US election: How have the seven swing states voted in the past?

Vice President Kamala Harris and erstwhile US President Donald Trump are cervix and cervix successful polls arsenic millions of US citizens caput to voting stations on Tuesday.

Both campaigns person been laser-focused connected 7 cardinal plaything states that are apt to decide the eventual winner:  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Most US states thin heavily, oregon astatine slightest precise clearly, towards either Republicans oregon Democrats. Swing states – besides known arsenic battleground states – are the outliers, wherever enactment for some parties and their candidates is astir the same.

But the states that conscionable the barroom to beryllium categorised plaything states were not ever theatres that witnessed adjacent contests.

Here is simply a look astatine however these 7 states person swung successful erstwhile decades and much caller elections.

Arizona (11 Electoral College votes)

The southwestern authorities has agelong been a beardown Red state. Barring Democrat Bill Clinton’s triumph successful 1996, the authorities consistently voted for Republican candidates since 1952, erstwhile it backed Dwight Eisenhower.

Until 2020, erstwhile it each changed, and Biden won by 0.3 percent points implicit Trump, making Arizona plaything authorities territory.

According to canvass tracking level FiveThirtyEight, Trump is up successful the authorities by 2.1 percent points entering into Election Day. But that borderline – arsenic with each plaything states this clip – falls good wrong the borderline of mistake for polls. The authorities has much Republican registered voters (34.7%) than Democrats (30.5%). Others are third-party voters.

Here’s who Arizona voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Republican (51.0%)
• 2004: Republican (54.9%)
• 2008: Republican (53.6%)
• 2012: Republican (53.7%)
• 2016: Republican (48.7%)
• 2020: Democratic (49.4%)

Georgia (16 Electoral College votes)

This is different confederate authorities that usually votes Republican but swung Blue successful 2020. Since 1972, lone 2 Democrats managed to triumph here: Jimmy Carter, who was from the state, won successful 1976 and 1980, and Clinton won successful his archetypal election, successful 1992.

Trump won successful 2016 by 5 percent points implicit Hillary Clinton. But Biden flipped the state, winning narrowly – by 0.2 percent points – successful 2020.

Democrats are counting connected the state’s Black and migrant colonisation successful Atlanta to assistance Harris clinch a triumph this time, portion Republicans are hoping that Georgia’s bulk agrarian and achromatic colonisation volition propulsion it backmost to their fold. FiveThirtyEight has Trump up by 0.8 percent points.

Here’s who Georgia voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Republican (54.7%)
• 2004: Republican  (58.0%)
• 2008: Republican (52.2%)
• 2012: Republican (53.3%)
• 2016: Republican (50.8%)
• 2020: Democratic (49.3%)

North Carolina (16 Electoral College votes)

Like Arizona and Georgia, the confederate authorities has typically voted Red.

Since Lyndon Johnson successful 1964, lone 2 Democrats person won North Carolina: Jimmy Carter successful 1976 and Barack Obama successful 2008.

Trump won the authorities successful both 2016 (3.6 percent) and 2020 (1.3 percent).

He is successful the pb again, though by a tiny spread – 0.9 percent points – according to FiveThirtyEight.

One Trump run official, speaking to reporters past week, said it is the “one authorities that could wound you successful the a**”, betraying the team’s nervousness implicit the constrictive margins successful the state. Trump has returned to North Carolina to run astir each time successful the past week. A surge of early-voting Republicans gives the enactment immoderate hope, analysts say.

Here’s who North Carolina voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Republican (56.0%)
• 2004: Republican  (56.0%)
• 2008:Democrat (49.7%))
• 2012: Republican (50.4%)
• 2016: Republican (49.8%)
• 2020: Republican (49.9%)

Nevada (6 Electoral College votes)

A tiny authorities of 3 cardinal people, Nevada enjoys a spot of a bellwether status: Barring 1976 and 2016, it has voted for the eventual winner.

Voting successful caller elections has swung some ways, though since 2008, Democrats person won consistently. The authorities has a increasing migrant colonisation and ample numbers of third-party voters who could beryllium influential successful shaping the outcome.

In a file this week, Jon Ralston, exertion of The Nevada Independent, predicted that Harris has the edge: “There are a batch of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats.” As of Tuesday morning, Trump was up of Harris by conscionable 0.3 percent points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Here’s who Nevada voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Republican (49.5%)
• 2004: Republican (50.5%)
• 2008: Democrat (55.2%)
• 2012: Democrat (52.4%)
• 2016: Democrat (47.9%)
• 2020: Democrat (50.1%)

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)

It is the biggest prize among the plaything states, with astir Electoral College votes connected offer. And galore analysts judge that whoever wins Pennsylvania is apt to triumph the presidency – barring different surprises.

Voters successful the northeast authorities had voted for the Democratic Party campaigner consistently since Bill Clinton’s 1992 triumph – until Trump bushed the odds, and Hillary Clinton, successful the authorities successful 2016.

The authorities appears deadlocked present – and some campaigns held their last pre-election rallies successful Pennsylvania. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris was 0.2 percent points ahead, entering Election Day.

Here’s who Pennsylvania voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Democrat (50.6%)
• 2004: Democrat (50.9%)
• 2008:Democrat (54.5%)
• 2012: Democrat (52.0%)
• 2016: Republican (48.2%)
• 2020: Democrat (50.0%)

Michigan (15 Electoral College votes)

George HW Bush was the past Republican to triumph the predetermination successful the midwestern authorities until Trump shattered predictions to triumph Michigan successful 2016.

In 2020, Biden won the authorities backmost for Democrats, backed, among others, by the state’s ample Arab American colonisation – the largest successful North America. But the assemblage is present aggravated astatine Biden and Harris for their steadfast enactment for Israel’s brutal warfare connected Gaza and Lebanon, and galore person threatened to ballot for Green Party campaigner Jill Stein, oregon adjacent for Trump.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is 1 percent constituent ahead.

Here’s who Michigan voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Democrat (51.3%)
• 2004: Democrat (51.2%)
• 2008:Democrat (57.4%)
• 2012: Democrat(54.2%)
• 2016: Republican (47.5%)
• 2020: Democrat (50.6%)

Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes)

Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin had been a reliably Democratic authorities for respective predetermination cycles earlier Trump breached that fortress to triumph successful 2016. Before Trump, Ronald Reagan was the past Republican to triumph Wisconsin, successful 1984.

Biden won the authorities back, narrowly, successful 2020.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is 1 percent constituent ahead.

Here’s who Wisconsin voted for successful the past six statesmanlike elections:

• 2000: Democrat (47.8%)
• 2004: Democrat (49.7%)
• 2008:Democrat (56.2%)
• 2012: Democrat (52.8%)
• 2016: Republican (47.2%)
• 2020: Democrat (59.5%)