Kamala Harris’s pursuit of Republican voters may backfire

As the United States statesmanlike predetermination nears, Vice President Kamala Harris has escalated outreach to Republican voters. Over the past respective weeks, she has been accompanied by erstwhile Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney astatine run events successful the plaything states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and much precocious by erstwhile President George W Bush’s daughter, Barbara.

On October 16 aft Harris held an lawsuit with erstwhile Republican lawmakers successful Pennsylvania, she gave an interrogation to Fox News, saying: “I invitation ideas, whether it beryllium from the Republicans who are supporting me, who were conscionable connected signifier with maine minutes ago, and the concern assemblage and others who tin lend to the decisions that I make.”

Many salient Republicans person endorsed Harris, including erstwhile Vice President Dick Cheney, erstwhile Congressman Adam Kinzinger, and precocious Senator John McCain’s lad Jim. She has besides gained the support of 200 staffers of erstwhile Republican statesmanlike nominees.

Trying to promote this momentum, Harris’s run adjacent established Republicans for Harris chapters successful respective plaything states.

However, Harris’s pursuit of Republican voters whitethorn not bring the results she hopes. At the grassroots level, things stay hopelessly polarised. Prominent endorsements notwithstanding, fewer members of the absorption enactment volition transverse “enemy lines” to backmost Harris. In fact, her rightward sway whitethorn really outgo her much Democratic votes than the Republican ones she gains.

In a canvass released connected October 25, conscionable 4 percent of Republicans said they intended to ballot for Harris. The aforesaid percent of Democrats said they would ballot for Republican campaigner Donald Trump. In different words, Democrats for Trump are conscionable arsenic overmuch of a happening arsenic Republicans for Harris. This makes the prediction that “millions of Republicans” volition formed a ballot for Kamala Harris utterly fanciful.

Some whitethorn reason that Harris is trying to sway Republican voters specifically successful plaything states. But adjacent there, the numbers bash not disagree dramatically.

According to New York Times/Siena polls, Harris is winning 7 percent of registered Republicans successful Arizona portion 6 percent of the state’s Democrats backmost Trump. In Pennsylvania, these numbers are 12 percent and 10 percent respectively. In Nevada, Harris is getting 6 percent of registered Republicans and Trump is getting 10 percent of the Democrats. The borderline of mistake for each these polls is 3 to 4 percent.

While Harris is moving aft the fewer Republican voters who whitethorn flip, she is alienating galore others connected the progressive side. According to the Pew Research Center, progressives represent astir 12 percent of the Democratic base. The millions of votes who went for Senator Bernie Sanders, a salient progressive, successful the Democratic primaries successful 2016 suggest this radical whitethorn beryllium adjacent larger.

Harris’s plaything to the close is decidedly not good received by progressives. Her committedness to motion “the toughest bipartisan border” measure successful decades has earned rebukes from migration advocates. Likewise, her unequivocal enactment for Israeli aggression is simply a acold enarthrosis to proponents of bid and basal quality rights. On healthcare, aft endorsing cosmopolitan sum during her 2020 run, Harris has present stopped good abbreviated of that.

Given their governmental commitments, progressive leftists won’t flip to Trump, but they whitethorn ballot for a 3rd enactment oregon enactment home, which would wounded Harris, particularly successful the battleground states.

Chasing Republicans is, therefore, unwise. And past proves it. Democrats pursued them hard successful 2016 arsenic well. Before that statesmanlike election, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer claimed that: “For each blue-collar Democrat we suffer successful occidental Pennsylvania, we volition prime up 2 mean Republicans successful the suburbs successful Philadelphia, and you tin repetition that successful Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

Needless to say, Schumer was wrong. Democratic campaigner Hillary Rodham Clinton mislaid to Trump successful a historic, humiliating upset. The lone authorities Schumer mentioned that Clinton won was Illinois, a Democratic stronghold that besides happens to beryllium wherever she was born.

As the erstwhile caput of authorities campaigned successful profoundly reddish states similar Nebraska, her “blue wall” crumbled. No Democrat since Walter Mondale successful 1984 had mislaid Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that was the biggest nonaccomplishment successful American statesmanlike past with Mondale lone winning his location authorities of Minnesota.

Harris would person had a higher accidental of winning if she had not pursued voters whom she cannot triumph and alternatively focused connected those whom she can: independents and progressives and cardinal groups wrong them.

A caller canvass from AtlasIntel shows Trump up with independents by 8.5 points. The 2 astir important issues for independents are the system and crime, and Harris could person easy appealed to them connected these points without swinging truthful acold to the close and chasing aft endorsements from neoconservatives and others connected the hard right.

Furthermore, independents besides clasp positions that are much moderate. Independents overwhelmingly favour matrimony equality, enlargement of Medicare and marijuana legalisation – issues that progressives besides attraction about.

Harris could person besides won backmost immoderate progressives by walking backmost immoderate of her right-wing rhetoric and changing her posture connected US overseas argumentation and much specifically, Israel.

Like her moving mate, Tim Waltz, Harris has been afloat successful Israel’s corner. She has refused to region herself from the complicity of President Joe Biden’s medication successful Israeli militarism, concern and terror. That complicity has lone mounted successful caller weeks arsenic the White House, which she is portion of, oversees Israel’s “General’s Plan” of ethnically cleansing bluish Gaza done bombing, starvation and expulsion of civilians. Biden’s last-ditch effort to propulsion for a short-term truce and merchandise of Israeli-American captives would not alteration voters’ perceptions of wherever Harris stands.

This assertive posture has particularly alienated Arab and Muslim Americans. The second accounted for nether 1.5 percent of registered voters successful 2022, but their organisation gives them disproportionate power, which they already demonstrated with the uncommitted question they led during the Democratic primaries.

While radical thin to absorption connected Michigan, Muslim voters are besides a important radical successful Georgia and Arizona. Their numbers acold outstrip Biden’s razor-thin borderline of triumph successful those states successful 2020. Even successful Rust Belt states similar Pennsylvania and Wisconsin wherever Biden won much comfortably, Muslim Americans unsocial tin marque the difference. That’s not adjacent taking into relationship the galore Arab voters who aren’t Muslim.

As per usual, the American duopoly is treating voters to a prime of atrocious vs worse. But simply being the lesser of 2 evils won’t beryllium capable for Harris to win.

Still, arsenic November nears, she’s chasing voters who don’t privation her and shunning those she needs the most. It’s not adjacent conscionable Arabs and Muslims. Scores of voters crossed demographic groups are disgusted by the Gaza genocide and tendency much progressive politics. Harris does not mean to present those policies and whitethorn endure electorally for it.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.