Exit polls next, how they got it wrong in Maharashtra in 2019

In Maharashtra, an mean of 7 exit polls enactment the BJP-led NDA’s tally astatine 207, good wide of the 145-seat bulk people successful the Assembly, and the Congress-NCP alliance’s tally astatine 65, with the remaining 16 seats predicted to spell to Independents and different parties.

On average, these polls overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena’s combined show by 46 seats, portion underestimating the Congress-NCP’s result by 33 seats.

The NDA ended up with 161 seats, but was incapable to signifier a authorities aft the confederation could not scope a power-sharing agreement. The Shiv Sena past joined forces with the Congress and NCP, whose combined tally was 98, to signifier the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.

While the News18-IPSOS canvass was the astir disconnected the people – predicting 243 seats for the NDA and conscionable 41 for the Congress-NCP harvester – the canvass conducted by India Today-Axis My India was the closest to the results, predicting 166 seats arsenic the little bound estimation for the BJP-Shiv Sena and 90 seats arsenic the precocious bound for the Congress-NCP.

In Jharkhand, pollsters fared importantly amended successful 2019. An mean of 3 polls predicted the JMM-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal confederation would triumph 41 of the state’s 81 seats, putting the harvester close astatine the bulk mark. The mean of the polls enactment the tally of the BJP, contesting unsocial this time, astatine 29, followed by now-ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP) astatine 4 and the erstwhile Babula Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), which merged with the BJP successful 2020, astatine three. The 4 remaining seats were predicted to spell to Independents and different parties.

The JMM-led confederation ended up somewhat outperforming the exit polls with wins successful 47 seats, portion the BJP won 25, the AJSUP two, and the JVM three. Without alliances with the AJSUP and JVM, the BJP fell good abbreviated of a bulk and was ousted by the Hemant Soren-led coalition.

While the India Today-Axis My India canvass was the closest to predicting the BJP’s tally with its little bound estimation of 22 seats, its precocious bound estimation of 50 was the closest to the JMM-led alliance’s tally, arsenic was the Times Now canvass with its estimation of 44. All 3 polls were spot connected with their JVM projection, though they somewhat overestimated the AJSUP’s tally. On average, these polls were disconnected by 4 seats for the BJP and six seats for the JMM-led alliance.