Trump updates Iran peace deal effort to reflect new realities, analysts say

WASHINGTON — 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s bid overtures toward Iran this week — made arsenic helium signed a directive to enactment the state nether “maximum pressure” for malign behaviour — awesome a revived argumentation that immoderate analysts accidental has evolved from his archetypal word arsenic helium adapts to Iran’s caller circumstances.

Trump made his overture successful a Wednesday station connected his Truth Social platform, saying helium seeks a “Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which volition fto Iran peacefully turn and prosper” successful instrumentality for ensuring that the Islamic Republic “cannot person a Nuclear Weapon.”

A time earlier, Trump besides told a quality league with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “I would emotion to beryllium capable to marque a large woody [with Iran], a woody wherever you tin get connected with your lives, and you'll bash wonderfully.”

In 2020, during Trump’s archetypal term, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and past a elder adviser, made a similar, if much muted, entreaty to Iran's then-President Hassan Rouhani, successful an interrogation with VOA.

“For President Rouhani, I would accidental it’s clip for the portion to determination forward. Let’s halt being stuck successful conflicts of the past. It’s clip for radical to get unneurotic and to marque peace,” helium said.

At the time, Trump said a cardinal extremity of his archetypal "maximum pressure” run was to negociate a caller bilateral statement to extremity Iran’s perceived malign behaviors that helium said were not sufficiently addressed by Tehran’s 2015 atomic woody with satellite powers. Trump withdrew the United States from that woody successful 2018 and started the unit policy.

Trump revived his “maximum pressure” argumentation by signing a statesmanlike memorandum Tuesday, directing a bid of economical and ineligible measures to antagonistic Iranian activities that endanger U.S. nationalist interests. The papers highlighted Iran’s improvement of atomic weapons-related capabilities, ballistic missiles and its determination aggression done enactment of proxy forces.

‘Higher ambitions and much tools for pressure’

The caller Iran argumentation is “qualitatively different” from what Trump pursued successful his archetypal term, Brian Katulis, a elder chap of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told VOA.

“It has higher ambitions and much tools for pressure,” helium said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded to Trump's caller argumentation Friday, saying Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 atomic woody shows that negotiating with the U.S. "is neither rational, nor intelligent, nor honorable, and [we] should not prosecute successful negotiations with it.”

Iranian authorities media said Khamenei made the remark portion speaking to a gathering of aerial unit personnel. They besides quoted him arsenic issuing the pursuing informing to the U.S.: "If they endanger us, we volition endanger them. If they transportation retired their threat, we volition transportation retired our threat. And if they disrupt the information of our nation, we volition decidedly disrupt their information arsenic well."

Iran agelong has denied seeking atomic weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said Iran suspended an progressive atomic weapons programme successful 2003, but Israel, a U.S. ally, said successful 2018 its agents successful Tehran stole documents indicating the Iranian authorities had covertly continued that program.

Trump’s caller “maximum pressure” memorandum includes 2 circumstantial measures that were salient features of his archetypal word run — seeking to thrust Iran’s export of oil, its highest revenue-earner, to zero and calling for a snapback, oregon return, of planetary sanctions the U.N. Security Council lifted nether the 2015 atomic deal.

In the archetypal announcement of caller sanctions successful Trump’s 2nd term, the U.S. Treasury Department connected Thursday, targeted Iran’s lipid exports by sanctioning an planetary web it said facilitates the shipment of “millions of barrels of Iranian crude lipid worthy hundreds of millions of dollars” to China, Iran’s apical lipid customer.

Trump’s goals of reducing Iranian lipid exports to zero and restoring planetary sanctions connected Iran were not afloat achieved successful his archetypal term.

An October 2024 study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Iran’s crude lipid and condensate exports reached a debased of 0.4 cardinal barrels per time successful 2020 "due to the U.S. reimposition of sanctions successful November 2018 and the diminution successful request due to the fact that of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Trump’s archetypal medication besides unilaterally declared a restoration of planetary sanctions connected Iran successful September 2020, but astir different U.N. Security Council members rejected the move. They asserted the U.S. had forfeited its close to trigger the instrumentality of planetary sanctions by quitting the 2015 atomic woody that lifted those sanctions.

One proviso of Trump’s caller Iran memorandum, mounting a extremity that was not explicitly stated successful his archetypal term, is ensuring neither Iraq nor the Gulf countries tin beryllium utilized by Tehran to evade sanctions.

Trump’s archetypal medication had tried to halt specified evasion by Iran, according to Elliott Abrams, a Council connected Foreign Relations elder chap who served arsenic U.S. peculiar envoy for Iran astatine the extremity of Trump’s archetypal term.

Responding to a VOA question successful a Federalist Society webinar connected Thursday, Abrams said, “There were points astatine which we said to the Emiratis, ‘Look, Dubai is being utilized by the Iranians to get astir sanctions. Close that down.’”

He said the 2nd Trump medication appears to beryllium giving that nonsubjective much nationalist attention.

Another caller diagnostic of Trump's unit run is its bid to “modify oregon rescind sanctions waivers ... that supply Iran immoderate grade of economical oregon fiscal alleviation ... related to Iran’s Chabahar larboard project.”

India has been processing a terminal astatine the Iranian larboard nether a 2016 statement and secured a waiver from the archetypal Trump medication successful 2018 to proceed the task to facilitate humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.

The Biden medication extended the waiver, but erstwhile India signed a woody past twelvemonth to run the Iranian larboard for a decade, Biden’s State Department said that “anyone considering concern deals with Iran, they request to beryllium alert of the imaginable hazard that they are opening themselves up to ... sanctions.”

'Enhanced' run seen

Jason Brodsky, argumentation manager of U.S. advocacy radical United Against Nuclear Iran, told VOA helium expects to spot Trump prosecute an “enhanced” maximum unit run that is tailored to the “changed geopolitical realities of 2025, alternatively than to 2018.”

One of those caller realities is simply a large rebound successful Iranian lipid exports, chiefly owed to what Brodsky said was lax Biden medication sanctions enforcement.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s October report, citing information from planetary vigor analytics institution Vortexa, said Iran’s lipid exports accrued to an mean of 1.5 cardinal barrels per time successful the archetypal 8 months of past year.

The Biden medication rejected accusations of lax sanctions enforcement made by critics of its Iran argumentation portion it was successful office, highlighting its sanctioning of hundreds of entities for Iran-related activities. But Biden’s treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, said successful April 2024 that Iran was “continuing to export immoderate oil” and added, “there whitethorn beryllium much that we could do.”

Other caller factors Brodsky cited arsenic reasons for Trump to heighten his maximum unit strategy see Iran’s advancement successful uranium enrichment during the Biden medication and Tehran’s caller determination losses. In the past year, Israel killed the leaders of Iran’s panic proxies Hezbollah and Hamas successful Lebanon and Gaza, portion Islamist rebels successful Syria ousted longtime Iran-backed person Bashar al-Assad from power.

But Brodsky said the caller maximum unit memorandum besides raises questions astir what Trump wants retired of a imaginable caller woody with Iran.

He noted the papers calls for ending the "[Iranian] regime’s atomic extortion racket" and asked whether this means Trump volition request that Iran halt uranium enrichment, arsenic Trump did successful his archetypal term.

“We don't person answers close now,” Brodsky said.