Rapidly escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict stirs fears of wider war

CAIRO — 

This week saw a dizzying escalation successful the 11-month struggle betwixt Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

First came 2 days of exploding pagers and walkie-talkies utilized by Hezbollah — deadly attacks pinned connected Israel that besides maimed civilians astir Lebanon.

Hezbollah's person vowed to retaliate and, connected Friday, the militant radical launched dozens of rockets into bluish Israel. Later successful the day, Israel said it killed the commandant of Hezbollah’s astir elite portion with a onslaught successful Beirut that near astatine slightest 14 dead.

Many fearfulness the events are the prelude to an all-out warfare betwixt Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite radical that is Lebanon’s astir almighty equipped force. A warfare threatens to bring devastation successful Lebanon, dense rocket occurrence into Israeli cities and further destabilization to a portion already shaken by the Gaza war.

During 11 months of exchanges of occurrence implicit the Lebanese-Israeli border, some sides person repeatedly pulled backmost erstwhile the spiral of reprisals appeared connected the verge of going retired of control, nether dense unit from the U.S. and its allies.

But successful caller weeks, Israeli leaders person warned of a imaginable bigger subject cognition with the extremity of stopping attacks from Lebanon to let tens of thousands of Israelis displaced by the warring to instrumentality to homes adjacent the border.

Here are immoderate things to cognize astir the situation:

What were the latest strikes?

An Israeli airstrike Friday brought down a high-rise gathering successful Beirut’s confederate suburbs, a Shi’ite-majority country known arsenic Dahiyeh wherever Hezbollah has a beardown presence. At slightest 14 radical were killed and much than 60 wounded, the deadliest Israeli onslaught successful the Lebanese superior since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

The Israeli subject said the onslaught killed Ibrahim Akil, the commandant of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, arsenic good arsenic different apical leaders of the unit.

Hezbollah aboriginal confirmed Akil was killed, a dense stroke to Hezbollah’s astir effectual fighters. Israel said Akil led the group’s run of rocket, drone and different occurrence into bluish Israel.

The onslaught came aft the daze of the physics instrumentality bombings, successful which hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies utilized by Hezbollah detonated connected Tuesday and Wednesday. At slightest 37 radical were killed, including 2 children, and immoderate 3,000 wounded. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

The casualties included immoderate fighters from the group, but galore of the wounded were civilians connected to Hezbollah’s societal branches. Analysts accidental the onslaught has small effect connected Hezbollah’s manpower, but could disrupt its communications and unit it to instrumentality tighter information measures.

What is the concern connected the border?

Hezbollah fired 140 rockets into bluish Israel connected Friday, saying it was targeting subject sites successful retaliation for overnight Israeli strikes into confederate Lebanon. There was nary contiguous study of casualties.

It was a continuation of the adjacent regular drumbeat of exchanges implicit the borderline since the Gaza warfare began successful October. The exchanges person killed immoderate 600 radical successful Lebanon – mostly fighters but including astir 100 civilians — and immoderate 50 soldiers and civilians successful Israel. It has besides forced tens of thousands of radical to evacuate homes adjacent the borderline successful some Israel and Lebanon.

Hezbollah person Hassan Nasrallah has promised retaliation for the physics instrumentality bombings, raising fears of an escalation from the group. But Hezbollah has besides proved wary of further stoking the situation – it has not carried retired its vows of revenge from Israel’s sidesplitting of a apical commander, Fouad Shukur, successful July.

Hezbollah says its attacks against Israel are successful enactment of Hamas. This week, Nasrallah said the barrages won’t extremity – and Israelis won’t beryllium capable to instrumentality to homes successful the northbound – until Israel’s run successful Gaza ends.

As warring successful Gaza has slowed, Israel has fortified forces on the borderline with Lebanon, including the accomplishment this week of a almighty service part that took portion successful immoderate of the heaviest warring successful Gaza. It is believed to see thousands of troops, including paratrooper infantry units and artillery and elite commando forces specially trained for operations down force lines.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this week declared the commencement of a "new phase" of the warfare arsenic Israel turns its absorption toward Hezbollah. "The halfway of gravity is shifting to the northbound by diverting resources and forces," helium said.

What is Israel planning?

Israeli officials accidental they person not yet made an authoritative determination to grow subject operations against Hezbollah – and person not said publically what those operations mightiness be. This week, the caput of Israel’s Northern Command was quoted successful section media arsenic advocating for a crushed penetration of Lebanon.

A U.N.-brokered truce to their 2006 warfare called connected Hezbollah to propulsion backmost 29 kilometers from the border, but it has refused to, accusing Israel of besides failing to transportation retired immoderate provisions. Israel is present demanding Hezbollah retreat 8 to 10 kilometers from the borderline – the scope of Hezbollah’s anti-tank guided missiles.

Israel and Hezbollah’s 2006 warfare was a devastating monthlong combat triggered erstwhile Hezbollah fighters kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers successful a cross-border raid.

In that war, Israel heavy bombarded confederate Lebanon and Beirut and sent a crushed penetration into the south. The strategy, aboriginal explained by Israeli commanders, was to inflict the maximum harm imaginable successful towns and neighborhoods wherever Hezbollah operated to deter them from launching attacks.

It became known arsenic the "Dahiyeh Doctrine," named aft Beirut suburbs wherever ample areas were levelled during the war.

But Israel could person a much ambitious and arguable extremity this time: to prehend a buffer portion successful southbound Lebanon to propulsion backmost Hezbollah fighters from the border.

A combat to clasp territory threatens a longer, adjacent much destructive and destabilizing warfare – recalling Israel’s 1982-2000 concern of confederate Lebanon.

What would beryllium the interaction of a full-blown war?

The fearfulness is that it could crook retired adjacent worse than the 2006 war, which was traumatic capable for some sides to service arsenic a deterrent ever since.

The 2006 warring killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and an estimated 1,100 Lebanese civilians and near ample swaths of the southbound and adjacent parts of Beirut successful ruins. More than 120 Israeli soldiers were killed and hundreds wounded. Hezbollah rocket occurrence connected Israeli cities brought the warfare to the public, sidesplitting dozens of civilians.

Now, Israel estimates that Hezbollah possesses immoderate 150,000 rockets and missiles, immoderate of which are precision-guided, putting the full state wrong scope of Hezbollah fire. Israel has beefed up aerial defenses, but it is unclear whether it tin support against the aggravated barrages expected successful a caller war.

Israel has vowed it could crook each of confederate Lebanon into a conflict zone, saying Hezbollah has embedded rockets, weapons and forces on the border. And successful the heightened rhetoric of the past months, Israeli politicians person spoken of inflicting the aforesaid harm successful Lebanon that the subject has wreaked successful Gaza.