Gaza ceasefire won’t last without political process, warn analysts

Beirut, Lebanon – The ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and the Palestinian radical Hamas has brought immoderate optimism that Israel’s 15-month warfare connected Gaza volition yet end, and that Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners volition beryllium released.

But determination is inactive uncertainty from immoderate analysts that the deal, announced connected Wednesday and owed to statesman connected Sunday, volition spell up arsenic planned.

Israel’s information furniture greenlit the statement connected Friday evening, aft postponing a gathering that was initially scheduled for Thursday. Still, the part of the woody into 3 phases opens up the imaginable for its presumption to beryllium violated, oregon for the parties – peculiarly Israel – to backtrack connected its terms, analysts say.

The woody stipulates that a 42-day archetypal signifier – which volition spot a handover of immoderate captives and prisoners, an Israeli retreat from populated areas, and an summation successful assistance – volition beryllium followed by further phases wherever much captive exchanges volition happen, arsenic good arsenic a imperishable Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a sustainable ceasefire.

Experts who spoke to Al Jazeera fearfulness that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has resisted a ceasefire woody for months and insisted that Hamas indispensable beryllium destroyed, volition resume hostilities aft the captives are recovered to ostensibly “punish” the Palestinian group, buttress Israel’s information and guarantee his ain governmental survival, portion someway blaming Hamas for the nonaccomplishment of the deal.

“Israel is precise bully astatine breaking ceasefires and making it look that it wasn’t its fault,” said Mairav Zonszein, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the International Crisis Group.

Temporary relief

The Gaza ceasefire was announced by outgoing United States President Joe Biden and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. US President-elect Donald Trump besides announced his backing – and it has been wide reported that it was unit from Trump, who is acceptable to instrumentality powerfulness connected Monday, that pushed ceasefire negotiations implicit the edge.

The woody aims to extremity a devastating warfare that has prompted ineligible scholars, rights groups and United Nations experts to impeach Israel of “genocide” owed to its argumentation of starving Palestinians and destroying services indispensable to prolong life. South Africa has besides launched a lawsuit astatine the International Criminal Court accusing Israel of genocide, and has been backed by galore countries.

Israel has killed much than 46,700 radical – men, women and children – and forcefully uprooted astir the full pre-war colonisation of 2.3 cardinal radical from their homes via attacks and alleged “evacuation orders”.

The warfare began aft a Hamas-led onslaught connected confederate Israel connected October 7, 2023, successful which 1,139 radical were killed and 250 taken captive.

Many of the Israeli captives were released successful an earlier ceasefire woody backmost successful November 2023 and those remaining are expected to beryllium released for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, an speech that could unfold implicit respective weeks.

However, Zonszein believes the woody could illness aft that point.

“This [deal] volition supply contiguous alleviation by getting humanitarian assistance successful and to supply for a merchandise of hostages and prisoners. The [deal] is much of an contiguous intermission than a semipermanent solution,” she told Al Jazeera.

Diana Buttu, a Palestinian ineligible student and a erstwhile negotiator with the Palestinian Liberation Organization, besides fears that the vagueness of the woody whitethorn let Israel to illness it astatine immoderate time.

One term, for instance, requires Israel to retreat backmost to the “border” of the Gaza Strip arsenic opposed to the 1967 border, which demarcates Israel’s borders from the occupied territory.

This wording, says Buttu, raises concerns implicit whether Israel volition really retreat afloat from the enclave.

“The statement is precise vague and determination are a batch of places wherever Israel tin – and volition – manoeuvre its mode retired of it,” Buttu told Al Jazeera.

Political fears

The ceasefire woody agreed upon connected Wednesday is astir the aforesaid arsenic an earlier 1 projected successful May, which was agreed to by Hamas but refused by Israel, which promptly went connected to invade Rafah successful confederate Gaza.

