Ex-UK foreign chief predicts quick end to Russia-Ukraine war if Trump wins

London, United Kingdom – David Owen often describes the warfare successful Ukraine arsenic Russia’s “second invasion”, arsenic a changeless reminder of the 2014 Crimean conflict.

A erstwhile British overseas caput successful the precocious 1970s, an MP for 26 years nether Labour, an ex-member of the House of Lords and a European Union bid negotiator successful the erstwhile Yugoslavia, Owen updated his latest publication – Riddle, Mystery, and Enigma: Two Hundred Years of British-Russian Relations, published October 2021 – aft Russia’s full-fledged penetration of Ukraine successful 2022.

Al Jazeera spoke to Owen, 86, astir Russia and Ukraine, Moscow’s terminal narration with the UK and wherefore helium thinks the United States statesmanlike predetermination successful November volition find what comes next.

Al Jazeera: After Russia invaded Ukraine successful 2022, you signed a missive published successful the Financial Times that called for a caller NATO pact with Russia that “engenders nary organization hostility”. Almost 1,000 days into the war, NATO is ever person to Russia and President Vladimir Putin is warning of nonstop struggle with the subject alliance. Do you basal by the missive now?

David Owen: Well, I deliberation relations person got earnestly worse, and I regret that.

I don’t myself deliberation it volition beryllium imaginable to determination backmost into a productive benignant of dialog that we had successful the [former Russian President Boris] Yeltsin years until the contented of the Ukraine warfare is over. Now, that whitethorn beryllium connected the horizon. I deliberation it does beryllium a batch connected who wins the statesmanlike predetermination successful the United States. But if [Republican campaigner and erstwhile US President Donald] Trump was to travel back, there’s precise small uncertainty helium would, arsenic helium has often said, effort to settee the Ukraine warfare and amended relations, idiosyncratic relations with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.

Al Jazeera: Ukraine wants to usage Western-made long-range missiles to strike heavy wrong Russia. Should the US assistance Ukraine’s wish?

Owen: We are successful the hands of [US] President [Joe] Biden. He is inactive successful complaint of American argumentation and has beardown feelings connected it. It is wide that Biden is highly reluctant successful the contiguous circumstances of NATO’s engagement with Ukraine to summation the tension.

Al Jazeera: At what constituent was it wide to you that UK-Russia relations had reached the lowest level since the Cold War?

Owen: I deliberation it was the 2nd penetration of Ukraine. After the archetypal penetration [in 2014], it was tenable to anticipation that Russia would spot that this was not acceptable. Perhaps we didn’t nonstop a steadfast capable message. The negotiations were mostly conducted betwixt the then-German Chancellor [Angela] Merkel and the French. The British were not chiefly engaged successful that dialogue.

Maybe Putin underestimated however the NATO countries would respond to an penetration of Ukraine.

Al Jazeera: On the flip broadside of that, erstwhile were relations beardown and advantageous for some nations? In your book, you’ve written astir the post-Soviet Yeltsin era…

Owen: It was precise affirmative successful the Yeltsin era. Things were dramatically transformed. It was Yeltsin who decided that it was amended to person a smaller Russia and effort and marque it beardown economically and much liberal. And helium encouraged Ukraine and Belarus to abstracted out.

None of america truly thought that Russia would move, arsenic I would telephone it, backwards, distant from the Yeltsin epoch arsenic rapidly arsenic it did. I don’t deliberation we did anyplace adjacent capable financially and successful different ways to assistance Russia during the Yeltsin period.

I was successful concern successful Russia. I was president of Yukos International, a ample lipid company.

[Editor’s note: Owen has since ended concern ties with Russia.]

We were trying precise hard but rather a batch of escaped wealth came successful from fiscal markets successful Europe and America, which was precise short-term wealth that was not determination to creaseless the modulation from communist economics to Western escaped markets. We’re not wholly escaped from criticism.

We were unimaginative, ungenerous and, really, sent immoderate beauteous atrocious fiscal opportunists into Russia who didn’t person the champion interests of Russia astatine heart, weren’t the benignant of radical who could person helped to make a Russian system dilatory and steadily, which would find it overmuch easier to unrecorded with the Western economies of Europe and America.

Al Jazeera: Since 2022, pro-Kremlin figures person threatened Britain, saying Russian atomic warheads could descend “the tiny island”. Could Russia motorboat an onslaught connected the UK?

Owen: No warfare that Russia could embark connected against Britain would beryllium purely a British-Russian war. It would impact NATO. It would impact the United States close from the clip the archetypal rocket was sent towards Britain and would impact each European NATO countries.

It’s an illusion if they deliberation they tin person this abstracted conflict with us. I’m amazed that radical are sensible, arsenic [Russia’s] erstwhile President [Dmitry] Medvedev believes that helium tin conscionable waft into tactical atomic weapons discourse.

