Is AIMIM a vote-cutter or a marginal player in Maharashtra? What the data shows

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the AIMIM contested 44 seats, winning 2 and securing 1.34% of the full votes. This represented a notable betterment from 2014 successful which the enactment contested 22 seats, won two, and garnered lone 0.93% of the full votes. Despite AIMIM’s efforts to task itself arsenic a disruptor of the electoral clasp of alleged secular parties successful the Muslim community, the information reveals that its wide power remains comparatively limited.

The AIMIM successful 2019 contested 44 constituencies, winning Malegaon and Dhule and finishing 2nd successful Aurangabad Central, Aurangabad East, Byculla, and Solapur City Central. The party’s power was felt successful 13 much constituencies, wherever it received much votes than the borderline of victory. The BJP and its allies won 7 of these 13 seats and six went to the Congress-NCP coalition.

Why the AIMIM is struggling successful Maharashtra

The AIMIM made a notable entranceway into Maharashtra’s governmental arena successful 2014 with the unexpected victories of journalist-turned-politician Imtiaz Jaleel successful Aurangabad Central and Byculla. Jaleel’s consequent triumph successful the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, wherever helium became the archetypal Muslim to correspond Aurangabad Central successful 39 years, marked the highest of AIMIM’s show successful the state, peculiarly aft its confederation with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). However, the enactment has since faced important challenges, including the dissolution of its confederation with the VBA implicit seat-sharing disputes and the nonaccomplishment to clasp some Aurangabad Central and Byculla successful the 2019 Assembly elections.

While AIMIM did triumph successful Malegaon Central, aided by the erstwhile MLA Mufti Ismail’s important following, and clinched Dhule successful a intimately contested race—where an unexpected ballot divided among established governmental figures allowed the comparatively chartless Faruk Shah to look victorious—the enactment has struggled to physique connected these archetypal successes.

The caller nonaccomplishment of Imtiaz Jaleel by implicit 1.30 lakh votes successful the 2024 Aurangabad Lok Sabha spot raises captious questions astir the party’s ongoing entreaty among Muslim voters. It appears that the Muslim electorate has shifted its enactment toward parties much susceptible of efficaciously opposing the BJP.

Moreover, interior turmoil wrong AIMIM has surfaced, peculiarly pursuing the sidelining of moving president Gaffar Quadri and erstwhile Mumbai president Faiyyaz Ahmed. This discord has revealed heavy rifts wrong the party, with galore disgruntled leaders, including Quadri, accusing Jaleel of having a tacit knowing with the BJP. “I person each the accusation connected however overmuch wealth has been taken from the Shiv Sena and the BJP. Imtiaz Jaleel can’t fool the Muslim assemblage for long,” Quadri asserted aft learning his sanction was not being considered for the Assembly elections.

The mode forward

To find its footing up of the Assembly elections, the AIMIM has been actively implementing a bid of organisational changes and tweaking its governmental strategy. The enactment has projected an confederation with the Congress and the NCP, suggesting collaboration successful 28 seats.

However, the Congress seems reluctant to judge this offer, with its societal media helping precocious amplifying accusations against erstwhile Aurangabad MP Imtiaz Jaleel that helium had dealings with the BJP.

Complicating matters, Jaleel has announced his volition not lone to contention the Assembly elections but besides to tally successful the Nanded Lok Sabha bypoll, necessitated by the decease of Congress MP Vasantrao Chavan. The BJP mislaid Nanded this twelvemonth contempt the engagement of salient section figures, including erstwhile CM Ashok Chavan, successful the lead-up to the parliamentary polls.

The Nanded parliamentary spot has a 14% Muslim population, which increases to 24% successful Nanded city. The AIMIM made its archetypal electoral foray extracurricular Hyderabad successful Nanded and has established a important pursuing there. However, Jaleel’s insistence connected contesting an predetermination successful a constituency 300 km from his basal successful Aurangabad, alternatively than promoting section leaders, has raised eyebrows astir the party’s governmental trajectory.

“The AIMIM entered the state’s electoral country with sizeable promise, capturing the attraction of young assemblage members who believed it could advocator for their rights. However, its caller governmental decisions person fueled doubts astir whether its existent way genuinely serves the community’s interests successful asserting its rights wrong the broader governmental scenery of the country,” said activistic Shaikh Ubaid Ba Hussain.