Iran’s big question about US election: Will Trump or Harris seek diplomacy?

Tehran, Iran – When the United States elects its president, the interaction of its prime is felt astir the world, and fewer countries are arsenic straight affected arsenic Iran.

But arsenic the US votes connected Tuesday successful an predetermination successful which Vice President Kamala Harris and erstwhile President Donald Trump are moving neck-and-neck, according to the last sentiment polls, Iran is grappling with a peculiarly challenging reality, analysts say: Tensions with Washington look poised to stay sky-high careless of who ends up successful the White House.

Democrat Harris and Republican Trump are gunning for the presidency astatine a clip erstwhile a 3rd large Iranian onslaught connected Israel appears astir definite and concerns implicit an all-out determination warfare persist.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a “tooth-crushing” response to Israel successful retaliation for its first-ever claimed aerial strikes connected Tehran and aggregate different provinces connected October 26.

Commanders with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are suggesting their adjacent enactment against Israel – which is expected to impact the Iranian service arsenic good aft four service soldiers were killed by Israeli bombs – volition impact much precocious projectiles.

Against this backdrop, some statesmanlike candidates successful the US person been expressing hardline views astir Tehran. Harris called Iran the “greatest adversary” of the US past period portion Trump advocated for Israel hitting Iranian atomic facilities.

At the aforesaid time, some person signalled that they volition beryllium consenting to prosecute diplomatically with Iran.

Speaking to reporters successful New York successful September, Trump said helium was unfastened to restarting negotiations connected a atomic deal. “We person to marque a woody due to the fact that the consequences are impossible. We person to marque a deal,” helium said.

Harris has antecedently besides supported a instrumentality to atomic talks though her code towards Iran has hardened much recently.

According to Tehran-based governmental expert Diako Hosseini, the large question for Iran amid each of this is which of the 2 statesmanlike candidates mightiness beryllium much prepared to negociate tensions.

“Trump provides excessive enactment to Israel portion Harris is highly committed to the mainstream US docket against Iran,” helium told Al Jazeera.

History of tensions

The past of the 2 candidates volition besides heavy interaction their imaginable aboriginal relations with Tehran.

A twelvemonth aft becoming president successful 2017, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 atomic woody betwixt Iran and satellite powers, imposing the harshest-ever US sanctions connected Iran, which encompassed its full economy.

He besides ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s apical wide and its 2nd astir almighty antheral aft the ultimate leader. Soleimani, the commander-in-chief of the Quds Force of the IRGC, was killed on with a elder Iraqi commandant by a US drone successful Iraq successful January 2020.

After taking bureau successful January 2021, the existent US president, Joe Biden, and Harris continued with the enforcement of Trump’s sanctions, including during the years erstwhile Iran was dealing with the deadliest outbreak of COVID-19 successful the Middle East, which killed adjacent to 150,000 people.

The Biden medication has besides considerably added to those sanctions, blacklisting galore dozens much individuals and entities with the announced purpose of targeting Iranian exports, limiting its subject capabilities and punishing quality rights abuses.

After an Iranian rocket onslaught connected Israel past month, Washington expanded sanctions connected Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors to negatively interaction its crude exports to China, which had rebounded and grew implicit the past fewer years contempt the sanctions.

Trump has claimed helium volition choke disconnected resilient Iranian exports done amended enforcement of the sanctions.

“Pursuing diplomacy with Trump is overmuch harder for Iran owed to the assassination of General Soleimani, but it’s not impossible,” Hosseini said.

“However, if a imaginable Harris medication is willing, Iran would not person immoderate large obstacles for nonstop bilateral talks. Nevertheless, Iran is good and realistically alert that careless of who takes implicit the White House arsenic president, diplomacy with Washington is present considerably overmuch much hard than immoderate different time.”

Since the US withdrawal from the landmark atomic accord, each dialog with the US – including failed efforts to revive the comatose atomic statement and a prisoner speech woody past year – has been held indirectly and done intermediaries similar Qatar and Oman.

‘Tactics mightiness change’

The authorities of President Masoud Pezeshkian, comprised of representatives from reformist to hardline governmental factions wrong the Iranian establishment, has tried to onslaught a code that projects some moderation and strength.

Pezeshkian said successful a code connected Monday that Iran has been engaged successful an “all-out economical war” and indispensable basal up to its opponents by boosting its section economy. He has besides repeatedly said helium wants to enactment to get the sanctions removed and is unfastened to talks with the West.

“It is unusual that the Zionist authorities and its backers support making claims astir quality rights. Violence, genocide, crimes and execution are down their seemingly neat facade and neckties,” the president said during his latest speech.

Speaking to authorities tv connected Monday night, Iran’s apical diplomat said Tehran “does not enactment that overmuch value” into who wins the statesmanlike contention successful the US.

“The country’s main strategies volition not beryllium impacted by these things. Tactics mightiness change, and things mightiness beryllium accelerated oregon delayed, but we volition ne'er compromise connected our fundamentals and goals,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

Araghchi travelled to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, connected Tuesday, wherever helium discussed the “threats posed by the Zionist authorities and the determination crisis” with apical officials, including service main General Asim Munir.

The IRGC continues to transportation retired a large-scale subject cognition successful the southeastern state of Sistan and Baluchistan bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, wherever determination person precocious been aggregate equipped attacks by a separatist radical that Iran believes is backed by Israel.

The Jaish al-Adl radical killed 10 members of the Iranian equipped forces successful the state connected October 26 successful a onslaught condemned by the United Nations Security Council arsenic a “heinous and cowardly violent attack”.

Since the attack, the IRGC said it has killed 8 members of the radical and arrested 14.