‘Sleeping with an elephant:’ What will a Republican or Democrat win mean for Canada?

Pierre Trudeau famously described surviving adjacent to the United States arsenic “sleeping with an elephant,” a sentiment his lad is intimately alert of amid this year’s tumultuous and polarized American election.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has apt reflected connected his father’s words astir Canada’s proximity to the U.S.: “one is affected by each twitch and grunt.”

The U.S. is Canada’s closest neighbour and largest trading spouse and who wins the White House successful November volition beryllium successful complaint during the reappraisal of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico statement successful 2026.

While Vice-President Kamala Harris and erstwhile president Donald Trump attack commercialized differently, some are selling protectionist policies that could origin uncertainty for Canada.

“We’ve done this before,” Trudeau said precocious erstwhile asked astir some statesmanlike candidates saying they’d propulsion the reappraisal of the important commercialized pact.

“We tin bash it again if we request to.”

Harris has been campaigning connected her ballot against the trilateral statement and has made comments successful enactment of the Biden administration’s Buy American procurement rules.

Meanwhile, Trump’s professed emotion of tariffs is the centrepiece of his agenda. He antecedently projected a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — pushing it upwards of 50 per cent successful caller interviews.

“To maine the astir beauteous connection successful the dictionary is ‘tariff’,” Trump said Tuesday.

The rhetoric rings alarm bells northbound of the border. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports spell to the U.S and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross-domestic merchandise is derived from trade.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce earlier this period released a study suggesting Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs would trim the size of the system betwixt 0.9 and 1 per cent, resulting successful astir $30 cardinal per twelvemonth successful economical costs. Things would beryllium adjacent worse if different countries retaliated with tariff walls of their own.

Trump’s archetypal medication demonstrated however susceptible Canada is to America’s whims erstwhile the erstwhile president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiation of CUSMA, commonly dubbed “the caller NAFTA,” was a cardinal trial for Ottawa pursuing Trump’s victory.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the updated trilateral pact a “victory for each Canadians,” and experts accidental it was much mean than Trump primitively threatened.

But Trump’s commercialized typical Robert Lighthizer critically recounted the renegotiation, penning successful his publication that astatine 1 constituent “NAFTA was hanging connected by a thread.”

“With Trump successful complaint he’s decidedly a precise volatile individual,” said Laura Dawson, an adept connected Canada-U. S. relations and the enforcement manager of the Future Borders Coalition.

“And his impact planetary stableness and information and planetary relations with the United States are going to beryllium important — and not successful a bully way.”

Canada has taken lessons from his archetypal presidency. Trump followed a reasonably orthodox Republican commercialized docket punctuated by explosive bursts of idiosyncratic attention, Dawson said. He handed astir work for the commercialized narration to a much predictable Lighthizer.

Alec Beck, president of the 5th legislature territory for the Republican enactment of Minnesota, said helium believes talks astir Trump arsenic an isolationist are overstated. Beck, whose authorities shares an 885-kilometre borderline with Canada, said some countries indispensable enactment unneurotic and tariffs are a atrocious idea.

“They mightiness consciousness bully but it’s a sweetener high,” the Republican said earlier this month.

If Harris wins, determination volition beryllium much mean relations based connected established patterns and rules, said Aaron Ettinger, a authorities prof astatine Carleton University successful Ottawa.

It’s expected the vice-president volition travel the way laid by President Joe Biden, which brought immoderate stableness but not overmuch change. He mostly kept Trump’s tariffs successful place, contempt promises to reverse them.

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Biden besides signed an enforcement bid to revoke the licence for the Keystone XL, which would person transferred lipid from Alberta to Nebraska.

Dawson said she expects a Harris medication would proceed nationalist and protectionist actions.

Harris has campaigned connected returning manufacturing jobs to the U.S. It is simply a large slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s unspeakable if you are Canada.”

The interaction of these policies connected Canada-U. S. relations mightiness not beryllium wide to voters, who get down the America archetypal slogans.

Jeremy Washington says helium believes electing the Republican statesmanlike campaigner would assistance some countries. The 27-year-old, who was astatine a caller Trump rally successful Butler, Pa., said alteration is needed “because the things that person ruined … America person besides affected Canada, similar unfettered immigration, precocious lodging prices, the currency seeming similar its worthless.”

Experts person warned the commercialized and tariff threats volition besides bring costs for Americans.

Dawson cautioned Trudeau’s squad during a furniture retreat successful August that nary substance who wins the U.S. presidency, Canada volition person to enactment harder to support existing benefits of integrated commercialized and travel.

Canada volition trust much connected one-off lobbying and advocacy to get peculiar attraction arsenic some Republicans and Democrats determination distant from the information of humanities commercialized deals.

Experts and concern groups person been sounding the alarm astir Canada’s changing relation to its closest ally. Many accidental the narration betwixt the 2 countries shifted from being strategical to transactional arsenic Canada became little captious compared with different places successful the world.

A study from the autarkic Expert Group connected Canada-U. S. Relations, which includes erstwhile diplomats, argumentation advisers and concern leaders, warned Ottawa was “sleepwalking” up of the 2026 commercialized pact review. That July study described Trump’s existent narration with the Liberal authorities arsenic “chilly astatine best.”

Dawson said Canadian concerns won’t beryllium appeased successful the adjacent fewer weeks up of the election. It won’t beryllium wide what either campy truly has successful store for the Canadian narration until agelong aft November.

“I americium overmuch much acrophobic successful however we are successful this trajectory, successful these falling dominoes, that are going to beryllium moving done that caller NAFTA review.”