MICHAEL WOLFF: Why Trump's top aides tell me they're now holding their breath - as he ignores their advice and gambles on one final shot to break this historic election deadlock

Last week, I asked a apical Trump authoritative whether helium would beryllium placing a stake connected the result of the election.

'I'm not betting,' came the reply.

I asked the aforesaid question of a large Democratic Party donor (far richer than the Trump aide).

Their response? 'I'll lend immoderate it takes for Kamala to win. But a bet? An existent bet? That's a antithetic story.'

We're present heavy into 'silly season' successful American politics – during which, arsenic the predetermination draws near, immoderate superior politico oregon pundit is expected to person a definite presumption connected which mode the ballot volition fall. 

And yet, precise fewer radical I talk to – astatine immoderate level of expertise oregon insider lasting – are making specified an out-front call.

With little than 4 weeks to go, this is the closest-fought statesmanlike election successful modern history. All the signs agree: vantage nobody.

In a way, this is each portion of the Great Political Humbling brought astir by the emergence of Donald J. Trump.

If you listened to the pollsters successful 2016, Trump was a definite loser.

In 2020, with Covid, and aft 4 years of Trump chaos, the astute wealth reasonably counted Trump out. But past helium pulled wrong 44,000 votes of winning – adjacent capable for him, and galore others, to quality the results.

Then, successful a harsh rebuke, and contempt predictions of a looming 'Red Wave', galore of Trump's Republican proxies were wiped retired successful the 2022 midterms.

Except, months later, erstwhile Trump declared helium would beryllium moving successful 2024, helium roseate erstwhile again successful statesmanlike polls and, without hardly ever sacrificing his play game, flicked distant each his Republican challengers with near-effortless ease.

What's more, he's managed to someway sidestep each ineligible hurdle that threatened him on the way.

Democrat assurance soon turned into a large foreboding – and it culminated, aft the Trump-Biden debate, successful specified certainty of decision that the Party ousted its old-man modular bearer, the sitting president.

The emergence of Kamala Harris not lone confused the race, but confused Trump himself, whose superior talking constituent had been Joe Biden's weakness and fragility.

The two-year contention was abruptly reduced to small much than 90 days, making Trump's accustomed strategy of repeating insults until they instrumentality overmuch little effective.

But then, adjacent with Harris's aboriginal and meteoric stardom, she has since reverted to the stubborn mean, a comparative dead-heat successful the polls with Trump. And that's wherever things person stayed since precocious August, with neither Harris's worshipful convention, beardown statement performance, nor thing other managing to determination the needle.

Steve Bannon, that cardinal designer of Trump's 2016 triumph and perspicacious gadfly, erstwhile theorized to maine that successful adjacent statesmanlike elections – and, indeed, astir of this century's large elections worldwide – small matters but the last 2 weeks of a run and the past content connected the minds of plaything voters.

It's each astir the alleged 'October Surprise' or, astatine least, an unpredictable alteration successful the autumn wind.

And truthful present we are.

Team Trump believes that Trump, the consummate salesman, ever knows however to adjacent a deal.

In October 2016, helium surrendered his phone, and hence his reckless tweets, to his son-in-law and main advisor, Jared Kushner. His abrupt subject and absorption connected the grievances of moving men and women successful Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania helped bring him his electoral assemblage victory.

Likewise, successful 2020, helium yet deed his stride successful precocious October, with a stronger than expected statement performance, tightening the race. Another week of that 'on-message Trump' mightiness actually have swung it for him.

A problem, however, with relying connected Trump for that beardown finish, is that the 'final impression' for voters comes down to his volatile temper swings and off-script impulses.

Virtually each of Trump's advisors person urged him to absorption connected the economy, undoubtedly the astir important contented successful this year's race.

But instead, this October, Trump has doubled down connected his idiosyncratic resentment toward Harris – and connected the choler helium feels that his winning run against Biden was 'stolen'.

Even erstwhile helium does absorption connected cardinal argumentation issues successful his rambling speeches, helium tends to dispense with the economy, turning alternatively to migration – the contented helium believes won him 2016 and that volition bring his supporters location again successful 2024.

But a byproduct present is that migration tends to beryllium an affectional hot-button for Trump, sending him careening into rage and often incoherence — not the perfect past impression.

Still, his team, portion holding its breath, besides acknowledges that, successful truthful galore past instances, Trump's 'instincts' person worked to his advantage.

If helium wins, Pennsylvania volition apt person been crucial. And if so, his winning flush, the Trump campy is already theorizing, could good person been this past weekend's 'Return to Butler' rally, the country of the archetypal assassination effort against him successful agrarian Pennsylvania.

Coming backmost to Butler, recalling that bonzer infinitesimal and focusing his sizeable prima powerfulness connected this agrarian community, wherever a fewer 1000 votes could manus him the election, was his ain world amusement brainstorm.

It is, however, confounding to Team Trump – which has agelong equated 'winning' the quality rhythm with winning – that the Harris run has seemed to shy distant from headlines, notably going quiescent aft the large excitement of the Democratic normal and aft her definite statement triumph successful September.

Instead of dominating the news, Harris's strategy appears to person been to enactment measured, tempered and – successful the fewer interviews she has granted – cautious to debar large headlines.

Her past week of higher-profile media hits — Howard Stern, 60 Minutes, The View, the podcast 'Call Her Daddy' — tin past beryllium work successful 2 precise antithetic ways: that she is comfy capable with her pb (the latest New York Times/Siena canvass has her 3-points ahead, though yet neck-and-neck successful the plaything states) to hazard greater vulnerability – oregon that she is panicking, having abruptly decided she indispensable dramatically alteration her media strategy.

In galore ways, some campaigns proceed to consciousness that the different broadside volition beryllium cardinal to victory: Donald Trump and the heavy aversion felt by truthful galore Americans is the Democrats' favored hand; and Kamala Harris and the visceral dislike, and heavy suspicion, of her successful MAGA-land is the Trumpers' ace.

In the accustomed melodramatic arc of a statesmanlike campaign, specified authorities of property are worked retired successful a last TV debate. But this time, leaving everyone hanging, determination won't beryllium different statement head-to-head – nary past look successful this election.

This historical deadlock whitethorn proceed to hold. Without an 'October Surprise', and with neither broadside acceptable to fold, that could mean November, December and January surprises.