No India-China direct flights: Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh gain as connecting hubs for flyers

In November, resumption of nonstop flights featured successful the discussions betwixt External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi astatine their gathering successful Rio de Janeiro during the G20 Summit. That gathering took spot little than a period aft India and China announced a borderline patrolling statement connected October 21, a wide motion of de-escalation. Two days later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met astatine the BRICS Summit successful Russia.

Lack of nonstop aerial connectivity betwixt India and mainland China, on with stringent visa restrictions, person led to airlines from some countries losing retired connected imaginable rider loads. Passenger postulation betwixt the 2 countries—now solely done connecting hubs successful South and Southeast Asia— is present little than fractional of what it was successful 2019. Nevertheless, it is inactive not insignificant, and a fewer airlines from different countries person spotted this and capitalised connected the opportunity.

In January-October 2024, the full fig of flyers (in some directions) betwixt India and China was implicit 4.60 lakh, sharply down from adjacent to a cardinal successful the corresponding 10 months of 2019, an investigation of rider information provided by planetary aviation analytics institution Cirium finds. In January-October 2019, nonstop formation passengers accounted for astir 46 per cent of the full rider flows betwixt the 2 countries.

Despite the slump successful the wide numbers, airports successful Singapore, Vietnam, and adjacent Bangladesh person managed to timepiece higher India-China rider postulation than they did successful 2019, mostly acknowledgment to their respective location airlines’ strategy to absorption connected connecting specified flyers. Other hubs, however, are either yet to drawback up, oregon are struggling.

Singapore, Bangladesh, Vietnam gain

In the archetypal 10 months of 2024, implicit 98,000 passengers travelling betwixt India and China connected successful Singapore, up 16.6 per cent from the corresponding play successful 2019. This tin beryllium attributed to the Singapore Airlines radical offering connections to assorted points successful China from a fig of Indian airports via the city-state. Singapore is present the second-largest connecting hub—after Hong Kong—for India-China passengers, up from the 3rd spot successful 2019.

Bangladesh’s superior Dhaka, which connected conscionable implicit 4,500 India-China passengers successful the archetypal 10 months of 2019, saw the numbers surge to implicit 30,000 successful the corresponding play of 2024, with Bangladeshi carriers US-Bangla Airlines and Biman Bangladesh capitalising connected the opportunity.

Notably, Vietnam’s 2 large airports—Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh—that had hardly immoderate India-China connecting passengers successful 2019, unneurotic served arsenic the connecting hubs for astir 20,000 specified flyers successful January-October 2024, acknowledgment to Vietnamese carriers VietJet Air and Vietnam Airlines having densified their networks to facilitate transportation postulation via Vietnam.

Where different connecting hubs stand

The Hong Kong airport, which is not precisely considered a Chinese airdrome owed to Hong Kong’s peculiar autonomous presumption and a antithetic visa authorities than mainland China, continues to beryllium the starring connecting hub betwixt India and mainland China. The fig of passengers connecting astatine Hong Kong—almost 1.73 lakh successful January-October 2024—was 12.5 per cent little than the corresponding play of 2019.

Thailand’s superior Bangkok—with its 2 airports—was the second-largest connecting hub for flyers betwixt India and China successful 2019. In January-October 2024, it was astatine the 3rd spot, connecting astir 93,000 passengers via the 2 airports, down astir 31 per cent from 5 years ago. Thai carriers, chiefly the Thai AirAsia group, are making efforts to summation their stock of this marketplace by adding much capableness connected flights to Bangkok from Indian airports.

Kuala Lumpur, too, saw a notable diminution successful India-China connecting rider numbers vis-à-vis 2019. Malaysian carriers’ capacities deployed connected routes betwixt Kuala Lumpur and some India and China were little than the pre-pandemic levels. In January-October of 2024, Kuala Lumpur’s India-China connecting postulation was conscionable implicit 32,000 passengers, down implicit 44 per cent from the archetypal 10 months of 2019.

Colombo, wherever implicit 43,000 passengers travelling betwixt India and China connected successful January-October 2019, saw a steep driblet of implicit 82 per cent successful the comparable play of 2024. This chiefly was connected relationship of craft capableness constraints affecting the SriLankan Airlines network. Cirium information shows that SriLankan operated conscionable 290 flights betwixt Colombo and Chinese airports successful January-October of past year, sharply down from implicit 1,200 flights successful the aforesaid play of 2019.

Opportunity for Chinese and Indian airlines

Although normalisation of aerial connectivity would apt payment airlines from some India and China, Beijing apt believes that Chinese carriers person much to summation arsenic they enjoyed the ascendant stock of the nonstop formation marketplace betwixt the 2 countries earlier the pandemic. It is not astonishing past that China has been nudging India to let reestablishment of nonstop aerial connectivity and normalise visa issuances to Chinese nationals.

While China claims that it is issuing a ample fig of visas to Indian nationals, Indian visa issuances to Chinese nationals person reportedly crashed from astir 2 lakh successful 2019 to a fewer thousands successful 2024. In January 2024, the Chinese embassy successful Delhi had said that implicit 180,000 Chinese visas were issued to Indian citizens successful 2023.

Chinese and Indian airlines had 539 scheduled nonstop flights a period betwixt the 2 countries arsenic of December 2019, with a cumulative spot capableness of implicit 1.25 lakh. Indian carriers—IndiGo and Air India—between them had 168, oregon astir 31 per cent of these flights. The different astir 70 per cent of the flights belonged to Chinese carriers, which included Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Shandong Airlines.

But this does not needfully mean that Chinese carriers volition proceed to predominate with specified a monolithic stock erstwhile nonstop formation connectivity is re-established, according to aviation manufacture watchers. Between 2019 and now, a batch has changed successful the Indian aviation landscape. Air India is present privatised and good capitalised, and harbours ambitions to turn rapidly, including successful the planetary market. IndiGo, the ascendant home bearer successful India, is simply a batch much focussed present connected expanding its planetary network.