Haryana assembly election results defy exit poll predictions

The C-Voter-India Today polls gave Congress 50-58 seats and the BJP 20-28 seats successful Haryana, portion the Republic Bharat-Matrize polls enactment the Congress tally astatine 55-62 arsenic against the BJP’s 18-24. In J&K, the C-Voter-India Today survey enactment the NC-Congress harvester astatine 40-48 seats and the BJP astatine 27-32 seats successful the 90-member assembly.

The Axis My India exit poll had projected Congress to unafraid a bulk with 53-65 seats successful the 90-seat Haryana Assembly, portion the BJP was expected to instrumentality conscionable 18-28 seats, and the INLD-BSP alliance, 1-5 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was not expected to triumph immoderate seats.

Talking to the Indian Express, Pradeep Gupta, Chairman & Managing Director of Axis My India, said, “We had predicted a 35% voteshare for BJP, which went up to 40%, and a 43% voteshare for Congress successful Haryana, which turned retired to beryllium 40%. So, successful presumption of voteshare, determination is conscionable a quality of 3-5% betwixt forecast and existent numbers.”

While Republic TV-Matrize had forecast 55-62 seats for Congress, with the BJP trailing astatine 18-24 seats. Dainik Bhaskar’s survey besides predicted 44-54 seats for Congress, and 15-29 for BJP. In J&K, astir predicted a hung assembly. However, contrary to forecasts, the results threw up a decisive triumph for the Congress-NC alliance.

Admitting that they got the last tally mode disconnected the mark, Gupta said it was a single-phase predetermination and they had to bash their survey and contiguous the exit canvass results wrong a day. “It was a abbreviated duration that we got to enactment successful Haryana, which is thing that happened successful Eastern UP and Bengal astatine the clip of Lok Sabha polls, which is perchance wherefore our predictions were not truthful accurate,” helium added.

Another pollster, who didn’t privation to beryllium identified enactment it connected the emergence of “dormant, quiescent voter”, whose patterns stay unrecorded successful astir surveys, portion it’s the vocal elector who becomes portion of the aforesaid size. The predictions successful Haryana could besides person gone marginally incorrect owing to the plaything successful Dalit votes successful favour of BJP, and the part of Jat votes, helium adds, which the pollsters couldn’t work truthful concisely.

Exit polls had besides missed the people successful the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, wherever galore predicted the BJP-led NDA would triumph implicit 350 seats. However, the BJP ended up with 240 retired of 543 seats, portion Congress made important gains, winning 99 seats.

At the time, astir pollsters admitted to having got the authorities of Uttar Pradesh wrong, wherever Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party bagged 37 seats, and astir an adjacent fig went to the BJP, adjacent arsenic it remained mode beneath the exit canvass projections of 60 seats for the saffron party.

Calling the exit polls a discarded of time, NC person Omar Abdullah, tipped to beryllium J&K main minister, said successful a station connected X, “If you wage for exit polls oregon discarded clip discussing them, you merit each the jokes/memes/ridicule. There was a crushed I called them a discarded of clip a fewer days ago.”