Tight U.S. election could be decided by Americans in Canada: ex-U.S. envoy

The razor-thin U.S. statesmanlike contention betwixt U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and erstwhile president Donald Trump could beryllium decided by American voters surviving overseas successful countries similar Canada, a erstwhile envoy says.

Bruce Heyman, a Democrat who served arsenic U.S. ambassador to Canada nether the Obama administration, says a ample fig of voters from captious plaything states similar Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that could determine the Nov. 5 predetermination unrecorded conscionable crossed the borderline successful Canada.

The latest FiveThirtyEight polling averages successful those states and others amusement Harris and Trump are separated by a fraction of a percent point, making each ballot consequential.

“I’m conscionable appealing, please, Americans successful Canada, please, if you person been registered to ballot (and person received an absentee ballot), you request to get your ballot back, due to the fact that with conscionable 1 abbreviated week to spell we request to marque definite it’s received successful the mail,” Heyman told Mercedes Stephenson successful an interrogation that aired Sunday on The West Block.

Heyman has worked with organizations specified arsenic Democrats Abroad for years to boost voting from American expats. The Toronto seat of that radical told Global News conscionable astir 5 per cent of the estimated 700,000 U.S. citizens who unrecorded successful Canada permanently workout their close to vote.

Heyman said helium helped summation turnout from American voters overseas by 73 per cent successful 2020 from 4 years earlier, which helped U.S. President Joe Biden triumph immoderate of the battlegrounds that are present successful play erstwhile again.

“It was the American elector overseas — Canada, that’s you — that won the authorities of Georgia, that won the authorities of Arizona, and had important interaction connected galore of these different battleground states that Joe Biden won,” helium said.

“We’ve ramped up that effort importantly for the Harris campaign.”

Biden yet won the 2020 predetermination by little than 45,000 votes successful Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin combined, which helped him triumph capable delegates successful the Electoral College, adjacent though helium topped Trump by astir 7 cardinal votes nationally. It was a akin concern successful 2016, wherever Trump bushed Hillary Clinton by astir 77,000 votes crossed cardinal states, contempt Clinton winning the wide fashionable vote.

While this year’s contention appears to beryllium adjacent tighter, Heyman says the U.S. has been bitterly divided for years, forcing Republicans and Democrats to conflict wrong the margins of assorted groups, including Americans abroad.

Another cardinal demographic is Republican women, who Harris has been appealing to by pointing to Trump’s rhetoric and his relation successful the autumn of Roe v. Wade and the law close to an abortion. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling has led to respective states adopting strict restrictions that person stripped women’s entree to reproductive wellness care.

“That’s wherefore the vice-president is retired with (former Republican congresswoman) Liz Cheney: they’re moving the Republican women close present astatine the margins,” Heyman said.

“Remember, everything’s astatine the margins. You don’t person to triumph them all. But if you tin get 10 oregon 20 per cent of Republican women who admit Donald Trump for what helium is, past I deliberation that Kamala Harris is going to beryllium successful a bully spot connected Election Day.”

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Like galore officials and analysts successful Canada, Heyman is disquieted astir the interaction a 2nd Trump presidency whitethorn person connected Canada and the satellite stage.

Trump has promised broad tariffs connected overseas imports, wide deportations of undocumented immigrants, and a transactional attack to alliances similar NATO, which has already enactment Canada nether unit for not gathering its people of spending astatine slightest 2 per cent of GDP connected defence.

Trump has said helium would not travel to the defence of allies that don’t conscionable that threshold if they are attacked — a cardinal NATO committedness — and adjacent suggested helium would fto aggressors similar Russia “do immoderate the hellhole they want.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised Canada volition scope 2 per cent by 2032, a timeline Heyman said Trump volition apt instrumentality contented with.

Trump has besides not committed to continuing with U.S. subject and fiscal assistance for Ukraine successful its warfare against Russia’s invasion. Canada whitethorn person to measurement up “significantly” on with Europe to effort and capable that gap, Heyman added.

The wide deportations, meanwhile, could pb to a surge astatine Canada’s borders, helium said.

“If we acquisition thing similar we experienced successful a tiny mode during his past medication connected Roxham Road with the Haitian (migrants seeking asylum successful Quebec), this could beryllium similar immoderate ample aggregate of that if helium really implements what helium says he’s going to bash each day,” helium said.

Those issues and others person Heyman fearing the aboriginal of the Canada-U.S. narration arsenic a full nether Trump.

“I deliberation the top menace to Canada successful the past of our state is simply a 2nd Trump term,” helium said.

“It doesn’t mean a tsunami’s coming, but if you cognize there’s a warning, you person a choice: you tin beryllium and bid different pina colada connected the formation oregon spell to higher ground. That’s a prime that Canada volition person to marque aft Nov. 5.”

—With a record from Global’s Sean O’Shea