Delhi exit polls later today: What the surveys predicted in 2015, 2020

2013

An mean of 4 exit polls successful 2013 enactment the BJP successful a commanding presumption with 35 seats, conscionable shy of the 36-seat bulk people portion predicting that the AAP and the Congress would each decorativeness with 17 seats. Ultimately, the BJP managed 32 seats, the AAP 28, and the Congress conscionable eight.

The exit polls importantly underestimated the AAP’s potential, with the recently formed enactment successfully gathering connected the India Against Corruption movement. With extracurricular enactment from the Congress, the AAP formed a short-lived authorities that lasted 48 days, earlier Kejriwal’s resignation implicit the Assembly’s nonaccomplishment to walk the Jan Lokpal Bill was followed by a play nether President’s Rule.

2013 exit polls

That year, 2 of the analysed exit polls gave the BJP a bulk – Headlines Today-ORG enactment the BJP astatine 41 seats and ABP-Neilsen astatine 37. All 4 polls overestimated the Congress’s performance, predicting seats successful the treble digits. The canvass that arrived astatine the astir close decision was Today’s Chanakya, which gave AAP 31 seats, the BJP 29, and the Congress 10.

On average, the exit polls were abbreviated by 11 seats for the AAP, and gave 3 and 9 further seats to the BJP and Congress, respectively.

2015

This time, the six exit polls analysed estimated an outright bulk for the AAP, but nary was capable to foretell the grade of its victory. The mean of these six polls enactment the Arvind Kejriwal-led enactment astatine 45 seats, with the BJP astatine 24 and the Congress trailing astatine one. In the end, the AAP won 67 seats, leaving conscionable 3 for the BJP.

2015 exit polls

No exit poll successful 2015 saw the AAP clearing the 60-seat mark, and conscionable 1 predicted the enactment would triumph much than 50 seats. The Axis My India survey, which estimated 53 seats for the AAP, came closest to the existent outcome. The lowest estimation for the AAP was 39 seats by India TV-CVoter.

For the BJP, however, the exit polls were expecting a overmuch amended performance, but not capable to situation the AAP. All but 1 canvass had enactment the BJP supra 20 seats – Axis My India predicted it would triumph 17 seats, the lowest estimate.

Two agencies, Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India, correctly predicted the Congress would neglect to triumph a azygous seat. But the different polls were besides alternatively pessimistic – astatine 4 seats, India Today-Cicero gave the Congress its highest tally.

The mean of the six polls was disconnected the people for the AAP by 22 seats, portion predicting the BJP would triumph 21 much seats than it managed.

2020

An mean of 8 exit polls successful 2020 had erstwhile again predicted a resounding AAP triumph with 54 seats, and placed the BJP astatine 15 seats and the Congress astatine adjacent to none. The accuracy of the polls considerably improved from 5 years earlier arsenic the AAP ended with 62 seats and the BJP eight.

2020 exit polls

The India Today-Axis My India canvass was closest to the existent result. It had fixed the AAP a scope of 59 to 68 seats and the BJP 2 to 11 seats. Once again, each canvass correctly predicted the AAP would triumph an outright majority. Three polls — India Today-Axis My India, ABP News-CVoter, and Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat — were the lone ones to foretell that the AAP could again wide the 60-seat mark.

At 44 seats, the India TV-Ipsos Times Now-Ipsos polls gave the lowest estimates; these pollsters were besides among the 3 agencies to foretell the BJP could triumph much than 20 seats.

With a scope of zero to 4 seats, the highest estimation for the Congress was from ABP News-CVoter. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat and Patriotic Voter predicted a maximum of 1 seat, and the remaining 5 polls correctly predicted the enactment would neglect to triumph immoderate seats.

The mean of these 8 polls underestimated the AAP’s show by 8 seats and overestimated the BJP’s show by 7 seats.