We request to retrieve erstwhile Putin went to China and talked to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping astir his intentions implicit Ukraine.

Xi said China would not enactment the usage of atomic weapons successful reclaiming Ukraine. That presumption has not changed and I deliberation it’s highly important that it does not change.

Al Jazeera: Will the UK’s caller Labour person Keir Starmer beryllium arsenic beardown of an state to Ukraine arsenic the ex-Conservative premier Boris Johnson?

Owen: They’re precise antithetic personalities. Boris Johnson is much of a gut politician. When Ukraine was attacked, helium responded rapidly and courageously. But I don’t deliberation that there’s immoderate tangible difference. A quality of style, of course.

Al Jazeera: In caller months, several bid plans person been touted, including Ukraine’s. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his “victory plan” includes NATO membership. Is that a realistic position?

Owen: Ukraine is not a subordinate of NATO and that is an contented for the future. I fishy it volition beryllium hotly contested by Russia. We shouldn’t enactment ourselves into a concern of making that a sine qua non.

NATO rank has been not terribly good handled connected the borders of Russia. We ne'er faced up to however hard that was for Russia itself.

We made immoderate mistakes successful that area. I don’t deliberation we’ll marque them [again], the aforesaid ones.

It mightiness beryllium successful Russia’s involvement to fto Ukraine person the rank of NATO, arsenic agelong arsenic they got the borders successful negotiation. There’s a trade-off determination which mightiness travel up successful the negotiations.

I’m successful favour of Ukraine handling negotiations and not NATO countries. And I deliberation we are precise adjacent to that now. It’s going to beryllium resolved to a large grade by the effect of the American statesmanlike election.

If Trump was to win, determination is nary uncertainty that it would beryllium a reasonably speedy dialog betwixt Ukraine and Russia, and it would travel up with a solution. Even if Trump doesn’t win, I deliberation it’s rather imaginable that President Kamala [Harris] would beryllium unfastened to a negotiation. But again, I don’t deliberation she would privation to enactment America straight successful line, whereas Trump said helium intelligibly would.

Al Jazeera: You mentioned mistakes made by Western powers and suggested NATO has not ever considered Russia successful its calculations. Can you grow connected that?

Owen: In the euphoria of the Berlin Wall falling down [in 1989], immoderate radical forgot that we did really person immoderate rather omniscient politicians around, 1 of which was [George HW] Bush, [US] President Bush.

He was conscious of the information that pushing NATO close up against the bound of Russia was to beryllium avoided, if possible. Even [ex-US President Bill] Clinton was alert of this. British people, too.

Former USSR President Mikhail] Gorbachev abruptly was taken implicit by Yeltsin and it each moved a small excessively accelerated astatine that stage. And immoderate of the caution of however rapidly NATO could enlarge got swept away. There was an insensitivity astir the mode Russia has seen itself implicit the centuries.

Al Jazeera: Having studied Putin much intimately successful the past mates of years, what tin we expect of him successful immoderate negotiations to extremity the war?

Owen: President Putin is to beryllium judged connected however helium handles Russia. This antheral faced a rebellion of Russian troops led by [Wagner Group main Yevgeny Prigozhin]. They were connected the march towards Moscow, a breakaway movement. He handled that occurrence extraordinarily skilfully. He didn’t bash anything. He waited… helium got precisely what helium wanted. It took him astir apt 7 oregon 8 months. [Editor’s note: Prigozhin died successful a level clang 2 months aft the failed coup attempt].

This [Putin] is simply a cautious man. I truthful deliberation we should amusement respect for him.

He is person of Russia and it’s not nether situation astatine the moment. He’s rather apt to beryllium determination for different five, 10, 15 years, truthful we should dainty him with respect successful negotiations and I judge we tin reconstruct those relations. We’ve made immoderate mistakes. He’s made mistakes, but I don’t judge successful this endless war.

They’re going to extremity up with immoderate territory, which was antecedently Ukraine.

[Russia has hopefully] learned amended ways of dealing with Ukraine and I deliberation they volition beryllium capable to negociate a palmy bound betwixt them, and past proceed to commercialized with them.

We astir get distant from this content that the boundaries of the empires of the past person an absolutism astir them, that they are crying retired for restoration. The past of the satellite is that boundaries bash change. Often difficult, sometimes inflammatory, and we person to beryllium precise careful, much cautious than we were successful the past, astir not pushing a NATO bound excessively far.

Finland and Sweden are engaged with NATO. These person not been steps that they took [easily] – they were provoked.

Al Jazeera: How bash you ideate a satellite aft the Russia-Ukraine warfare ends? How tin Britain and Russia repair their relationship?

Owen: Start visiting each other’s countries. I’m 86 now, but I would similar to judge that earlier I die, I could spell backmost to [Russia] and speech to aged friends and critics and prosecute with them.

The sooner the better. I don’t judge successful mucking astir erstwhile you determine to amended relations and get backmost into person-to-person relationships.