Jaishankar’s UAE visit: Abu Dhabi’s role in post-ceasefire Gaza, why it matters to New Delhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited the Emirates 7 times during his premiership. In the region, arsenic the Gaza ceasefire tenuously holds, however is the UAE positioned successful the crisis? What are its determination priorities? And however bash they necktie successful with India’s?

How is the UAE positioned successful the existent determination crisis?

The UAE seems to person agreed ‘in principle’ to assistance Gaza’s post-war administration, astatine slightest arsenic per Israeli reports. Since the opening of the Gaza war, Abu Dhabi has prioritised the continuation of diplomatic ties with Israel and leveraging that to power Israeli actions successful Palestine, alternatively than interruption distant from the Abraham Accords oregon prosecute punitive measures against Tel Aviv.

But Abu Dhabi’s disapproval of Israel successful multilateral fora has been scathing, supporting Arab/Gulf characterisations of Israeli actions successful Gaza arsenic ‘genocide’, condemning its ‘collective punishment’, and consistently re-affirming that an autarkic Palestinian authorities is the lone way to stability.

With the contiguous planetary absorption connected Gaza’s ‘day-after’ reconstruction serving arsenic the contiguous context, Abu Dhabi’s presumption is built connected 2 pillars.

First, some Gaza and the West Bank should beryllium agreed “under a single, morganatic Palestinian Authority” that is “led by an empowered, credible and autarkic caller Prime Minister”, arsenic Lana Nusseibeh (UAE’s Assistant Minister for Political Affairs) wrote successful Financial Times past July. This is an effectual rejection of the PA successful its existent signifier and its incumbent premier, Mohammed Shtayyeh (who President Mahmoud Abbas appointed successful March 2024) and whose popularity amidst Palestinians is suspect.

While Abu Dhabi’s absorption connected the request for a reformed PA has been consistent, the Palestinian Authority had rejected Emirati beingness successful Gaza’s post-conflict governance, conveying it to quality outlet Al Araby Al-Jadeed past October.

Two, the UAE’s imaginable engagement successful post-war Gaza has been made contingent connected the withdrawal of Israeli information beingness successful Gaza and Israel’s practice successful establishing a Palestinian state. Emirati officials person powerfully reiterated this constituent for 15 months, with MBZ asserting successful May past twelvemonth that Abu Dhabi would not “cover” for Israel’s beingness successful Gaza aft Netanyahu called for Emirati cooperation.

Israel itself seeks a greater relation for the UAE successful Gaza (its closest Gulf partner), and Aryeh Deri of Israel’s Charedi Shas enactment (part of Netanyahu’s governing coalition) called upon the Emirates’ Foreign Minister precocious to sermon this.

What are the UAE’s determination priorities?

Along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates is the different motor driving the Gulf’s economical diversification, which necessitates a propulsion distant from everlastingly wars successful the Middle East and towards stability. And Abu Dhabi has a batch astatine stake.

The UAE holds the world’s 2nd largest sovereign wealthiness fund, cumulatively amounting to implicit 2 trillion US dollars, 2nd lone to China, and the world’s eighth largest proven lipid reserves. This has besides allowed the Emirates to instrumentality greater risks and propulsion for a larger enactment relation successful the region, for which it competes with Saudi Arabia — the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, G20 member, and astir populous of Gulf Arab states.

For instance, the UAE went against concerns that different Gulf monarchies had astir civilian atomic powerfulness plants (after the Fukushima catastrophe successful Japan), and began gathering the Barakah atomic works with South Korean assistance successful 2012. Completed successful 2024, the works increases the request for Abu Dhabi to safeguard its vigor premix from conflict, particularly aft the Yemeni Houthis proved their capableness to onslaught Emirati captious infrastructure successful 2022.

In Palestine, the UAE is motivated little by ideological affinity and much by a designation of the request for semipermanent stability, which tin lone beryllium achieved by afloat statehood and economical development.

However, a beardown Emirati relation successful Palestine’s post-war reconstruction besides risks nonstop blow-back for the Gulf Arab monarchy, if Israel sabotages advancement connected Palestinian statehood. This explains the beardown qualifier of Israeli guarantees for a Palestinian authorities that Abu Dhabi asks for earlier integrating itself into Gaza’s time after.

With Israeli willingness for a Palestinian authorities astatine a historical debased — with much colony enlargement expected and Hamas weakened but inactive potent — the risks are greater. The elements of uncertainty are simply excessively galore for Abu Dhabi, supplemented by the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump’s 2nd term.

How person India-UAE ties evolved successful caller years?

The UAE’s attack to resolving the Israel-Palestine contented is closest to what India itself envisages arsenic a ‘negotiated solution’ that includes each parties. But India-UAE alignment goes beyond Palestine.

Abu Dhabi and New Delhi person besides recovered a mode to reenforce each other’s caller geopolitical objectives. On 1 hand, India has proactively participated and led caller determination arrangements specified arsenic the I2U2 and the IMEEC. On the different hand, UAE has some refrained from backing the Pakistani presumption connected the Kashmir quality and has emerged arsenic a cardinal spouse successful developmental projects successful J&K since August 2019, with entities specified arsenic the Lulu Group investing successful commercialized infrastructure successful the valley.

Amidst the caller situation successful the region, the India-UAE narration has existed successful an astir chiseled silo.

In immoderate case, determination is capable to guard-rail the bilateral narration from determination crises. UAE hosts the largest colonisation of the Indian diaspora, which contributes to astir 18% of each remittances. Apart from a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, some states person carved retired peculiar cooperative arrangements crossed sectors, specified arsenic a Bilateral Investment Treaty and civilian atomic practice since September.

While some states are each other’s 2nd largest trading partners, India-UAE commercialized ties person besides mostly weathered the existent situation successful the Red Sea — bilateral commercialized fell from $84.84 cardinal successful 2022-2023 to $83.65 cardinal successful 2023-2024, a marginal dip compared to India-Israel oregon India-Saudi Arabia commercialized for instance.

However, the biggest geopolitical measurement for India, UAE and different spouse states that was contingent connected a post-Abraham Accords unchangeable Middle East was the mega India Middle East Europe economical corridor (IMEEC). Hence, it is successful some New Delhi’s and Abu Dhabi’s halfway involvement to guarantee that bid is not disrupted by the eruption of determination fault-lines again.