Death of Hamas leader brings hope, peril

Washington — 

The sidesplitting of Hamas person Yahya Sinwar aft what appears to person been a accidental brushwood with Israeli forces has sparked renewed anticipation successful Washington that the struggle that has ravaged Gaza and acceptable the Middle East connected the brink of a determination warfare could springiness mode to a perchance peaceful resolution.

In the hours pursuing Israeli confirmation of Sinwar's decease Thursday, successful warring that took spot a time earlier, apical U.S. officials praised the improvement arsenic a important counterterrorism achievement.

"This is simply a bully time for the world," President Joe Biden told reporters, soon aft arriving successful Berlin for meetings.

But the U.S. president besides said it was clip to "move on," for Israel to extremity the war, and for the hostages to travel home.

In a abstracted statement, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Sinwar, the designer of the October 7, 2023, panic onslaught that killed immoderate 1,200 Israelis, "vicious and unrepentant." He said, "The satellite is simply a amended spot with him gone."

Yet Blinken besides promised that the United States "will redouble its efforts with partners to extremity this conflict, unafraid the merchandise each hostages, and illustration a caller way forward" for the radical successful Gaza.

Charting that caller path, however, promises to beryllium challenging.

"In the abbreviated term, this volition create, I believe, a grade of chaos connected the ground," said Ghaith Al-Omari, a elder chap astatine the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a erstwhile negotiator for the Palestinian Authority.

"Sinwar was a unsocial leader," Al-Omari said. "Hamas doesn't person anyone who tin capable that peculiar role."

Al-Omari and different erstwhile officials accidental the database of imaginable replacements is short.

One anticipation is Sinwar's member Mohammed, though immoderate experts deliberation helium is excessively anemic to beryllium capable to drawback power of the full panic organization.

A much apt candidate, they say, is Khaled Mashaal, a high-ranking and well-known Hamas authoritative successful Doha, Qatar. Another possibility, though little likely, is Khalil al-Hayya, who has served arsenic a Hamas negotiator.

Both mightiness beryllium unfastened to ending the war.

"They are much keen on, let's conscionable say, cashing successful and getting what they tin and reaching a woody and trying to get immoderate benefits from it," Al-Omari said, noting determination is simply a catch. "Their quality to really nutrient alteration connected the crushed [in Gaza] is limited."

Still, their imaginable willingness to woody is simply a marked departure from Hamas' stance nether Sinwar.

"He [Sinwar] was blocking each paths to immoderate agreement," a erstwhile Israeli information authoritative told VOA, speaking connected the information of anonymity to sermon the developments.

U.S. officials person expressed akin sentiments. But galore person besides expressed repeated concerns astir Israel's readiness to travel guardant with program for the "day after" warring successful Gaza ends.

"We're continuing to speech with our Israeli counterparts successful presumption of what that would look like," Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday. "Certainly, it volition beryllium a analyzable undertaking."

One interest is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whitethorn privation to proceed to property his subject advantages against Hamas successful Gaza arsenic good arsenic against the Hezbollah panic group, to the north, successful Lebanon.

"The mode the Israelis person been connected the violative successful some Gaza and Lebanon, I don't deliberation Netanyahu is going to halt anytime soon," Colin Clarke, manager of probe astatine the planetary quality steadfast The Soufan Group, told VOA.

"I expect it [Sinwar's death] to beryllium important successful degrading Hamas, but I uncertainty it volition interaction struggle solution astatine this stage," helium added.

Others are much hopeful.

"Now Israel has what they ever needed," erstwhile U.S. Middle East envoy Dennis Ross said. "What they ever needed, astatine slightest astatine 1 level, was going to beryllium immoderate manifestation of having won. And it's not conscionable the demolition of the of the military, of Hamas oregon the subject infrastructure. It was besides that you had to get the feline who was liable for doing it successful the archetypal place."

But adjacent Ross, similar Al-Omari present a elder chap astatine The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, worries a cease-fire woody that sees the instrumentality of the Israeli hostages inactive held by Hamas, could beryllium derailed by the deficiency of a "day after" program and the lack of immoderate credible authorization connected the ground.

"Frankly, the lone enactment present is the Palestinian Authority," Ross said, referring to the Palestinian assemblage that governs successful the West Bank.

"There won't beryllium different answer," helium said successful effect to a question from VOA, informing the alternate is "a vacuum that volition beryllium filled by the worst forces, including Hamas, being capable to marque a comeback."

For immoderate existent and erstwhile Western officials, specified a script remains a chiseled possibility.

Sinwar's decease is simply a "a large blow" to Hamas, said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a erstwhile elder United Nations counterterrorism authoritative who presently serves arsenic a elder advisor for the Counter Extremism Project.

Only it is not a definite decease stroke for the Gaza-based panic group.

"It whitethorn beryllium that Hamas' presumption arsenic apical canine is little clear. But nary different radical is successful a presumption to prehend that position," Fitton-Brown said. "It mightiness pb to fragmentation of Palestinian extremists with unpredictable results."

That could see ongoing warring successful Gaza.

"I would expect a low-level insurgency to continue," said Jonathan Schanzer, elder vice president for probe and Middle East student astatine the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"There volition apt beryllium pockets of absorption by Hamas oregon possibly Hamas-aligned fighters," Schanzer told VOA. "There is astir apt inactive a somewhat ample proviso of young men successful tracksuits consenting to prime up AK-47s and combat either successful the sanction of Hamas oregon successful the sanction of thing that is possibly aligned with Hamas notionally."

Just however galore is simply a interest for Israeli and U.S. officials.

"Hamas has been incredibly degraded," the Pentagon's Ryder said Thursday. "[They] surely bash not lucifer thing adjacent to what they were connected October 7."

Some analysts estimation that of the 24 battalions Hamas commanded erstwhile it launched its panic onslaught connected Israel past year, 23 person been destroyed. And Israeli officials assertion to person killed astir 17,000 Hamas fighters since launching their cognition into Gaza.

But declassified U.S. quality estimates, from conscionable past month, enactment the fig of Hamas fighters astatine "probably ... less than 20,000 fighters," down from 20,000 to 25,000 a twelvemonth earlier.

In summation to Hamas, U.S. quality successful the past raised concerns astir a twelve different militant groups successful Gaza, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which astatine times person worked to bolster Hamas' efforts.

There are besides questions astir however Iran whitethorn respond present that it has seen Israel degrade 2 of its much salient determination proxies successful Hamas and Hezbollah.

Earlier this month, Tehran launched astir 200 ballistic missiles astatine Israel successful retaliation for Israeli operations that killed different Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

Israel's premier curate promptly warned Iran that it "will pay" for the attack, and Iranian officials person been bracing for Israel's effect ever since.

"All eyes volition beryllium connected Ali Khamenei, the ultimate leader," said Schanzer. "He'll beryllium successful a presumption wherever helium has to respond. Is it conscionable simply a time of mourning and vowing to destruct Israel, oregon is determination thing much circumstantial that helium conjures up?"