Four years after coup, Myanmar regime prepares for ‘violent, messy’ polls

Myanmar’s 2024 census was astir surely the astir contentious – and deadly – ever conducted.

Enumerators and their heavy equipped guards from Myanmar’s subject were taxable to repeated attacks from absorption groups, arsenic they stumbled done a failed effort to papers the country’s colonisation betwixt October and December past year.

One incidental successful aboriginal October saw 7 soldiers providing information for census takers successful Mandalay Region killed with an explosive device. Days later, 3 much soldiers were killed erstwhile absorption forces deed their conveyance with a shoulder-launched rocket successful Kayin State successful the country’s east.

“The census was an utter, abject failure,” Richard Horsey, Myanmar advisor to the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.

“But the authorities has declared it a marvellous success.”

What is mostly a mundane administrative workout successful colonisation counting successful astir parts of the world, that Myanmar’s census was met with specified convulsive absorption speaks to its value successful the country’s antiauthoritarian trajectory.

Publishing preliminary results successful January, Myanmar’s Ministry of Immigration and Population said the census represents the subject government’s “commitment to nationalist reconciliation”.

But it besides represents the last measurement earlier the subject attempts to clasp a nationalist predetermination aboriginal this twelvemonth – the archetypal since overthrowing Myanmar’s democratically elected authorities successful a coup 4 years agone and igniting a civilian war.

While the subject has painted a imaginable ballot arsenic a instrumentality to antiauthoritarian norms, for Myanmar’s absorption forces, elections are simply an effort to legitimise the illegitimate authorities that seized powerfulness successful February 2021.

The “election volition beryllium a sham, it volition conscionable beryllium for show”, said Zaw Kyaw, a spokesperson for the statesmanlike bureau astatine the National Unity Government (NUG), an exiled medication that includes lawmakers ousted by the military.

“The subject believes that [holding an election] volition beryllium an exit strategy, and they tin get immoderate legitimacy successful the eyes of immoderate countries by hosting a sham election,” helium told Al Jazeera.

“But this predetermination volition not pb to stability. It volition pb to much instability and much violence.”

‘Absolutely nary credible data’

In November 2020, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi led her National League for Democracy (NLD) enactment to a landslide triumph successful Myanmar’s wide election, winning 82 percent of seats contested successful the country’s nationalist and determination parliaments.

Three months later, successful the aboriginal hours of February 1, the subject would overthrow Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, arresting her and different NLD figures. Justifying the coup, the subject alleged monolithic NLD elector fraud successful the polls and declared the results void, without providing immoderate grounds of wrongdoing. The coup triggered nationwide pro-democracy protests, morphing into an equipped rebellion that continues to engulf ample swaths of the state today.

The military-installed authorities – led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing arsenic its premier minister, and much precocious president – has ruled the state since 2021 nether a authorities of exigency that it has renewed respective times arsenic it battles taste equipped groups and newer pro-democracy fighters crossed the country.

On Friday, the subject extended the authorities of exigency a further six months to July 31.

“There are inactive much tasks to beryllium done to clasp the wide predetermination successfully,” the subject said, announcing the hold of exigency rule.

“Especially for a escaped and just election, stableness and bid is inactive needed,” it said.

Soldiers supply information portion census enumerators cod accusation successful Myanmar’s superior Naypyidaw connected October 1, 2024 [Aung Shine Oo/AP Photo]

Myanmar’s subject said its extremity for the 2024 census was to supply an “accurate” elector database for the adjacent election.

Such a database would forestall the double-counting of ballots and the information of ineligible voters, stamping retired the wide elector fraud it claims corrupted the ballot successful 2020.

“The junta produced perfectly nary credible data,” said Khin Ohmar, laminitis of ideology and quality rights radical Progressive Voice.

“The junta’s sham census lacked sum of large swaths of territory and ample segments of the population, peculiarly successful areas controlled by antiauthoritarian absorption groups oregon revolutionary forces,” she told Al Jazeera.

By its ain account, Myanmar’s Ministry of Immigration and Population said it lone afloat counted populations successful 145 retired of Myanmar’s 330 townships, which appears to bespeak the subject present controls little than fractional the country.

Despite the constricted census data, the ministry said it was “profoundly grateful to the radical of Myanmar for their enthusiastic participation”, describing the census arsenic a “resounding success”.

Khin Ohmar said the world is that members of the nationalist who participated successful the census were forced “into providing idiosyncratic data”, often “at gunpoint”.

“It is wide that the junta volition proceed to usage these convulsive tactics against civilians for its sham election,” she said.

“Any nationalist information is guaranteed to person been coerced by the subject junta,” she added.

Myanmar’s subject authorities did not respond to repeated requests for remark from Al Jazeera.

A situation of an ‘unprecedented scale’

Just however precocious stakes elections are for Myanmar’s severely weakened subject cannot beryllium overstated.

While proclamations of its imminent demise person been predominant since the coup, the erstwhile improbable extremity of a regime-free Myanmar present looks much achievable than ever arsenic the subject has suffered superior setbacks since precocious 2023.

In October that twelvemonth the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a conjugation of taste equipped groups: the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – carried retired a devastating battle connected military-controlled territory successful bluish Shan State.

Setbacks for the authorities continued into 2024 with the subject experiencing its worst territorial and unit losses successful its history. Some 91 towns and 167 subject battalions fell to absorption forces successful a situation of an “unprecedented scale”, according to the United States Institute of Peace.

Plummeting morale has besides seen a “historic surge successful defections” from the army.

