Don't count on recounts to flip US elections this fall — they rarely do

washington — 

With the American electorate truthful evenly divided, determination volition beryllium elections successful November adjacent capable that officials volition person to recount the votes. Just don't expect those recounts to alteration the winner. They seldom do, adjacent erstwhile the margins are tiny.

"The (original) number is beauteous close due to the fact that the machines enactment — they enactment precise well," said Tammy Patrick, a erstwhile predetermination authoritative successful Arizona who is present with the National Association of Election Officials. "We person recounts and we person audits to marque definite we got it right."

There person been 36 recounts successful statewide wide elections since America's astir celebrated recount successful 2000. That year, Republican George W. Bush maintained his pb implicit Democrat Al Gore successful Florida — and won the presidency — aft a recount was stopped by the Supreme Court.

Since then, lone 3 of those statewide recounts resulted successful caller winners, and each 3 were decided by hundreds of votes, not thousands. That's according to an Associated Press reappraisal of statewide recounts utilizing information from the AP ballot count, authorities predetermination offices and probe by FairVote, a nonpartisan enactment that researches elections and advocates for changes successful the mode they are conducted.

Most states let recounts erstwhile the results are wrong a definite margin; the astir communal fig is 0.5 percent point. But determination is nary precedent for a recount changing the victor successful a contention decided by aggregate thousands of votes, astatine slightest not since Congress made sweeping changes to U.S. predetermination instrumentality successful 2002.

Minnesota race

The astir caller statewide contention overturned by a recount was successful 2008 successful Minnesota. Republican Senator Norm Coleman led Democrat Al Franken by 215 votes successful the archetypal count, retired of much than 2.9 cardinal ballots cast. After a manus recount, Franken won by 225 votes, a displacement of 0.02 percent point.

Among the 36 statewide recounts since 2000, the mean alteration successful the winning margin, whether it grew oregon shrank, was 0.03 percent point. The biggest displacement was 0.11 percent constituent successful a comparatively debased turnout contention for Vermont auditor successful 2006. In that race, incumbent Republican Randy Brock led Democrat Thomas Salmon by 137 votes aft the archetypal count. A recount flipped the contention and Salmon won by 102 votes.

Recounts aren't constricted to wide elections. They hap successful primaries, too.

Earlier this year, the Washington authorities superior for commissioner of nationalist lands went to a recount aft the archetypal tally had Democrat Dave Upthegrove starring Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson by 51 votes, retired of much than 1.9 cardinal votes counted, arsenic they vied for 2nd place.

After the recount, Upthegrove's pb shrank by conscionable 2 votes. In Washington's superior system, the apical 2 candidates beforehand to the wide election, careless of their governmental party.

There are adjacent much recounts successful downballot races that are sometimes decided by a fistful of votes. But adjacent successful these lower-turnout elections, recounts seldom alteration the winners.

"Recounts are shifting a precise tiny fig of votes," said Deb Otis, manager of probe and argumentation astatine FairVote. "We're going to spot recounts successful 2024 that are not going to alteration the outcome."

Different laws

States person a wide assortment of laws connected erstwhile and however recounts are conducted. Some states let candidates to petition recounts but necessitate that they wage for them — unless the victor changes.

Alaska, Montana, South Dakota and Texas mandate recounts lone if determination is an nonstop tie, though candidates successful those states tin petition a recount. South Carolina has automatic recounts if the borderline betwixt the apical 2 candidates is 1% oregon little of the full votes formed successful the race.

The AP whitethorn state a victor successful a contention that is eligible for a recount if the AP determines the pb is excessively ample for a recount oregon ineligible situation to alteration the outcome.

In Washington's nationalist lands primary, which was yet decided by 49 votes, the AP waited until aft the recount to state the victor due to the fact that the borderline was truthful close. But successful cases wherever the fig of votes separating the apical candidates is larger – for example, successful a statewide contention wherever the candidates are separated by thousands oregon tens of thousands of votes – the AP whitethorn find that it's not imaginable for a recount to reverse the outcome.

Statewide recounts astir ever alteration the results by a fewer votes.

Patrick said that's usually due to the fact that of quality mistake – either by an predetermination idiosyncratic oregon by voters. For example, insubstantial ballots are often rejected due to the fact that voters didn't capable them retired correctly, but they mightiness aboriginal get added to the number aft a review.

'Very absorbing things'

Paper ballots usually necessitate voters to capable successful small bubbles adjacent to their chosen candidate, conscionable similar students taking standardized tests. Tabulation machines number the votes by looking for a people connected a precise circumstantial country of the ballot, Patrick said. If voters bespeak their penchant successful immoderate different way, similar circling their chosen candidate, the machines won't number the vote.

In immoderate states, bipartisan panels reappraisal rejected ballots to spot if they tin find the intent of the voter. Some states bash these reviews whether determination is simply a recount oregon not. Other states bash them lone if determination is simply a recount. Still others ne'er bash these reviews and the ballots are simply rejected.

Patrick said she's seen ballots marked galore antithetic ways that weren't picked up by the tabulation machines, similar voters utilizing crayons oregon marking their choices with a highlighter.

In the Minnesota recount, a elector filed successful the dot for Franken but besides wrote "Lizard People" successful the container for write-in votes. The ballot was rejected.

"Voters bash a batch of precise absorbing things with their ballots," Patrick said.