Present and Accounted For: House Republicans' small majority could make attendance a priority

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It’s agelong been said that Congress is simply a batch similar school.

What’s the archetypal happening they bash successful school? Take attendance.

That is 1 happening which they usually don’t bash successful Congress.

But they mightiness adjacent year.

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Figuring retired who is contiguous and accounted for and who is retired volition look arsenic 1 of the astir melodramatic regular events connected Capitol Hill.

It is ever astir the mathematics connected Capitol Hill.

But the 119th Congress volition really beryllium astir the math.

Every time in the House volition hinge connected who’s sick. Who has a parent/teacher conference. Whose level was delayed owed to snow. Who is conscionable playing hooky and isn’t reliable. Who was giving a code downtown, got caught successful postulation and conscionable didn’t marque it backmost successful time. Whose kid is starring successful the schoolhouse play. Whose aunt died.

President Trump and House Republicans person large plans for their 2025 legislative agenda. But the miniscule size of the GOP bulk could temper those expectations connected a regular basis.

House Republican Leadership quality    conference

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks during a property league on with different House Republican leaders astatine the U.S. Capitol successful Washington DC, United States connected November 19, 2024.  (Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

It volition beryllium absorbing to spot what Republicans tin execute.

Republicans volition apt statesman the caller twelvemonth with a 219-215 majority. So 434 seats. There is 1 vacancy arsenic erstwhile Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That’s a borderline of 4 seats. But it successful reality, it means the GOP bulk tin lone tolerate 1 Republican defector connected each rotation telephone ballot without needing assistance from the different side. One Republican "nay" is 218-216. But 2 Republican rebels produces a 217-217 tie. By rule, ties suffer successful the House.

But the opening of the caller Congress connected January 3 could correspond the Halycon days for the House Republican Conference.

Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., mean to resign successful January to articulation the Trump Administration. Stefanik is up for United Nations Ambassador and requires confirmation for that post. The President-elect tapped Waltz to service arsenic National Security Advisor. That presumption is not taxable to Senate confirmation. So the Republican bulk volition dwindle to 217-215. At that point, Republicans can’t suffer immoderate votes to walk their agenda.

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That is simply a occupation for House Republicans who regularly had a squadron of defectors – ranging from keeping the authorities unfastened to adjacent impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could adjacent spell problems for House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., returning to the Speaker’s suite. Johnson indispensable triumph an outright bulk of each House members voting erstwhile the caller Congress convenes connected January 3 to go Speaker. He’ll person a spot of a cushion erstwhile the caller Congress starts. But it won’t beryllium much. House Republicans inactive endure from governmental PTSD aft the 15 rounds it took to elite erstwhile House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., aboriginal past year.

Yes. There volition beryllium peculiar elections to capable the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has already called a peculiar predetermination for the Gaetz spot for April 1.

You can’t marque this worldly up.

Gaetz waves connected  RNC stage

U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves connected signifier connected the 3rd time of the Republican National Convention astatine the Fiserv Forum connected July 17, 2024 successful Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

The different peculiar elections are months distant due to the fact that Stefanik and Waltz haven’t resigned yet. In fact, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns successful precocious January, it whitethorn beryllium May earlier there’s a peculiar predetermination successful her spot – based connected New York instrumentality and discretion afforded New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).

The results successful peculiar elections sometimes nutrient "special" results. The accustomed electorate periodically stays location and the other enactment captures those seats successful off-cycle elections. So, adjacent though these are "Republican" seats, there’s nary warrant that Republicans volition automatically prevail.

But if things spell according to plan, Republicans volition person those seats backmost successful a fewer months, with a comparatively robust 220-215 majority. That means Republicans tin suffer up to 2 votes connected immoderate large issue.

But determination are ever absences. Always resignations.

And this isn’t constricted to the Republican broadside of the aisle.

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There person agelong been concerns astir the wellness and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the apical Democrat connected the House Agriculture Committee. Scott faced disapproval earlier this twelvemonth implicit a deficiency of nationalist appearances and interviews.

76-year-old Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., is the apical Democrat connected the House Natural Resources Committee. Grijalva vowed that this word would beryllium his past aft suffering from cancer. The unwellness sidelined Grijalva for months. He missed much than 300 rotation telephone votes connected the level betwixt February and this autumn and did not behaviour interviews.

Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Bill Pascrell, D-N.J. and Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., were each successful bureau erstwhile they passed distant this year. Late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., died successful 2023.

Democrats marque a batch of sound close present astir the docket of President-elect Trump. It volition beryllium incumbent connected Democrats to person afloat attendance to reason Republicans and mostly marque beingness miserable for the majority. But Democrats tin lone bash that if they amusement up. All the time.

Jeffries astatine  Capitol presser

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., conducts his play quality league successful the Capitol Visitor Center connected Thursday, May 23, 2024.  (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Such was the lawsuit erstwhile House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., had the votes of each House Democrat connected each rotation telephone for Speaker successful January and October of past year. Only Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed a mates of votes due to the fact that helium underwent a surgical procedure. But Trone returned to Capitol Hill aboriginal that evening to vote.

Rep. Al Green, D-Tex., was hospitalized this past February. But Green came to the Capitol successful a wheelchair successful February to assistance torpedo the archetypal effort to impeach Mayorkas. Republicans had 3 defectors connected their side. Green’s ballot caller from a infirmary gurney forced the GOP effort to neglect connected the level and effort again.

One origin which was a situation for the GOP was the wellness of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was diagnosed with crab past twelvemonth and was retired the archetypal portion of 2023. Scalise has present recovered. But his lack hamstrung the GOP connected large votes similar the archetypal Mayorkas impeachment.

Unfortunately – and inevitably – determination volition beryllium absences owed to health. And God forbid, death. Rarely does a Congress walk without the decease of a lawmaker – sometimes unforeseen. Late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and 2 aides died successful a postulation mishap during the summertime of 2022.

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So perceive for the attendance bells successful the House adjacent year. Check the upwind forecast and the formation docket astatine Reagan National Airport. Better look astatine Waze if they’re flying into Dulles. See if the flu oregon different round of COVID burns done Congress.

Yes. Understanding whether idiosyncratic is for oregon against a fixed measure oregon amendment is ever important successful Congress. But what supersedes that is whether they’re really present.

Chad Pergram presently serves arsenic a elder legislature analogous for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the web successful September 2007 and is based retired of Washington, D.C.

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