Does Imran Khan conviction threaten Pakistan’s PTI-government negotiations?

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the person of the absorption and a subordinate of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the talker of the country’s National Assembly, connected Thursday, it seemed similar the longstanding impasse betwixt the authorities and the nation’s astir fashionable party might yet beryllium resolved.

However, conscionable 24 hours later, Imran Khan, erstwhile premier curate and PTI founder, was sentenced to 14 years successful situation by an accountability tribunal connected charges of misuse of authorization and corruption.

The 2 sides had initiated negotiations precocious past twelvemonth connected respective contentious issues, including the merchandise of imprisoned PTI leaders – whom the enactment labels “political prisoners” – and addressing alleged electoral fraud successful past year’s controversial elections.

So far, 3 rounds of talks, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, person taken place, with PTI presenting its charter of request successful the past meeting.

The authorities is expected to respond to those demands wrong 7 days. Yet, Khan’s condemnation has reignited concerns that the past 3 years of governmental agitation could return, plunging Pakistan backmost into chaos arsenic the state grapples with information and economical crises.

Aasiya Riaz, associated manager of the autarkic deliberation vessel Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), emphasised the value of continuing dialogue.

“Talks aimed astatine meaningful outcomes, for the involvement of the country, indispensable proceed,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Both sides, the establishment-backed authorities and the PTI, mightiness revert to their respective tactics of unit and agitation, respectively. This would pb to chaos and uncertainty, but eventually, they would person to instrumentality to the negotiating table,” Riaz added.

Once a favourite, present a pariah

Imran Khan was ousted successful April 2022 done a parliamentary ballot of nary confidence. He alleged a conspiracy betwixt Pakistan’s almighty military, his governmental rivals and the United States to region him from power.

The military, considered Pakistan’s astir influential powerfulness broker, has straight ruled the state for astir 3 of its 76 years since independence. While nary premier curate successful Pakistan’s past has completed their tenure, 3 of 4 subject dictators ruled for astir a decennary each.

Khan, who was erstwhile thought to bask the military’s backing, roseate to powerfulness successful August 2018 earlier falling retired of favour.

Both the US and the subject denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a important crackdown connected PTI, with Khan starring aggregate agelong marches and protests, railing against the establishment, arsenic the subject is euphemistically known successful Pakistan.

Things came to a caput connected May 9, 2023, when Khan was concisely detained successful the Al-Qadir Trust case – the corruption lawsuit successful which Khan was convicted connected Friday.

His merchandise wrong 2 days did small to quell the unrest arsenic PTI supporters rampaged nationwide, targeting nationalist buildings, subject offices and installations, including the service office successful Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested, and much than 100 were tried nether subject laws, with more than 80 sentenced to 3 to 10 years successful prison. Khan besides faces charges of inciting mutiny and “terrorism” related to those events.

Negotiation challenges

A poster of jailed erstwhile Prime Minister Imran Khan is pictured connected a damaged conveyance aft an overnight information forces cognition against the supporters of Khan’s PTI enactment successful Islamabad, connected November 27, 2024 [Aamir Qureshi/AFP]

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s August 2023 apprehension and ineligible obstacles to PTI’s information successful elections, the party’s candidates secured the highest fig of seats successful the February polls.

However, with Khan down bars, the PTI’s enactment staged respective protests successful Islamabad, pressuring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s authorities to merchandise him.

In November, PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it the “final call”. Clashes with instrumentality enforcement dispersed the march, and PTI claimed astatine slightest 12 of its workers were killed, a fig the authorities denies.

The PTI, successful its written acceptable of demands, has appeared to backmost down from its insistence connected the reversal of predetermination results.

But the enactment has urged the authorities to signifier 2 abstracted probe teams, with the mandate to analyse the events of May 9, 2023, and November 26 – the time of the march to Islamabad – past year. It has besides continued to property for the merchandise of its “political prisoners”.

Abuzar Salman Niazi, a PTI halfway committee member, clarified the party’s stance.

“We are not asking for enforcement orders to merchandise people. We request an extremity to judicial interference. If idiosyncratic is granted bail, they should not beryllium arrested successful a caller lawsuit instantly after,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

Negotiations volition continue, Niazi added, noting that the existent demands are conscionable the beginning.

“The authorities was offered the accidental to instrumentality enactment connected these brushed demands. We person different demands going ahead, but these are conscionable to commencement off, and we privation to spot authorities enactment to initiate these investigations into the May 9 and November 26 incidents,” helium added.

Aqeel Malik, the government’s ineligible affairs spokesperson, said helium besides remains optimistic astir the talks going on, contempt Khan’s conviction.

“Court proceedings and dialog are abstracted matters. We person 7 days to respond to PTI’s demands, and the premier curate has already formed a squad to measure them,” Malik told Al Jazeera.

Reconciliation oregon deadlock?

Some analysts judge the PTI’s demands correspond a climbdown and connection the authorities a accidental astatine reconciliation.

Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based governmental analyst, noted that the PTI’s omission of grievances astir the February 2024 elections could easiness negotiations.

“This allows the authorities to presumption itself arsenic acting for stability,” Ijaz said.

On the different hand, governmental commentator Fahd Husain said that the PTI demands look “fairly impractical” astatine this stage.

“Both commissions they question lucifer complaint sheets, and galore related matters are already successful court,” Husain told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the government’s ineligible spokesperson, emphasised the request for clarity successful PTI’s demands.

“For instance, the PTI says governmental prisoners should beryllium released, but they ne'er gave america immoderate database of who bash they mean. It appears to beryllium an open-ended thing, including radical who were progressive successful the May 9 oregon November 26 incidents. So, I deliberation this is astatine a precise nascent stage, but we person 7 days to enactment connected them,” helium added.

“Positive development”

Over the past 3 years, Khan has repeatedly accused the military, peculiarly Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir, of being liable for his party’s plight.

Despite the military’s insistence that governmental negotiations are not its domain, a caller gathering betwixt existent PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no narration to Imran Khan) and Munir successful Peshawar has raised eyebrows.

PTI hailed the gathering arsenic a “positive development” and claimed it presented demands to Munir. However, subject sources said that the gathering focused solely connected Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s security.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a state ruled by the PTI, borders Afghanistan and has witnessed a bid of attacks that Pakistan blames connected equipped groups that question structure successful Afghanistan.

But authorities officials, who are besides portion of the negotiating team, lashed retired astatine the “politicisation” of the gathering with the service chief.

“No nonstop talks are happening extracurricular the government’s negotiating team,” Senator Irfan Siddiqui asserted successful a property briefing successful Islamabad connected Thursday.

Ijaz, the Islamabad-based analyst, however, viewed the gathering arsenic significant.

“If dialog with the service has begun, past the cases and convictions against Khan go irrelevant,” helium said.

The roadworthy ahead

But distrust betwixt the PTI, the authorities and the subject could inactive derail talks, analysts warn.

The consequences of that, PTI’s Niazi says, volition permission the enactment with nary different enactment but to resume its assertive presumption and spell into agitation mode erstwhile again.

“What different enactment bash you deliberation we have, too going backmost connected streets and protesting? We are trying to clasp negotiations keeping the greater bully of the state and nationalist successful mind, but the onus is connected the government. They person to show a bigger relation to marque the dialog a success,” the Lahore-based PTI person said.

However, the Islamabad-based Husain said that the 1 anticipation that could “substantially” alteration things successful Pakistan would beryllium signals from Washington, DC, wherever Donald Trump is expected to instrumentality oath arsenic President connected Monday.

“If Donald Trump’s administration intervenes, it could assistance PTI. Otherwise, the enactment appears to person tally retired of options,” helium said.