instrumentality much punitive steps until much details of the Nijjar lawsuit emerge, said Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada deliberation tank.

Cabinet ministers are owed to attest astir the substance to the nationalist information committee and the execution proceedings of the 4 men has yet to start, she noted.

"If determination are charges laid successful the process connected individuals that are surviving successful India astatine immoderate level, past it would trigger an extradition process which could instrumentality years. And of course, India is improbable to cooperate," she said.

Officials moving for Trudeau and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly did not respond to requests for remark astir what steps Ottawa mightiness instrumentality next.

India is the apical root for impermanent overseas workers and planetary students coming to Canada, but a backlog of applications has built since Trudeau's allegations past year.

Canada lone has 4 migration officials near successful India, down from 27 successful October 2023. This affects Canada's quality to process visas on-site, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said.

"I person told my colleagues successful Parliament that this could get worse earlier it gets better, and they request to brace for it," helium said successful an interrogation past Friday.

That could mean less radical traveling betwixt the countries for morganatic reasons, helium said.

Trade relations

India is Canada's 10th largest trading spouse and New Delhi has made wide it does not privation flows to beryllium hit. Nadjibulla's instauration carried retired a survey showing Trudeau's connection successful October 2023 had small oregon nary effect connected bilateral trade.

"Whether that would beryllium the lawsuit present I deliberation it's a bigger question mark, due to the fact that the disruption is connected a bigger scale, and we are inactive not, I don't believe, astatine the bottommost of this," she said by phone.

Canada is the biggest exporter of pulses, specified arsenic lentils, to India. Pulse Canada President Greg Cherewyk, asked astir the imaginable interaction of the diplomatic dispute, cited the spot of the relationship.

"In a clip of stubborn nutrient terms ostentation and beardown request for pulse crops, we are assured that affordability and availability volition proceed to thrust decision-making astatine a authorities level," helium said successful a statement.

"We person thankfully not seen the governmental tensions impact trade," said Michael Harvey, enforcement manager of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance. "India and Canada person large imaginable successful their trading narration and CAFTA hopes we tin enactment backmost to affirmative commercialized discussions."