MVA will hope LS poll trends hold in Maharashtra; BJP sits pretty by that standard in Jharkhand

Maharashtra

The Maharashtra contention volition spot the ruling Mahayuti – comprising the Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – prosecute successful a rematch of the Lok Sabha polls. In the wide elections held earlier this year, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance’s Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) had emerged up of the Mahayuti.

The Lok Sabha setback was the 2nd electoral dent for the BJP successful Maharashtra aft the 2019 Assembly polls ended successful a hung House – the BJP won 105 seats and a 25.75% ballot share, followed by the Shiv Sena astatine 56 seats and 16.41%, the NCP astatine 54 and 16.71%, and the Congress astatine 44 and 15.87%. Smaller parties and Independents won the remaining 29 seats.

Results successful 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections.

After nary enactment was capable to triumph an implicit majority, and the BJP-Shiv Sena confederation collapsed, the authorities was concisely placed nether President’s Rule. Days later, the BJP’s Fadnavis and a conception of the NCP led by Ajit Pawar came unneurotic to involvement a assertion to signifier the government, but anticipating that their hastily cobbled unneurotic confederation would not wide a level test, resigned aft having taken oath arsenic the CM and Deputy CM successful a rushed midnight ceremony.

The impasse lone ended aft the Congress and undivided Shiv Sena and NCP formed the MVA and, with capable numbers, staked a assertion to signifier the authorities with Thackeray astatine the helm.

But since then, Maharashtra has been successful a authorities of governmental tumult, peculiarly aft the splits successful the Sena (in 2022) and aboriginal the NCP (in 2023) engineered by the BJP that led to the autumn of the MVA authorities and the enactment of the Mahayuti authorities led by Shinde.

In the caller Lok Sabha polls though, these bid of governmental splits positive the Opposition communicative look to person gone against the BJP. It won conscionable 9 of the 28 seats it contested, falling from 23 successful 2019, followed by the Shiv Sena astatine 7 of 15, and the NCP astatine 1 of four.

The MVA unneurotic won 30 seats, with the Congress emerging arsenic the starring party, winning 13 of the 17 seats it contested. The Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 of the 21 seats it contested portion the NCP(SP) won 8 of its 10 seats.

Breaking the Lok Sabha results down to the Assembly conception level shows that the MVA would person narrowly cleared the 145-seat bulk people with leads successful 153 segments, followed by the Mahayuti successful 125 seats, with the remaining 10 seats going to Independents and smaller parties.

What is important though is that, successful presumption of ballot share, the alliances were neck-and-neck – the MVA had a marginal vantage astatine 43.71% compared to 43.55% for the Mahayuti.

Jharkhand

In the Jharkhand seats voting successful the 2nd phase, concentrated successful the Santhal Pargana and North Chhotanagpur regions, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led confederation had led successful the 2019 Assembly elections en way to coming to powerfulness nether Hemant Soren.

The JMM won 13 of the 2nd signifier seats successful 2019, followed by the allies Congress astatine 8 and the CPI(ML)L astatine one. The BJP won 12 seats, its present state All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP) won two, and the erstwhile Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) that merged with the BJP successful 2020, won different 2 seats.

Jharkhand signifier 2 seats 2019 results.

The BJP was outdone by the JMM connected seats contempt securing a overmuch larger ballot stock successful the 2nd signifier seats. The BJP’s 33.38% was acold up of the JMM’s 18.48%, followed by the Congress’s 14.26% and the AJSUP’s 9.6%.

In the precocious concluded Lok Sabha polls, the results astatine the Assembly conception level amusement the BJP-AJSUP harvester comfortably up with leads successful 21 segments, with the JMM-Congress confederation starring successful 12 segments, and the remaining going to Independents and smaller parties. In presumption of ballot shares too, the NDA stood astatine 45.41% and the INDIA bloc astatine 37%.

At involvement connected Wednesday

Seats successful Maharashtra: 288 – 29 SC and 25 ST

Turnout successful 2019: 61.44%

Results successful Maharashtra successful past polls.

Seats successful Jharkhand Phase 2: 38 – 3 SC and 8 ST

Turnout successful 2019: 66.9%

Results successful Jharkhand Phase 2 seats successful past polls.

The candidates

Candidate breakdown.

MAHARASHTRA: PARTY-WISE CANDIDATES WITH CRIMINAL CASES

BJP: 102 candidates (68% of party’s full candidates)

Congress: 59 (58%)

Shiv Sena (UBT): 63 (66%)

NCP (SP): 51 (61%)

Shiv Sena: 52 (54%)

NCP: 32 (54%)

JHARKHAND: PARTY-WISE CANDIDATES WITH CRIMINAL CASES

BJP: 14 (44%)

JMM: 5 (25%)

Congress: 5 (42%)

AJSUP: 4 (67%)

RJD: 2 (100%)

Of the 38 seats voting successful Jharkhand’s 2nd phase, 28 seats person 3 oregon much candidates facing pending cases. Mandu has the astir specified candidates astatine nine.

MAHARASHTRA: PARTY-WISE CROREPATI CANDIDATES

BJP: 144 candidates (97% of party’s full candidates)

Congress: 94 (93%)

Shiv Sena (UBT): 94 (99%)

NCP (SP): 80 (95%)

Shiv Sena: 79 (89%)

NCP: 58 (98%)

Parag Shah, the BJP’s Ghatkopar campaigner is the richest successful the fray with assets worthy Rs 3,383 crore.

JHARKHAND: PARTY-WISE CROREPATI CANDIDATES

BJP: 23 (72%)

JMM: 18 (90%)

Congress: 10 (83%)

AJSUP: 5 (83%)

RJD: 2 (100%)

The SP’s Aquil Akhtar, contesting successful Pakur, has the highest assets successful the 2nd signifier astatine Rs 403 crore.

MAHARASHTRA: YOUNGEST AND OLDEST

Youngest: 13 candidates aged 25, the lowest eligible age, including 1 each from the NCP(SP), Congress and Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi.

Oldest: 87-year-old Laxman Pawar, an Independent contesting Georai

JHARKHAND: YOUNGEST AND OLDEST

Youngest: Nine candidates aged 25, including 5 Independents

Oldest: 75-year-old Hiralal Sankhawar, contesting Sindri for the All India Forward Bloc

The large contests

MAHARASHTRA

Nagpur South West | Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, BJP, vs Prafulla Gudhade, Congress

Kopri-Pachpakhadi | CM Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena, vs Kedar Dighe, nephew of precocious Sena seasoned Anand Dighe, Shiv Sena (UBT)

Baramati | Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, NCP, vs Ajit’s nephew and Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew Yugendra Pawar, NCP (SP)

Worli | Former CM Uddhav Thackeray’s lad Aaditya Thackeray, Shiv Sena (UBT), vs erstwhile Congress MP Milind Deora, Shiv Sena

Sakoli | State enactment main Nana Patole, Congress, vs Avinash Brahmankar, BJP

JHARKHAND

Barhait | CM Hemant Soren, JMM, vs Gamaliel Hembrom, BJP

Silli | AJSUP main Sudesh Mahato vs erstwhile MLA Amit Mahato, JMM

Gandey | Sitting MLA Kalpana Soren, JMM, vs Muniya Devi, BJP

Dhanwar | Former CM Babulal Marandi, BJP, vs Rajkumar Yadav, CPI(ML)L

Jamtara | Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita Soren, BJP, vs sitting MLA Irfan Ansari, Congress