Donald Trump opens up big lead in our election model: Are Kamala Harris' best weeks behind her and where are the 27,000 voters who could decide who wins?

Kamala Harris whitethorn person enjoyed her astir palmy run weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election exemplary which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead.

The exemplary crunches each the latest canvass data, arsenic good arsenic decades worthy of predetermination results positive economical indicators, to cipher who has the champion accidental of winning the electoral assemblage successful November.

It inactive shows Harris with the champion accidental of claiming triumph successful the fashionable ballot (it gives her 50.8 percent enactment present and a 65 percent accidental of finishing with much votes successful November).

But state-by-state numbers each amusement the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the wide vantage erstwhile it comes to winning the White House.

It gives him a 55.2 percent accidental of victory. Harris is connected 44.6 percent, with a precise tiny accidental of a tie. 

The champion mode to recognize what it each means is to ideate moving the exemplary aggregate times with each the antithetic permutations and combinations for each the antithetic states. When each of those are run, Trump wins connected mean 55.2 percent of the time. 

That is an summation of 4 points since Monday and 9 points since his post-debate low.

Either way, it shows the contention volition beryllium adjacent contempt the monumental events of the past 2 months oregon so, erstwhile President Joe Biden dropped retired to beryllium replaced by Harris, and Trump survived 2 assassination attempts.

Callum Hunter, information idiosyncratic astatine J.L. Partners, said a batch could hap betwixt present and Election Day, but the existent inclination was clear.

'Things are continuing to determination against Harris,' helium said.

'While September saw her summation crushed arsenic a effect of the statement and changes successful ballot access, things person started to settee backmost to wherever they were astatine the commencement of September.

'If existent trends proceed (although these person lone been successful spot for a week oregon so) past we whitethorn spot Trump instrumentality a much factual pb successful the contention implicit the coming fewer weeks. 

'September seems to person been Harris' precocious constituent and trends suggest that this precocious has travel to an end.'

Harris enjoyed record-breaking fundraising instantly aft entering the race. And her canvass numbers boosted. 

She besides bested Trump, by astir measures, successful their statement earlier this month.

But the predetermination exemplary suggests that her vantage successful the fashionable ballot is balanced by Trump's enactment successful immoderate of the states that volition determine the outcome.

So the exemplary suggests Pennsylvania has moved further into the Trump column. his probability of winning authorities is present 58 percent, an eight-point summation connected wherever helium stood instantly aft the debate.

Trump's probability of winning Pennsylvania has accrued again and present stands astatine astir 58% - an 8 constituent betterment connected his post-debate debased of 50%.

Yet arsenic things stand, helium leads by little than one-point of the ballot successful the state, oregon astir 27,000 voters. 

They could beryllium the ones who yet determine who occupies the White House successful January due to the fact that if the exemplary is tweaked to springiness Pennsylvania to Trump, past the erstwhile president wins predetermination 100 percent of the time. 

Other predetermination models amusement things moving successful Trump's absorption aft a fig of affirmative polls. 

A nationalist Quinnipiac Poll showed him 1 constituent up and a New York Times/Siena Poll gave him the pb successful the captious Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. 

For now, the effect is that Trump simply has much paths to powerfulness than his rival.