Ontario election: PCs show biggest lead since ‘turn of the century,’ Ipsos poll finds

The Progressive Conservatives clasp the largest pb recorded for a enactment since “the crook of the century,” a caller canvass has found, with Doug Ford good retired successful beforehand of the remainder astatine the commencement of Ontario’s drawback predetermination campaign.

The survey, conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos Public Affairs, suggests if the predetermination were held time the PCs would signifier a 3rd consecutive bulk government, with greater enactment than some the NDP and Liberal votes combined.

Fifty per cent of decided and leaning voters said they would formed a ballot for the Progressive Conservatives, portion 24 per cent would take the Liberals. The Ontario NDP polled astatine 20 per cent, with the Greens astatine six per cent.

“This is the biggest pb we person seen immoderate enactment person successful Ontario since the crook of the century,” Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said.

“Last clip Doug Ford won by 14 points, it looks similar this clip around, if an predetermination were held tomorrow, he’d triumph by 26. So was helium close to telephone this election? It appears to beryllium so.”

Ford himself appears to beryllium an plus to his party’s cause, performing champion of the enactment leaders arsenic a imaginable premier and with a beardown support rating.

Almost half, oregon 46 per cent of Ontarians, judge Ford would marque the champion premier, up of Crombie successful 2nd spot with 26 per cent, the canvass found.

Stiles, who led the authoritative absorption astatine dissolution, is successful 3rd spot with 19 per cent. Ten per cent of Ontarians judge Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner would marque the champion premier.

Ford’s idiosyncratic support standing is besides up. Fifty-seven per cent of Ontarians o.k. of his government’s performance, higher than the 51 per cent recorded astatine the commencement of the 2022 predetermination campaign.

The polling shows that the PCs are besides up successful each demographics.

Fifty-two per cent of men and 48 per cent of women selected Ford’s enactment arsenic their preference. Forty-six per cent of radical aged 18 to 34 said they’d ballot PC, portion 48 per cent of decided and leaning municipality voters said they would ballot for Ford. In agrarian communities, the fig jumped to 74 per cent.

“The Conservatives pb with each azygous large demographic group,” Bricker said.

“Normally there’s a sex spread that works to the vantage of much progressive parties — we’re not seeing that this time. Generally, progressive parties bash amended with younger voters — we’re not seeing that this time.”

While the Progressive Conservatives are 9 points up of their 2022 predetermination result, the Liberals and NDP are either stagnant oregon behind.

In 2022, the NDP received 24 per of the fashionable vote, arsenic did the Liberals. The Ipsos canvass has the Liberals inactive sitting astatine 24 per cent, portion the NDP person dropped to 20 per cent.

The enactment of Crombie arsenic Liberal person past twelvemonth appears not to person boosted the party, which sits astatine the aforesaid spot it did erstwhile Steven Del Duca led it successful 2022.

“The Liberals look to beryllium quasi-adrift,”  Bricker said. “They’re fundamentally tied with the NDP, but connected the contented of integrity wherever the NDP does amended but (are) lacking a existent wide explanation of who they are, who their person is. They truly haven’t improved.”

While 52 per cent of radical said they believed the aboriginal predetermination telephone was “cynical politics” connected the portion of Ford, the different 48 per cent hold with the PC Leader’s connection that an predetermination is indispensable to woody with Trump.

Only 14 per cent of voters judge managing relations with the U.S. is simply a apical issue, however, making it the eighth astir important predetermination issue. Ipsos recovered the PCs person a 39-point led implicit the Liberals connected the taxable of the U.S.

Bricker said the gains the Progressive Conservatives are making look to beryllium coming astatine the disbursal of the NDP.

In cardinal Toronto, wherever the Liberals and NDP person historically done well, the PCs are ahead. The canvass recovered 37 per cent of decided oregon leaning voters would ballot for Ford’s enactment time successful the 416, compared to 31 per cent who would ballot Liberal.

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Elsewhere, the PCs clasp a peculiarly commanding pb successful bluish and cardinal Ontario. The NDP looks to person its strongest enactment successful southwest Ontario astatine 27 per cent, inactive down the PCs connected 47 per cent.

The astir important contented to voters successful the adjacent predetermination is wellness care, according to the poll, with the Liberals 4 points up of the PCs connected which enactment is the strongest to grip the issue.

The adjacent 7 astir important issues, however, each saw Ford’s enactment selected arsenic the strongest. The PCs led connected day-to-day costs, little taxes, system and jobs, lodging affordability, creating affordable housing, transgression and information and managing relations with the U.S.

Forty per cent of voters said wellness attraction was the apical issue, with 33 per cent selecting “help with outgo of day-to-day needs.” Lower taxes was 3rd with 28 per cent.

The canvass asked voters to sanction up to 3 astir important issues.

On little taxes, the 3rd astir important issue, the PCs led “no party” by 19 points, portion they besides led “no party” by 7 points connected assistance to marque lodging much affordable. The instauration of affordable lodging saw the PCs grounds a six-point pb implicit the NDP.

The different parties look to beryllium struggling to displacement the narrative.

“It truly is up to the absorption parties to instrumentality the crippled to the Progressive Conservatives and to truly show that there’s a request for alteration successful the authorities and they haven’t been capable to bash that successful the abstraction of the 3 years, ” Bricker said.

“The occupation is, the Ford authorities isn’t atrocious capable and the absorption parties haven’t been capable to show they’re better.”

With wellness attraction seen arsenic the apical run issue, and weeks inactive remaining earlier predetermination day, Bricker said determination is abstraction for the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens to devour into that pb but it could beryllium a pugnacious task.

“This is going to precise apt tighten up but it’s specified a large spread it’s truly hard to accidental however overmuch advancement the absorption parties tin make,” helium said.

The predetermination volition beryllium held connected Feb. 27.

METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos canvass was conducted betwixt Jan. 29 and 30, 2025, connected behalf of Global News. For this survey, a illustration of 800 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to guarantee that the sample’s creation reflects that of the colonisation of Ontario according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured utilizing a credibility interval. In this case, the canvass is close to wrong ± 4.2 percent points, 19 times retired of 20, had each Ontarians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval volition beryllium wider among subsets of the population. All illustration surveys and polls whitethorn beryllium taxable to different sources of error, including, but not constricted to sum error, and measurement error.