At the time, Biden warned Israel that Rafah, wherever hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians had gathered, was a “red line” retired of fearfulness that an penetration would exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation successful Gaza.  However, the US did not travel done connected its menace to punish Israel aft it sent troops into Rafah.

Israel’s determination was portion of a broader signifier by Netanyahu to torpedo ceasefire proposals, seemingly to support his fragile far-right conjugation unneurotic until helium regained capable popularity to tally successful a caller election.

Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir person exploited Netanyahu’s governmental fears to propulsion their ain agenda, specified arsenic keeping the warfare successful Gaza going indefinitely, experts say.

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are portion of Israel’s spiritual nationalist settler question and person threatened to permission the conjugation if Netanyahu inked a ceasefire, a determination that would perchance illness the authorities and trigger an election.

Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are again threatening to exit the conjugation if the existent ceasefire statement goes ahead. It’s uncertain whether those threats are specified posturing, oregon whether the 2 are consenting to effort and bring down Netanyahu.

“Everyone sees Netanyahu arsenic a ascendant unit successful Israeli politics, but it is singular however overmuch Smotrich and Ben-Gvir person been capable to exploit his governmental fears to prosecute their ain agendas,” said Hugh Lovatt, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the European Council connected Foreign Relations.

Netanyahu appears to person regained astir of his popularity since the Hamas-led onslaught connected October 7, which saw his support ratings plummet.

However, helium inactive appears wary of moving up with the ceasefire for fearfulness of his governmental survival.

On Thursday, Netanyahu said helium was “postponing” a furniture meeting required to o.k. the ceasefire and blamed Hamas for backtracking connected the presumption of the deal. The information furniture yet approved the woody connected Friday.

Mediators person said that Hamas has already accepted the proposal, arsenic it has done connected respective occasions since May.

“The Netanyahu contiguous is not the 1 of the past. He’s much fearful and he’s incapable to marque decisions, which has led to strategical paralysis,” said Lovatt.

The time after?

Since the opening of the Gaza war, the US has advocated for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which has immoderate power successful the occupied West Bank, to instrumentality to Gaza to govern.

The PA was calved retired of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which was signed by Israeli and Palestinian leaders and kicked disconnected a bid process with the ostensible purpose of bringing astir a Palestinian state.

For much than 2 decades, the bid process has been defunct owed successful ample portion to Israel expanding amerciable settlements successful the West Bank and imposing restrictions that person politically, economically and territorially chopped disconnected Gaza from the West Bank, according to a study by Human Rights Watch.

The PA is besides chiefly tally by Fatah, a Palestinian enactment that fought a little civilian warfare with Hamas successful 2007, starring to imperishable part successful the Palestinian nationalist movement.

The warfare saw the PA efficaciously kicked retired of Gaza and confined to the West Bank, wherever it enjoys constricted authorization nether Israel’s entrenched occupation.

Israel besides labelled Gaza a “hostile” territory and placed it nether a land, oversea and aerial blockade.

Any program to bring the PA backmost to Gaza worries Israel since it would politically and territorially reconnect the occupied areas and revive calls for Palestinian statehood, according to Omar Rahman, an adept connected Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs.

“If you person a agreed Palestinian territory nether a agreed Palestinian leadership, past Israel volition beryllium nether unit to enactment successful a governmental extremity game, and Netanyahu doesn’t privation that to happen,” helium told Al Jazeera.

In addition, experts told Al Jazeera they bash not spot Israel afloat withdrawing from Gaza successful a vacuum, chiefly owed to Israel’s fearfulness that Hamas could reassert power implicit the enclave and physique backmost its capabilities.

Netanyahu has antecedently said that Israel should person “overall information control” implicit Gaza for an “indefinite” play of time.

“The bittersweet past of Gaza shows america determination is simply a rhythm of escalation and deescalation due to the fact that determination is nary governmental model to code basal causes,” Lovatt said.

“Those who privation to resume warring successful Gaza volition apt person an accidental astatine immoderate point.”