Election 2024 poll tracker: Interactive models predict results of key battleground states for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Ahead of the 2024  Presidential election, spot however Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are truly faring among voters with DailyMail.com's superb canvass tracker.

Readers tin presumption who is winning the head-to-head contention arsenic good arsenic the concern successful the battleground states that volition yet determine who gets into the White House.

All of the information utilized successful our investigation comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com's pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

NATIONAL VOTING INTENTION

DailyMail.com collates nationalist polling information from FiveThirtyEight, which collates dozens of voting surveys carried retired each week crossed the US. We lone see head-to-head polls betwixt Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, meaning different candidates specified arsenic Cornel West and Jill Stein are excluded. This provides a wide snapshot of the nationalist voting intention, oregon the fashionable vote. Because of the mode US elections work, the person of this metric won’t needfully go President.

Individual surveys are represented by dots connected the chart. Rolling play averages – covering Monday to Sunday – are represented by lines. For the purposes of our graph, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden for the week opening July 22.

NATIONAL PROBABILITY OF WINNING

Our probability graph differs to the voting volition due to the fact that it takes into relationship galore factors that could skew the results connected the night.

JL Partners, a reputable pollster whose founders were progressive successful moving probe for the UK Conservative Government, carries retired modelling to measure who is apt to triumph the contention successful each authorities based connected existent polling. This, arsenic good arsenic humanities voting data, economical indicators and support ratings, is combined by information scientists who past simulate the people of the predetermination thousands of times to cipher the probability of either Trump oregon Harris becoming President connected November 5.

STATE-BY-STATE PREDICTED WINNERS

Using the aforesaid methodology arsenic with the nationalist probability, DailyMail.com visualises JL Partners’ predicted results connected a state-by-state basis. This shows the areas that are considered Republican oregon Democrat strongholds, arsenic good arsenic the states that could plaything either mode connected the night.

BATTLEGROUND STATES PROBABILITY OF WINNING

This graph shows the probability exemplary but for 7 battleground states that volition determine this year’s result. Between Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), they person 93 Electoral College votes.