What happened in Maharashtra? Five reasons why Congress, MVA were routed

First, the MVA, shell-shocked by their ain awesome accomplishment successful the Lok Sabha, began fantasising astir occupying the main ministerial residence, Varsha, excessively early. Their overconfidence looked similar a morganatic extenuation of reality: Rising nutrient inflation, agrarian distress, younker unemployment, corruption allegations, a belligerent Manoj Jarange-Patil demanding Maratha reservation, and the large emotive contented of disrupting accepted Maharashtrian determination pride; the nationalist mortification of the lad of the towering property of Balasaheb Thackeray, and the modern-day maestro of Machiavellian politics, Sharad Pawar. Unbeknownst to them, the RSS, which had remained studiously indifferent successful June 2024 had already got into the enactment of knocking connected household doors. The RSS celebrates 100 years successful 2025: How could Nagpur beryllium reporting to a Congress-led conjugation whose person Rahul Gandhi regularly called them a unsafe menace to India’s secular future? The MVA underestimated Nagpur’s zealous engagement successful this election.

Second, the Congress section leadership, understandably cocky, made a calculated mistake successful not agreeing to endorse Uddhav Thackeray arsenic the CM look of MVA. It was Uddhav’s bold snapping of ties with the BJP that had resurrected Congress, till past sulking successful splendid isolation, and created the unsocial MVA experiment. MVA was a singular effort astatine forging an confederation of ideologically opposed parties. Uddhav had painstakingly redefined his inclusive Hindutva arsenic chiseled from BJP’s toxic, hate-spewing enterprise. Given the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena faction’s repeated assertions that Uddhav had betrayed his father’s arguable spiritual assertions, Uddhav surely knew that helium was connected a slippery slope against trenchant unyielding adversaries. Congress needed to reciprocate the favour successful the Assembly elections; their myopic ambitions prevented that. An Uddhav arsenic a CM look would person galvanised Sena supporters state-wide, who, astatine the core, stay household loyalists, and privation a Thackeray astatine the helm. With Shinde’s ain instrumentality arsenic a CM looking highly uncertain, the MVA could person capitalised connected a important SS ballot stock of 16-18 per cent successful the state, too respective borderline voters who liked Thackeray’s governance during Covid and his unassuming likeable demeanour. It is beyond uncertainty that SS supporters shied distant from the MVA arsenic they did not relish Nana Patole arsenic the large Kahuna. It was a atrocious call.

Third, with section issues dominating the authorities election, and the fashionable cognition gaining crushed that the MVA was safely ahead, Prime Minister Narendra Modi resorted to his accustomed modus operandi — dog-whistle authorities a la Ek hai toh harmless hai (we are harmless if we are united). To a layman unfamiliar with BJP’s divisive rhetoric, that would look to beryllium a resounding telephone for unity. In reality, it was brazen scaremongering. Safe from whom? Who is not letting India unite? Who are the enemies within, the 5th columnists? The UP CM had his ain line, and unneurotic they became combustible worldly for polarising politics. Judging by the results, it worked, portion it trampled masterfully implicit the caste-reservation telephone of the MVA. The MVA counter-attack connected Modi was overwhelmed by the Big Media cacophony which supports the strongman’s pitch. Hindutva is BJP’s trump card, a peerless governmental narrative. It seldom fails successful a state that has been repeatedly exposed to individuality chatter since 2014. Modi nationalised a provincial election.

Fourth, the stunning debacle of Haryana (although Congress and the BJP had identical ballot shares) had electrified the Mahayuti cadres, and enfeebled the MVA. The nationalist squabbles among the MVA enactment damaged perception; Nana Patole became a pariah temporarily. Seat-sharing dragged connected interminably, and that helped Mahayuti found the archetypal elector connect. The Ladli Behna scheme, which reflected the acute economical circumstances of mediocre households, became the Mahayuti’s USP, with the MVA appearing clueless, to combat a intelligibly opportunistic ploy of a specified Rs 1,500 per month. The MVA would really treble that magnitude to Rs 3,000 nether the Mahalaxmi scheme, but the manifesto came conscionable 10 days earlier D-day. If the MVA had gone ballistic connected the Mahalakshmi Scheme with a period to spare, they would person importantly dented the existent nonaccomplishment of women’s vote. My conjecture is that rational economists wrong the MVA took over, possibly caught successful the mathematical gridlock of fiscal profligacy. It was mediocre politics. First, you win, past you enactment retired your finances.

Fifth, the MVA forgot the cardinal rule of authorities successful the property of AI, 5G and societal media: A time tin beryllium a agelong clip successful politics, hide a week. Perhaps 5 months was excessively much; elections are ne'er a perfunctory ceremonial affair. Like sports, adjacent the raging favourite has to triumph the rubric — nary 1 surrenders to Manchester City oregon Novak Djokovic. It is ne'er implicit till the past ballot is counted. Congress had to bash the dense lifting, but it would extremity up with the lowest onslaught rate; it floundered doubly back-to-back. But successful some Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand, a stronger savvier determination confederation spouse stood rooted. Politics needs a 24×7 engagement model. The Bharat Jodo Yatra was a magnificent march; Congress received immense governmental dividends. But a caller charismatic idiom was needed, beyond the formulaic trope. For the expansive aged party, the large interest is that it is refusing to larn from unpardonable mistakes. It has mislaid 5 states wherever it was a wide frontrunner: Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana and present Maharashtra. It blundered large successful Rajasthan too. It is ne'er excessively precocious to reboot, but Congress’s duplicate failures wrong months enactment India’s antiauthoritarian aboriginal astatine large risk.

If Congress needs immoderate inspiration for the future, it should look astatine its chap partner, Hemant Soren and his woman Kalpana Soren. Jailed, harassed, and facing a vicious hatred campaign, a fabricated complaint of forced demographic alteration connected relationship of Bangladeshi infiltration from a take-no-prisoners BJP, the JMM enactment remained resilient. The tribal communities of Jharkhand ended up defeating BJP’s poisonous play. The BJP which led successful a bulk of Assembly seats successful the 2024 LS elections, was near nonplussed, and saying: What happened?

The writer is simply a erstwhile Congress spokesperson.