An anti-coup protester displays defaced images of subject ruler Senior General Min Aung Hlaing successful Mandalay, Myanmar, connected March 3, 2021 [AP Photo]

In the discourse of diminishing power and progressively robust convulsive resistance, critics accidental holding a nationalist predetermination is simply a fanciful notion.

The regime’s Election Commission Chairman Ko Ko said successful December the polls would beryllium held successful conscionable nether fractional of the country’s 330 townships nationwide. But adjacent this fig appears unduly optimistic.

Myanmar’s pro-democracy absorption groups and anti-military authorities taste equipped organisations progressively spot the subject arsenic determination for the taking.

While the ousted NLD administration, successful authorities betwixt 2015 and 2021, attempted to onslaught a equilibrium betwixt civilian and subject regularisation during the country’s short-lived antiauthoritarian experiment, a instrumentality to the pre-coup presumption quo of subject officials successful authorities is nary longer an option.

“Our main extremity [in 2025] is to destruct the subject dictatorship,” the NUG’s Zaw Kyaw said.

“The subject is weaker than it has ever been successful Myanmar’s history,” helium added.

Despite the inherent information risks, Horsey of the Crisis Group believes nationalist polls look “increasingly likely” this year.

Time is besides ticking for Min Aung Hlaing, Horsey says, arsenic grumbling grows louder from wrong the subject establishment.

“There is unit from wrong the elite to clasp these polls. They don’t privation Min Aung Hlaing ensconced arsenic dictator-for-life. Most don’t relish the imaginable of him sticking astir forever,” Horsey said.

“He’s consolidated each powerfulness successful his ain hands and they privation a portion of the action,” helium said.

The military’s astir influential patron, China, “has besides been pushing precise hard”, Horsey added.

“[China] has nary involvement successful electoral democracy, but they bash not similar [Min Aung Hlaing] and deliberation elections volition beryllium a mode of diluting his power. Perhaps adjacent bringing much reasonable, predictable and amendable radical to the fore,” helium said.

One radical not pushing for elections successful Myanmar is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The 10-member bloc, of which Myanmar is simply a member, has been bitterly divided connected the issue. But ASEAN overseas ministers issued a associated connection successful January telling the regime that holding an predetermination amid an escalating civilian warfare should not beryllium a “priority”.

‘Violent, messy’ and ‘bizarre exercise’

Under Myanmar’s military-drafted 2008 constitution, authorities are mandated to clasp elections wrong six months of the authorities of exigency being lifted – presently acceptable for July 31 – with November the accepted period to bash so.

But for the immense bulk of Myanmar’s embattled population, what period the subject volition clasp the sham polls is irrelevant.

Holding “elections are an implicit anathema to astir people” successful Myanmar, the Crisis Group’s Horsey said.

“It is seen arsenic – and is – an effort [by the military] to hitch distant the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi’s landslide triumph 5 years ago,” helium said.

“That is thing that radical conscionable volition not judge and they volition resist.”

Protesters clasp up a representation of Aung San Suu Kyi and rise three-finger salutes during a objection to people the 3rd day of Myanmar’s subject coup extracurricular the UN bureau successful Bangkok, Thailand, connected February 1, 2024 [File: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters]

Such absorption was already evident successful the attacks disrupting the census, and Horsey believes the elections volition likewise beryllium a “violent, messy, incomplete process”.

“Who successful their close caput would campaign, unfastened enactment offices, and enactment successful the election? There’s going to beryllium ambushes, attacks, assassinations – it’s going to beryllium precise very dangerous,” helium said.

“It’s going to beryllium a bizarre exercise, thing that nary 1 else, I think, would recognise arsenic an election.”

While Horsey said determination was a “consensus” among astir absorption groups that civilians progressive successful the census should not beryllium attacked, helium believes the stakes are higher for the elections and polling stations volition “absolutely beryllium seen arsenic a morganatic target”.

The NUG’s Zaw Kyaw said portion determination volition “definitely” beryllium attacks connected subject targets by the People’s Defence Force (PDF), determination volition beryllium “no attacks connected civilians” participating successful the vote.

But adjacent if unit targeting civilians is limited, punitive enactment of assorted forms volition astir surely beryllium taken against those deemed to beryllium collaborating with the subject regime.

During the census, 9 enumerators, mostly pistillate teachers, were arrested and held for much than a period by PDF fighters successful Myanmar’s confederate Tanintharyi Region.

Bo Sea, a Tanintharyi PDF spokesman, told Al Jazeera that portion the radical recognises immoderate civilians are forced into participating successful predetermination preparations, those deemed consenting collaborators volition look “even much severe” punishment than census participants.

“We see these radical arsenic collaborating with the junta’s predetermination process arsenic accomplices,” helium said. “There volition beryllium civilian teachers and predetermination officials involved. Their information means they are aligning themselves with the junta,” helium added.

Bo Sea is not alone.

Ko Aung Kyaw Hein, a spokesperson for the PDF successful Sagaing Region successful Myanmar’s northwest, said those who “support the violent subject assembly [in carrying retired the elections] volition beryllium prosecuted nether counterterrorism laws”.

Bo Than Mani, main of the Yinmarbin PDF, besides successful Sagaing Region, told Al Jazeera his portion volition “disrupt” the election, but denied it would behaviour convulsive attacks against those participating.

What is clear, astatine slightest to those successful Myanmar’s resistance, is that careless of however the nationalist elections play out, it represents a hopeless enactment by a desperate, sinking subject regime.

“Their morale is astatine the lowest,” Zaw Kyaw said.

“I cannot foretell erstwhile the illness volition happen. It could hap tomorrow. It could hap successful months. It could hap successful a year,” helium said.

“But decidedly the subject volition fall. No 1 tin halt the subject from falling down.”

Additional reporting by Hein Thar.