Experts: Future of US-South Korea defense cost-sharing deal remains uncertain

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U.S. nationalist information experts accidental it is unclear whether a caller cost-sharing statement with South Korea, hailed by the State Department arsenic “a important accomplishment,” volition past if erstwhile President Donald Trump returns to the White House adjacent year.

Concluded past week and effectual from 2026, the five-year Special Measures Agreement, oregon SMA, requires South Korea to rise its publication to the outgo of stationing of U.S. troops successful the state by 8.3% to $1.47 cardinal successful the archetypal year.

The 2 allies reached the statement earlier than expected, a determination wide seen arsenic cardinal for Seoul and Washington to clinch earlier the U.S. statesmanlike predetermination successful November, successful which Trump is the Republican Party candidate.

The U.S. State Department hailed the statement arsenic a “a important accomplishment for some sides” successful a connection released connected October 4.

But Trump, some successful bureau and arsenic a candidate, has consistently demanded that South Korea lend importantly much to the outgo of supporting U.S. forces successful Korea. Most precocious successful April, Trump told Time magazine that “I privation South Korea to dainty america properly,” adding that Seoul is “paying virtually thing for” the U.S. troops stationed successful South Korea.

‘Trump factor’

John Bolton, a erstwhile White House nationalist information advisor during the Trump administration, told VOA Korean by telephone connected Friday that “it’s precise apt that Trump would inquire to renegotiate it.”

“I cognize that the medication [of President Joe Biden] present tried to unreserved the coming-to-an-agreement connected it, truthful that Trump couldn’t meddle with it, but that won’t dilatory him down astatine all,” said Bolton, who besides served arsenic the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations successful 2005-06.

“He ne'er thinks his predecessors marque bully capable deals, and successful part, it’s not conscionable the question of economics, but helium doesn’t recognize corporate defence alliances,” Bolton said.

“He thinks that not conscionable with respect to the Republic of Korea, but besides with NATO oregon Japan oregon immoderate that we’re defending, these countries don’t wage america capable money.” The Republic of Korea is South Korea’s ceremonial name.

Bruce Klingner, the elder probe chap for Northeast Asia astatine the Heritage Foundation, pointed retired the pact is “an enforcement agreement,” which makes it easier for Trump to undo since it does not necessitate support from Congress.

“We truly don’t cognize whether helium would conscionable spot it arsenic a done deal, oregon if helium volition question to renegotiate it upward, wherever South Korea would wage overmuch more,” Klingner said.

“If you instrumentality a measurement back, it’s successful our strategical involvement to person allies, it’s successful our strategical involvement to person our forces stationed overseas, due to the fact that actually, they’re little costly to the United States erstwhile they’re stationed overseas than erstwhile they’re stationed domestically.”

Robert Rapson, who served arsenic complaint d'affaires and lawman main of ngo astatine the U.S. Embassy successful Seoul from 2018 to 2021, told VOA Korean past week that helium was acrophobic that the statement wouldn't walk muster with a Trump medication should the erstwhile president triumph a 2nd word successful November.

“Given his demands and expectations of U.S. allies with respect to information load sharing, my beardown fearfulness is that helium volition question to renegotiate today’s statement with a overmuch higher fig successful mind,” said Rapson, who was straight progressive successful the 2 sets of SMA negotiations successful 2013-14 and successful 2019-21.

Evans Revere, who served arsenic acting U.S. adjunct caput of authorities for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told VOA Korean connected Thursday via email that helium suspected determination was “considerable dissatisfaction with the precocious concluded SMA statement successful the Trump camp,” knowing however powerfully the erstwhile president feels astir the burden-sharing issue.

Revere said helium could not regularisation retired the anticipation that Trump volition travel up with “a request to reopen talks connected the SMA issue, and toward that end, helium mightiness marque large caller demands of Seoul” if helium takes bureau again.

'It's successful our interest'

Other erstwhile authorities officials, similar Klingner, judge it is excessively aboriginal to foretell whether Trump volition effort to revise the cost-sharing statement betwixt the U.S. and South Korea.

Richard Armitage, who served arsenic lawman caput of authorities during the George W. Bush administration, told VOA Korean connected Wednesday connected the phone, “He mightiness try, but let’s not get fearful astir this excessively soon.”

“If helium comes to the White House, helium volition person a caput of state, defense, nationalist information adviser, et cetera, who whitethorn person somewhat antithetic views and tin assistance mean Mr. Trump.”

“Seoul and Washington recognize that Trump is precise transactional,” Armitage said. “But American soldiers are not Hessians. We’re not for rent. We’re successful Korea due to the fact that it’s successful our interest.”

VOA Korean contacted the Trump run this week and asked what Trump’s stance was connected the recently reached agreement, but did not person a reply by the clip this nonfiction was published.

Joeun Lee contributed to this report, which originated successful VOA’s Korean Service.